That’s right, it is that time of year again – the Triple Crown of Horse Racing. Saturday, May 4th gives us the 145th “Run for the Roses.” The largest bet horse race in the world.

Most Exciting 2 Minutes in Sports

I wrote last year about the Triple Crown, so to review, check out my post:

Triple Crown – General Info & Kentucky Derby Preview

Kentucky Derby 2019 Preview

May 4th – 6:50 PM Eastern/5:50 PM Central on NBC

Before unveiling the Field, the favorite Omaha Beach was scratched yesterday, which really opens up the race. I understand that since the Kentucky Derby and horse racing switched to the a Point System over greatest winnings for qualifying for the race that the Favorite is undefeated at Churchill Downs. So, with the prohibited favorite out of the field, then there are 3-4 horses with much closer odds.

(* – Note: Originally, I published the article changing the numbers of the horses with the Omaha Beach scratch, which was incorrect. Haikal has also been scratched the #11 horse. The numbers of the horses will remain the same, but the post positions outside of #11 and #12 will shift inside one position. I also just updated the odds based on the morning’s odds on 5/3/2019)

  1. War of Wills (20-1) – Owner: Gary Barber, Trainer: Mark Casse, and Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione – Coming off an injury, but a dangerous horse
  2. Tax (20-1) – Owner: R.A. Hill Stable, Trainer: Danny Gargan, Jockey: Junior Alvarado – Ran 2nd at Wood Memorial
  3. By My Standards (20-1) – Owner: Allied Racing Stable, Trainer: Bret Calhoun, Jockey: Gabriel Saez – 1st a Louisiana Derby
  4. Gray Magician (50-1) – Owner: Wachtel Stable, Trainer: Peter Miller, Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke – 2nd at UAE Derby
  5. Improbable (6-1) – Owner: St. George Farm, Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Irad Ortiz – 1st at Los Alamitos and 2nd at Arkansas Derby – Contender
  6. Vekoma (20-1) – Owner: R.A. Hill Stable, Trainer: George Weaver, Jockey: Javier Castellano – 1st at Blue Grass Stakes
  7. Maximum Security (10-1) – Owner: West. Gary and Mary, Trainer: Jason Servis, Jockey: Luis Saez – 1st at Florida Derby
  8. Tacitus (10-1) – Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Trainer: Bill Mott, Jockey: Jose Ortiz – 1st at Tampa Bay Derby and War Memorial – Contender
  9. Plus Que Parfait (30-1) – Owner: Imperial Racing, Trainer: Brenda Walsh, Jockey: Ricardo Santana – 1st at UAE Derby
  10. Cutting Humor (30-1) – Owner: Starlight Racing, Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Corey Lanerie – 1st at Sunland Park Derby
  11. Haikal – Scratched!!
  12. Omaha Beach – Scratched!!
  13. Code of Honor (15-1) – Owner: W.S. Farish, Trainer: Claude McGauhey, Jockey: John Velazquez – 1st at Fountain of Youth
  14. Win Win Win (15-1) – Owner: Live Oak Plantation, Trainer: Michael Trombetta, Jockey: Julian Pimentel – 3rd at Tampa Bay Derby
  15. Master Fencer (50-1) – Owner: Katsumi Yoshizawa, Trainer: Tsunoda K, Jockey: Julien Leparoux – Maiden from Japan
  16. Game Winner (5-1) – Owner: West. Gary and Mary, Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Joel Rosario – 1st at Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – Contender
  17. Roadster (6-1) – Owner: Speedway Stable, Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Florent Geroux – 1st at Santa Anita – Contender
  18. Long Range Toddy (30-1) – Owner: Willis Horton Racing, Trainer: Steven Asmussen, Jockey: Jon Court – 1st at Rebel Stakes
  19. Spinoff (30-1) – Owner: Wertheimer and Frere, Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Manny Franco – 2nd at Louisiana Derby
  20. Country Horse (30-1) – Owner: Shields Jr., McFadden, Trainer: Bill Mott, Jockey: Flavien Prat – 3rd at Arkansas Derby
  21. Bodexpress (30-1) – Owner: Top Racing, Trainer: Gustavo Delgado, Jockey: Chris Landeros – Maiden Horse

Predictions

There are a lot of factors here.

  1. Omaha Beach – The Favorite scratching opens the field and changes the race.
  2. 17th Post Position – The 17th post is really hard to win from, since that is the 2nd gate and outside horses cut that horse off traditionally – Roadster moves from the 17 to 16 changing their odds to Favorite.
  3. Rain in Forecast – Like last year, the rain is expected, which makes it a sloppy track. Sloppy tracks will slow the pace opening the door for more horses. Plus, the slop helps front runners if they can get to the front.
  4. Bob Baffert – He is on the verge of history with his 6th Kentucky Derby within his grasp. That would tie for the most in Derby history by a trainer.
  5. Rail Horses Rarely Win – The inside positions 1-3 do not yield a lot of winners which hurts War of Will’s chances.

To make my bets, I pull from a ton of sources to come up with my picks. Here are the experts sites I review:

Jody Demling – CBS Sportsline – https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/50773069/2019-kentucky-derby-uncanny-bettor-releases-full-leaderboard/

Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg – CBS Sportsline – https://www.sportsline.com/insiders/50805245/2019-kentucky-derby-horse-racing-legend-hank-goldberg-reveals-favorites-fades/

Kentucky Derby Experts –

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/expert-picks

Lastly, my Buddy Artemis Prime is a big horse racing guy. He likes Tacitus (8) and Game Winner (16) to win and Maximum Security (7) and Tax (2) to add to Exotics.

Wegs Bets:

First, I only bet about $75-100 on the Derby. I use an app to do it, but you can go to an Off Track Betting (OTB) Facility or even the actual race track in your area. I’m a conservative bettor, so I like to cover myself aka Hedge. Everyone wants to win the big money and so do I. I hit the Trifecta 2 years in a row in the Derby, but missed out last year. This year is a lot tougher without a clear favorite. My approach is to put an Across the Board bet on a horse virtually everyone likes to cover my bets. This year from what I’ve read, I’m fading Maximum Security. He seems to be a darling for some, but I understand he is very inconsistent and his win came against a not great field. At the moment, I’m also fading Roadster the current favorite. His odds adjusted considerably with the post change, and he could hit the Board. However, my experts do not have him in the mix at all. I’ll trust them this time.

This year, I’m going Tacitus (8) Across the Board for $10 – $30 Total – the idea here is if we wins the race, then I’ll get paid 6-1 for the Win, but also the Place (probably 3-1) and Show (2-1) money insuring a profit. Even if he hits 2nd, then I get the Place and Show money which should be close to covering half of my bets.

Second, I do try to put in 2-3 Exotic Bets. Exotics as you can read in last year’s post is a multiple horse bet. I bet the Trifecta at one level and Superfecta at a lower level. Trifectas pay out between 15 and 100 to 1. The first year I won the Trifecta I paid $5 to win $500 (I boxed it for like $30). The Superfecta is more like 1000 to 1 or better.

I always box my Trifectas and Superfectas. Boxing costs a lot more because you are paying for each possible outcome. However, it is worth the $30 to win $500. Otherwise, you have to hit it exactly as it comes in. The Box allows you to pick 3 or more horses you like and if they come in any order, then you win. In a race like this year, it is best to box.

Trifecta Box 1: $5 Box with Tacitus (8), Game Winner (16) and Improbable (5) – this is like a favorite Trifecta. $30 Total

Trifecta Box 2: $3 Box with Tacitus (8), Game Winner (16) and a longer shot horse I like – War of Will (1) – I’ll win more if this happens, so I bet less. $18 Total

Supefecta Box: $1 or less bet – Maybe even $0.50 – Tacitus (8), Game Winner (16), Improbable (5) and War of Will (1) – $12 Total on $0.50 Box

Finally, I pick one long shot, just for fun. Long shot for me in this category is 20-1 or longer odds. This year, I don’t have any horse that I’m locked in on. War of Will was 25-1 earlier this week, so I will pick someone else. I’ll go with Hammerin’ Hank’s horse, By My Standards (3) at 20-1 for $10.

Total bets = $100

Who do you like?

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.