The NBA for the first time in 5 years is not a foregone conclusion who will play in the NBA Finals. After 4 straight years of Golden State versus Lebron’s Cleveland Cavaliers, for once we will have a different team in the East. However, we may even get a different team out of the West. On to the preview:

Eastern Conference Finals

2 Toronto Raptors vs 1 Milwaukee Bucks

Schedule (All Games on TNT):

  • Game 1 – Wednesday, May 15th – 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central
  • Game 2 – Friday, May 17th – 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central
  • Game 3 – Sunday, May 19th – 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central
  • Game 4 – Tuesday, May 21st – 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central
  • Game 5 – Thursday, May 23rd – 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central (if necessary)
  • Game 6 – Saturday, May 25th – 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central (if necessary)
  • Game 7 – Monday, May 27th – 8:30 PM Eastern/7:30 PM Central (if necessary)

The Teams:

Incredible Shot to Advance

The Bucks and the Raptors were actually the best teams in the regular season all year long. So, it is no surprise they would make it this far, although the Celtics may have been the team to knock off those Bucks. Yet, after a Game 1 loss, the Bucks destroyed the Celtics winning the next 4 games straight. Meanwhile, the Sixers pushed the Raptors to a Game 7, and Toronto needed a 4 bounce jumper by Kawhi Leonard at the buzzer to advance to the Conference Finals.

Raptors – 8th in scoring, 8th in Defense, 3rd in Scoring Differential, 17th in Rebounding – Raptors are a really good defensive team, but lack the scoring and rebounding that the Bucks bring.

Players: Kawhi Leonard is the best 2 way player in the NBA, and perhaps the best (although I think Durant is better). He carried Toronto past the Sixers, but the supporting cast has to be better to beat Milwaukee. On paper, PG Kyle Lowery, PF Pascal Siakam and C Marc Gasol should be a good group. However, they were relegated to watching Leonard most of the Sixer series. The bench was short with only C Serge Ibaka and PG Fred VanVleet giving the Raptors some pop. They need more from SG Danny Green to stretch the Bucks’ defense.

Bucks – 1st in Scoring, 10th in Defense, 1st in Scoring Differential, 1st in Rebounding – the Bucks statistically are the best team in the League.

The Unstoppable Force

Players: Giannis Antetokounmpo is the leader and likely MVP of the league. However, it is the Bucks’ supporting cast that gives them the edge in this series. With guys like SF Khris Middleton, PG Eric Bledsoe, C Brook Lopez and the return of SG Malcolm Brogdon, the Bucks have a better 5. Plus, their bench which was incredible against Boston keeps that high level with veterans like PG George Hill, SF Nikola Mirotic and SG Pat Connaughton. The Bucks play at a pace that will push Toronto to play efficiently and defend the entire court, which the Sixers could not do.

Key Match Ups:

  • Giannis vs. Kawhi – Not sure the Bucks will put these 2 guys head to head, but that would be really cool to see. The real match up is the Bucks’ defense against Kawhi until the other Raptors contribute. Leonard scored 243 of 648 points in the Semis for 37.5%. In close games, that percentage was higher (44.57% in Game 7). Giannis got better every game against the Celtics, but the entire team went with him.
  • Bucks Bench vs. Raptors Bench – The Bucks are deep. In the Semis, the Bucks bench scored 189 points in 5 Games!! That’s 33.45% of scoring. The Raptors, on the other hand, scored 118 points in 7 games – 18.21%. That’s not going to cut it.

Prediction: Bucks in 5, I’m a believer now. This team reminds me a lot of the Warriors prior to KD. They have multiple players who can score, and even with a dominate player like Giannis, it is impossible to key on him with all the guys who can attack the bucket or shoot the 3.

Western Conference Finals

3 Portland Blazers vs. 1 Golden State Warriors

Schedule (All Games on ESPN):

  • Game 1 – Tuesday, May 14th – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central
  • Game 2 – Thursday, May 16th – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central
  • Game 3 – Saturday, May 18th – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central
  • Game 4 – Monday, May 20th – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central
  • Game 5 – Wednesday, May 22nd – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central (if necessary)
  • Game 6 – Friday, May 24th – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central (if necessary)
  • Game 7 – Sunday, May 26th – 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central (if necessary)

The Teams: The Warriors have been considered the Champ since training camp, but key injuries to C Demarcus Cousins (quad) and the biggest injury in the NBA for years – SF Kevin Durant (calf), make the Warriors vulnerable. The Blazers lost PF Nurkic before the playoffs, but have overcome it so far with superior guard play with PG Damian Lilliard and SG CJ McCullom. The Warriors were able to advance past the Rockets using the old Ws model of spacing and cutting, but the Warriors do not have the depth they used to have.

Blazers – 6th in Scoring, 12th in Defense, 6th in Scoring Differential, 3rd in Rebounding – they are a really good team, but can they slow down the Ws?

Players: This team is really a duo of Lillard and McCullom who account for 54 Points Per Game or 48.56% of the offense. In the playoffs, that number has gone up. C Enes Kanter has provided a spark to this team in the Nurkic absence. He needs to continue that clip along with PF Zach Collins.

Warriors – 2nd in Scoring, 15th in Defense, 2nd in Point Differential, 11th in Rebounding – The Ws cruised in the regular season.

Steph Is Back!!

Players: PG Steph Curry was able to play poorly in stretches with Durant on the court. However, he was transcendent in Game 6 of the Rockets series in the 2nd half. SG Klay Thompson has been able to give the added scoring with Durant out. The guy who has been flying under the radar is position-less Andre Iguodala who has quietly averaged 13.5 PPG in the Semis. They will need that to continue if KD misses more time. Finally, Draymond Green played his game again against Houston – 13.2 PPG, 10.7 Rebounds/Game and 8.2 Assists/Game.

Key Match Ups:

Dame Plays Up for the Ws
  • Steph vs. Dame – The NBA is a point guard league, and you really don’t get much better than this one. Steph has not played at his MVP level all playoffs, but when they needed him he rose to the challenge in Game 6. Lillard is an Oakland guy, so he always plays the Ws with a chip on his shoulder. He has been incredible all year and besides
    Game 7 at Denver, just a stud.
  • Enes Kanter vs. Draymond Green – This may not be the match up all the time, but if the Warriors can limit the versatile big man, then the Warriors will not even need KD. Green makes guys like Kanter leave the lane opening the cutting offense that Golden State needs.

Prediction: Even without KD, I think the Warriors will win the series. It is just a matter of how many games. Without KD, it will be in 6 games. With him, it will be 5. Love the Blazers and want them to succeed, but I think their style plays right into the Warriors comfort zone.

Let the games begin!

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.