We are finally here at the end of the NBA season. The NBA Playoffs are the best part of the season by far. Unlike the NFL where every game matters, the NBA regular season is really long. So, the playoffs pit the best teams against each other, and this year it appears the NBA got it right putting the 2 best to play for the title. Although no one stretches out the Finals more than the NBA.
NBA Finals Schedule
Game 1 – Thursday, May 30th at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ABC in Toronto
Game 2 – Sunday, June 2nd at 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central on ABC in Toronto
Game 3 – Wednesday, June 5th at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ABC in Oakland
Game 4 – Friday, June 7th at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ABC in Oakland
Game 5 – Monday, June 10th at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ABC in Toronto (if necessary)
Game 6 – Thursday, June 13th at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ABC in Oakland (if necessary)
Game 7 – Sunday, June 16th at 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central on ABC in Toronto (if necessary)
The Teams
Eastern Conference
The Toronto Raptors defied the odds. Down 2-1 against the Philadelphia 76ers in the Conference Semis and 2-0 against the red hot Milwaukee Bucks in the Conference Finals, the Raptors closed the deal. The trade for super player, Kawhi Leonard has clearly paid off. Leonard has carried this team through those tough match ups, including the game winner in Game 7 at home against Philly. He is the best 2-way player in the NBA, and after a criticized departure from San Antonio, he could become a Canadian legend. With that said, the NBA Finals will be played for the first time outside of the United States. Toronto makes its first Finals appearance in their 24 year history.
Beyond Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors were 8th in Points Against during the season and 2nd amongst the playoff teams holding opponents to 99.6 PPG. Beyond the defense, Toronto plays at a very slow pace, which befuddled the Bucks in the Conference Finals. The Warriors who have not scored under 100 points in any game during the playoffs will be a real challenge. Veterans with NBA Finals’ experience along with Kawhi like SG Danny Green and PF Serge Ibaka need to actually contribute, as do C Marc Gasol and PG Kyle Lowery who will need to play well for the Raptors to win. In addition, PF Pascal Siakam (who starts) has to be a legit threat and back up PG Fred VanVleet will need to continue his tear to make the bench viable.
Western Conference
The Warriors make their 5th straight NBA Finals and a chance to win 3 straight (4 of the last 5). The Warriors have revolutionized the NBA with their pace and space concept which was really the next step in the position-less basketball movement pioneered by the San Antonio Spurs. Although the Warriors did not win as many games as the Raptors, giving Toronto the home court advantage, the Ws are back to dominant even without Kevin Durant. With Durant, the Warriors are practically unstoppable, but actually without him Golden State has won 30 of its last 31 including the final 2 games against Houston in the Conference Semis and a series sweep of Portland in the Conference Finals. PG Steph Curry is back to his MVP level since the Durant injury, and his fellow “Splash Brother” SG Klay Thompson has been lights out. Add in, PF Draymond Green who returns to facilitator of the highest scoring offense in the playoffs, and you have a formidable team.
The real question for these Warriors is do they have enough depth to win the title without Durant. In the days before Durant, the Warriors ran 10 players deep with scorers in waves off the bench. Now, that bench has aged with Shaun Livingston playing sparse minutes and Andre Iguodala in the starting line up. That leaves the likes of PG Quinn Cook, the ghost of C Andrew Bogut and SF Alonzo McKinnie really does not strike fear in the hearts of man. The injuries to both Durant and C Boogie Cousins really is an exercise in attrition more than ability to play. If the Warriors have any foul trouble, especially on Steph Curry or Klay Thompson, then the Raptors can control the game. Of course, Durant (and Cousins) could come back this series, but I think it is a bad sign Durant is not traveling with the team to Toronto. If the Warriors win this title, then they will have most certainly earned it and should be in the pantheon of great teams.
Key Match Ups
Klay Thompson vs Kawhi Leonard – I’m not sure Klay will exclusively check Kawhi, in fact, I would guess that Draymond Green will log major minutes on him. However, given the structure of both teams – it makes more sense to put their best on ball defender on Kawhi. I’m anticipating that Steph will check Lowery, Iguodala on Danny Green, Draymond on Siakam, and Looney on Gasol. That way, Green can come off of Siakam to help on Kawhi. Iggy may also get some minutes on Kawhi. Still, if Klay can limit Kawhi, then the Ws are in great position to win it.
Kawhi Leonard vs Steph Curry – In the 4th quarter, I would expect that Nick Nurse may opt to put length on Curry over the normal match up in Lowery. Many think Kawhi is the best defender in the NBA, but I think Steph’s quickness and ability to make contested shots may backfire in this strategy.
Nick Nurse vs Steve Kerr – We all know players win the title, but I have to give some credit for adjustments in a high profile series. Nick Nurse thoroughly out-coached Mike Budenholzer in the Eastern Conference Finals. He made the key adjustment on Giannis, and that is the main reason they are playing for the title. Kerr has also been shrewd in this post-season. First the Boogie Cousins injury, then the Durant injury. Kerr has handled this team deftly to roll into the Finals. So, given that the teams are a lot more even without Durant on the floor, I actually think coaching will matter in this series. Pace is a key element, as Toronto wants to play slowly and get to the foul line a lot. The Warriors want a run and gun pace with the ball moving to all sections of the floor. Beyond the style of play, I think key defensive match ups and even substitutions at critical points of the game will determine the winner.
Key Numbers
Rebounding – The Bucks outrebounded the Raptors in every game but one, and in that game the Raptors only had a 1 rebound advantage. Toronto is not going to be able to be crushed on the glass in this series. They have the size, but Toronto is a -4.1 per game on the glass in the post season. They need to dominate the glass to win this series.
Shooting – The Warriors will not shoot under 32 percent from behind the arc most of this series like the Bucks. They are averaging 37% for the playoffs. Plus, the Bucks shot around 70% from the foul line in the ECF. Golden State is an 82% FT shooting team.
Efficiency – Toronto is a very good defensive team, but they are going to have to score better than 1.24 Points Per Shot (their playoff average). Even if they slow the pace, Golden State is the playoff leader at 1.34 PPS.
Prediction
Golden State will still win this series. The Raptors have to win Game 1 tonight. If they do, then we can have a series. A split in Toronto really isn’t good enough for the Raptors. So, I do think this series will be competitive without Durant, and I have a strong feeling he will not play. I see Warriors in 6 now. Kawhi will have at least 2 incredible games, and even if the Warriors lose the first 2 games, I believe in the Warriors to adjust and bounce back. I hope it will be a great series. Last year was disappointing, and as much as I don’t want the Ws to win yet another title, I appreciate the fact that the Warriors have been able to continue to win with the injuries.
Let the Finals begin!
Wegs