This year’s NFL Draft Series continues digging into this particular Draft Class to see where the strengths and weaknesses are.

Basics

Please read my article from last year on Player Groupings and Evaluation to understand some of the terms used here.

Draft 101 – Part II: Player Groupings and Player Evaluation

Generally speaking, players are put into groups, so we can evaluate them to fit into NFL rosters in a given scheme. Each year, as the evaluation process goes on, the strength and depth of a given position emerges.

2019 Top Positions

Unlike 2018 and some other years, 2019 has some very deep positions.

Interior Defenders (DL) is the deepest position in the 2019 Draft. I’m counting 5 DL players in Round 1 and 14 players in this group to be selected in the first 3 rounds. In 2018, there were only 3 selected in Round 1 and 11 drafted through 3 Rounds. That may not seem like a huge difference, but that’s a 6.25% boost in Round 1 alone. So the position is very deep. Here are the top players in the Group:

Williams is the Man in the Middle
  • Quinnen Williams, Alabama, 6’3″, 303 lbs. – is the top guy on most Draft Boards. He is skilled interior lineman with good hands and also rushes the passer extremely well. His size and quickness blend will make him an immediate starter. At the moment, he is slated as the 3rd player off the Board. His one knock is lack of strength and thickness to ward of double teams.
  • Ed Oliver, Houston, 6’2″, 287 lbs. – is another very highly rated Defensive Tackle in this class. Houston is not the same caliber program as Alabama, but Oliver has rated extremely well in explosiveness. He was a 5 star HS recruit that decided to not play at premiere program. This athleticism will need to make up for his non-prototypical size at the position. He is a clear 1st Round talent rated around 5th overall.
  • Christian Wilkins, Clemson, 6’3″, 315 lbs., is one of 2 top flight Clemson Defensive Tackles with 1st Round grades. A very successful college career with 2 national titles and incredible stats. Whether that success will translate to immediate success on the next level is yet to be seen, but he is a blue chip prospect for sure. Good leadership qualities.
  • Dexter Lawrence, Clemson, 6’4″, 342 lbs., is the other Clemson Defensive Lineman that led the Tigers to the title. Lawrence is rated a step behind Wilkins, but Lawrence is a large human. He is the classic nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme and can take up blockers while still getting pressure on the QB. He is a unique talent in this draft.
  • Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State 6’4″, 301 lbs., was the leader of an incredible Bulldogs defense in 2018. Simmons should be very good on the next level and he could sneak into the 1st Round ahead of even Lawrence on some Boards. Simmons is a powerfully built and quick athlete for his size. He lacks the instincts of Williams, which brings him down the board.

Wide Receivers (WR) – The NFL is a passing league, so pass catchers will always be needed. In this draft, there are not really that many Top Flight guys in the 1st Round, but I still have 13 WRs that should go in the 1st 3 Rounds, which is just like last year when only 2 WRs went Round 1, but 10 in the 1st 3.

DK is a Beast
  • DK Metcalf, Ole Miss, 6’3″, 228 lbs., lit up the NFL Combine this year. The kid has crazy physical gifts – 4.33 40 time, 40.5″ vertical, and 134″ broad jump. However, he is not at the same skill level of a Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson. Yet, in a class that lacks top WR talent, Metcalf should be either 1st or 2nd off the Board for WR in the late teens or early 20s.
  • Marquise Brown, Oklahoma, 5’9″, 166 lbs. – well someone was catching all those passes the past 2 years with Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. Brown is quick, really fast and has great hands. Unlike Metcalf, who is a physical force, Brown is a route runner who can get separation through quickness and precision. He should be the 1st WR drafted, but either way is a Round 1 Talent.
  • AJ Brown, Ole Miss, 6’0″, 226 lbs.– looking at this WR class then you would think that the Rebels were incredible on offense. Brown is the better route runner of the 2 Ole Miss guys, but his tangibles are not as mind blowing yet still good. AJ will likely fall into the 2nd Round, but he is worthy of a 1st Round selection and may be initially more productive than Metcalf out of the slot.

Edge Rushers (DE/OLB) – Edge Rushers will always be important in the NFL to put pressure on the QBs in the league. This class is not as strong as 2018, but overall is still deep and will be highly valued. I’m estimating 6 1st Rounders from this group and 11 through 3 Rounds (2018 – 4 in Round 1, but 18 through 3 Rounds).

Bosa’s Gamble Will Likely Work Out
  • Nick Bosa, Ohio State, 6’4″, 266 lbs., Bosa has received a ton of publicity since he sat out virtually the entire season at Ohio State since he was the projected #1 Pick in the Draft. Most players have sat out Bowl Games, but Bosa shut down after only 3 games. Bosa, like his older brother, Joey, is quick, powerful and fast – 4.14 second 20 yard shuttle. That is the blend all teams want for their Edge players. Bosa should be the 1st Pick, but we all know the NFL over-values QBs.
  • Josh Allen, Kentucky, 6’5″, 262 lbs., not to be confused with the 1st Round QB from 2018, Josh Allen is a force. He has all the traits the NFL is looking for, and he will be drafted in the Top 5. He is more of a LB than DE. He is just a cut below Bosa, but I would not be surprised if he is the better pro. Good speed at 4.63 seconds and 20 Yd Shuttle at 4.23 seconds.
  • Montez Sweat, Mississippi State, 6’6″, 260 lbs., the pass rusher of that Bulldogs’ defense mentioned above with Simmons. This guy has shot up the Draft Boards in the evaluation period with 4.41 40 yard dash, 4.29 second 20 yard shuttle at 6.’6″. He is great potential and will be drafted in the Top 10.
  • Rashan Gary, Michigan, 6’4″, 277 lbs., A more hybrid DT/DE is probably a better fit in a 3-4 as a DE. Gary was the heart of that vaunted Wolverine defense. His production was unparalleled. He is fast for his size at 4.58 seconds and 4.29 second 20 yard shuttle. He should be a good pro and a 1st Round guy with Top 10 upside.
  • Brian Burns, Florida State, 6’5″, 249 lbs., is more of a LB than pure DE pass rusher given his size. So, he is more of a pass rush only guy. He has great measurables, but he will need to go to a team with a good fit with his skill set. His thinner frame will need additional strength. He should make the 1st Round.

2019 Weaker Positions

Quarterbacks (QB) – The QB is the most valuable position in the NFL which shows up both in the salaries paid (I see you Russell Wilson), and on the Draft Boards. Regardless of how strong a class is, a QB will be drafted in the Top 2 positions each and every year. This year, the class is poor compared to the past 3 years. I only have 4 QBs that should be drafted in the 1st 3 rounds, and all of them may go in the 1st Round. In 2018, there were 5 drafted in Round 1 and 6 in the Top 3.

Kyler Murray at #1 Overall
  • Kyler Murray, Oklahoma, 5’10”, 207 lbs., like every year, the hype around the top QBs really is ridiculous. I’ll give Baker Mayfield credit for having a good season last year (the #1 Overall Pick), but the other guys were not great. Murray was a 1 year starter as he sat behind Baker at OU. His size, to me, is a clear issue. Yes, he has a good arm for his size given his baseball background. QB Draft Ratings are not fool proof – Murray’s 6.25 puts him in the middle of the pack of QBs in the last 4 drafts. Patrick Mahomes was 5.87, and he is going to a legend. Baker was 6.04 (the lowest of the other top guys – Rosen 6.18 and Darnold 7.00). Wentz was 6.53 and Goff was 6.51. Trubisky was 6.31. So, he meets the smell test. I have an issue that a guy who was going to play baseball and only started 1 year will be the #1 Overall pick. He is more like a Top 10 guy and not worth the pick. Anyway…
  • Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State, 6’3″, 231 lbs., is more the prototypical size and mix for the position. Haskins hurt himself by running so slowly at the combine. His lack of elusiveness against elite speed could cost him at his size, as opposed to Josh Allen from last year who was much more athletic at that size. He will go in the 1st Round, but early signs pointed to the Giants at 6, now it is uncertain.
  • Drew Lock, Missouri, 6’4″, 228 lbs., Lock is a very good athlete, so he can make plays on the run. However, the open/air raid attack at Missouri has not translated very well for other Tigers’ QBs. In the draft process, a lot of people have Lock ahead of Haskins. I think I would go with the Buckeye over the Tiger here. In other years, Lock would not be a 1st Rounder, but he will go in the 1st for sure here.
  • Daniel Jones, Duke, 6’5″, 221 lbs., another guy getting a lot of buzz for the 1st Round is Jones. He has the measurables, but he does not dazzle in any area with middle level arm talent. I see a game manager type who can make some throws, but not the upside. He will go round 1, but should not.

Defensive Backs (DB) – Defensive Backs are combined here, but there are Cornerbacks (CB) and Safeties (S). Unlike the past 3 years are so, we have had elite CB or S at the top of the Draft – Jalen Ramsey, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Denzel Ward, etc. For a league that really values cover skills, this class may have the same depth (I project 20 to be selected in first 3 Rounds – 19 last year, but only 3-4 1st Round talents vs. 6 in 2018.).

Let’s Get Greedy
  • Greedy Williams, LSU, 6’2″, 185 lbs., the top rated guy in the Draft, but really probably around 20th Overall. Williams has the length, but needs to build strength for press coverage. However, that 4.37 40 time shows good make up speed.
  • Byron Murphy, Washington, 5/11″, 190 lbs., probably the actual best cover corner in the draft. His instincts and ability to press will translate into a Day 1 starter, but his 4.55 40 time may translate to slot corner. Still will be drafted around 20-25th overall.
  • Deandre Baker, Georgia, 5’11”, 193 lbs., Baker is a good press corner who wins with physicality. He may be prone to interference calls in the NFL and will need to work on technique plus could struggle against NFL tall WRs. Baker could get into the 1st Round.
  • Rock Ya-Sin, Temple, 6’0″, 192 lbs., easily the best name in the Draft. Ya-Sin will need to be ready to compete against elite talent where at Temple he was able to dominate lesser competition with his superior physicality. He has a 1st Round grade, but could slip to the early 2nd given minimal experience.
  • Nasir Adderley, Delaware, 6’0″, 206 lbs., is the lone Safety in this group that could make the 1st Round. A good blend of size and speed, but like Ya-Sin will need to step up in class to play in the NFL. His experience at both CB and S could bode well in the NFL.
  • Johnathan Abram, Mississippi State, 5’11”, 205 lbs., Abram is a really a run stopper at Safety. He can deliver a hit, but can he cover to stay on the field? So, he is a scheme fit player for a team that has a good deep safety or they can play him at LB in a Nickel or Dime set. I don’t think he gets in the 1st Round.

So, those are the key groups in the Draft to watch. We all know that RBs are completely undervalued now in the NFL, so it is no shock that maybe only 1 RB will go in the 1st. Offensive Line – C/G and OT – continue to not be as readily available as the defensive counterparts.

The next installment will work through all 32 teams and their Team Needs in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.