It’s NFL Draft Week, so if you haven’t checked out who people think will go where, now is the time. I track 5 different Mock Drafters each year (I used to do 6, but Mike Mayock became GM in Oakland). Really, this is all speculation, but it is fun to talk about. Here are some basics to remember.
Mock Draft Basics
Most Mock Drafters are guessing who the team will take at each slot. So, it may not reflect who the Mock Drafter believes is a better player or even who they think the team should take. The truth is most Mock Drafters will use their contacts to speculate on who they will take.
Some Mock Drafts project trades between teams, which always happens. However, it is virtually impossible to predict those trades. Trades arise when certain players are selected leaving a scarcity at one position, and then teams will “trade up” to get a certain player before another team does. This is probably most common with Quarterback. 2 years ago, both the Texans and the Chiefs traded way up to get their current starting QBs, in that same draft, the Bears traded up one slot to take their QB.
Finally, when looking at these Mock Drafts that I check, it is good to see the positions selected. Most Mock Draft people will internally rate players at a position. So, after say the Top 10 selections, Mock Drafters will think – Team A needs an Offensive Lineman, so at #18, they will take the best Offensive Lineman on the Board. However, each Mock Drafter has likely determined the order of those lineman. This differs between Mock Drafters and then layers in the who they have heard the team likes. I know confusing, but the thing to remember here is Mocks are just that, not real. I find them informative and a good way to learn the players before Draft Day.
Here are the Mocks I follow:
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network
Charlie Casserly, NFL Network
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2019/mock-drafts
Chris Trepasso, CBS
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft/expert/chris-trapasso
Bucky Brooks, NFL Network
Charlie Campbell, Walter Football
http://walterfootball.com/draft2019charlie.php
You will notice that I do not follow the ESPN guys – Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, Jr. I respect those guys, but I refuse to pay for an ESPN Insider subscription for this information. So, check these mocks against those.
Here is my Composite Mock Draft based on the 5 I follow.
| Wegs Predictions | ||
| 1 | AZ | Kyler Murray, OU, QB |
| 2 | SF | Nick Bosa, OSU, EDGE |
| 3 | NYJ | Quinnen Williams, Bama, DT |
| 4 | OAK | Josh Allen, Kentucky, EDGE |
| 5 | TB | Ed Oliver, Houston, DT |
| 6 | NYG | Rashan Gary, Michigan, EDGE |
| 7 | JAC | Jawaan Taylor, Florida, OT |
| 8 | DET | Montez Sweat, Miss State, EDGE |
| 9 | BUF | Andre Dillard, Wash State, OT |
| 10 | DEN | Devin White, LSU, LB |
| 11 | CIN | Drew Lock, Missouri, QB |
| 12 | GB | Cody Ford, OU, G/C |
| 13 | MIA | Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State, QB |
| 14 | ATL | Jonah Williams, Bama, G/C |
| 15 | WAS | Devin Bush, Michigan, LB |
| 16 | CAR | Brian Burns, FSU, EDGE |
| 17 | NYG | Daniel Jones, Duke, QB |
| 18 | MIN | Garrett Bradbury, NC State, G/C |
| 19 | TEN | TJ Hockenson, Iowa, TE |
| 20 | PIT | Byron Murphy, Washington, CB |
| 21 | SEA | Clelin Ferrell, Clemson, EDGE |
| 22 | BAL | Marquise Brown, OU, WR |
| 23 | HOU | Chris Lindstrom, BC, G/C |
| 24 | OAK | Josh Jacobs, Bama, RB |
| 25 | PHI | Christian Wilkins, Clemson, DT |
| 26 | IND | Johnathan Abram, Miss State, S |
| 27 | OAK | Greedy Williams, LSU, CB |
| 28 | LAC | DK Metcalf, Ole Miss, WR |
| 29 | KC | Dexter Lawrence, Clemson, DT |
| 30 | GB | Noah Fant, Iowa, TE |
| 31 | LAR | Deandre Baker, Georgia, CB |
| 32 | NE | Rock Ya-Sin, Temple, CB |
Now, I will be fine tuning this over the next couple of days. The way I approach it is I like to maximize players who will be in the 1st Round. The players at the bottom are hard to predict, but it’s a all a guess. Then, based on need, move players around.
A Few things you see are:
- Only 1 RB taken in the 1st Round (Josh Jacobs)
- Only 2 WRs taken – there are 2 other guys possible, but given the other talented positions
- 4 QBs drafted in the 1st – Murray, Haskins, Lock and Jones
- 17 on Defense and 15 on Offense
I suggest you do your own Mock Draft to dig in. I’ll review some other round picks that you should track because after the first 40 picks, then it is hard to keep tracking players.
Wegs