With March Madness behind us, I’ll finally focus on the NBA again. The NBA Playoffs give us the best basketball the world has to offer. Finally, the most talented players on Earth play for something with maximum effort. The 82 game season is a real grind, and as such, it is hard for teams to give full effort every game. In the playoffs, it is win or go home in best of 4 of 7 series with a 2-2-1-1-1 format meaning 2 at the higher seed then 2 at the lower followed by alternating games to close the series. The best teams typically win, but besides the last 5 years with the dominance of Golden State, there were some possibilities for upsets. Let’s review the match ups and my predictions.
Eastern Conference
First Round
8 Seed – Pistons vs. 1 Seed Bucks – The Pistons had to win to get in last night, and actually their last 2 to hold off Charlotte. So, their playoff run actually began a couple weeks ago. The Bucks have been the best team in the NBA, and the should be MVP in Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Pistons need to muck up the game to win in this series. They hold their opponents to 107.3 PPG, which is top half in the teams remaining. Their huge front line with Power Forward (PF), Blake Griffin and Center (C) Andre Drummond could slow down the Bucks who led the league in scoring (118.4 PPG). The key match up is Antetokounmpo aka the Greek Freak against Griffin, but I don’t think Griffin can slow him down alone. So, can the Pistons team defense make others beat them? I don’t think they can here. The Pistons have the worst road record of the teams remaining. So, I would not be surprised if this one is a sweep, 4-0.
Prediction: Bucks win 4-1
7 Seed Magic vs. 2 Seed Raptors – The Raptors have quietly flown under the radar to the 2nd best record in the NBA. The acquisition of Small Forward (SF) Kawhi Leonard and the new coaching of Nick Nurse have led to big numbers. Orlando was one of the surprise teams this year closing the regular season on a 4-game winning streak to get up to the 7 Seed. The Magic front line of C Nikolas Vucevic and PF Aaron Gordon are a very skilled and athletic combination. However, beyond Kawhi, the Raptors have 6 other guys who average double figures. So, it is a true team effort, and the reason they got Kawhi was for the playoffs. The Magic may put up a bit of a fight, but the Raptors should move on.
Prediction: Raptors win 4-1
6 Seed Nets vs. 3 Seed Sixers – The Nets were another nice surprise in this NBA season. Like the other lower seeds so far, the Nets needed to win their way in late. However, the Sixers are so talented, maybe the most talented team in the East. With Shooting Guard (SG) Jimmy Butler, C Joel Embiid, Point Guard (PG) Ben Simmons, and SF Tobias Harris, the Sixers are a team that has the potential to win the East. The real question for the Sixers is will they commit to playing defense. The Sixers are the worst defense in the East. In this match up, the young Nets with PG D’Angelo Russell and SF Joe Harris will be no match for the Sixers.
Prediction: Sixers win 4-0
5 Seed Pacers vs. 4 Seed Celtics – This should be a fun one. The Pacers despite losing their top scorer in SG Victor Oladipo to injury early on stayed in the playoff hunt behind their great defense, the best in the NBA (104.7 PPG). The Pacers may be outgunned in this one, though. The Celtics have not played as expected, and falling to the 4 Seed with the roster they have is really kinda tragic. PG Kyrie Irving has been questioned for his lack of leadership. Young players that thrived in last year’s playoffs, SF Jason Tatum and PG Terry Rozier have struggled to find their roles alongside SF Gordon Hayward and Irving. The Celtics played incredible defense in the playoffs last year, but even though they are on the top end, have taken a step back. So, I think the Celtics advance here due to talent on the floor, but not without a fight.
Prediction: Celtics win 4-2
Conference Semis
4 Seed Celtics vs. 1 Seed Bucks – Wow, what a match up. The NBA’s best player and his supporting cast in the Bucks against the underachieving but massively talented Celtics. This will be a real test of coaching by Celtics’ Coach Brad Stevens. I think he finds a way to neutralize the Greek Freak in this series. The Celtics have not gelled offensively, but they were built to play for a title. As well as the Bucks have played and had an incredible season, I can’t see the Bucks beating the Celtics. Probably a mistake pick here, but Celtics will win a tough series.
Prediction: Celtics win 4-2
3 Seed Sixers vs. 2 Seed Raptors – Another great match up here. The talented Sixers against the more gritty and cohesive Raptors. I actually don’t think this series will be as close as advertised. The Raptors are built to win in the post season. They have a closer in Leonard, and they have several players who can hit shots if the defense tries to collapse on him. Plus, defensively, the Sixers are suspect. I appreciate what the GM tried to do in adding players like Butler and Harris during the season. However, in my opinion, those additions have not helped the growth of Embiid and Simmons. That lack of development will show up against a Raptors team that has been there before and not had enough against the Cavs in past seasons. Raptors advance in this one.
Prediction: Raptors win 4-2
Conference Finals
4 Seed Celtics vs. 2 Seed Raptors – For the conference title, these teams will match up with very similar metrics. Both teams play very good defense and provide balanced scoring. To me, the Raptors are a team that made the right moves to get to the Finals. Leonard is a stud. The coaching change may not have been necessary, but they have responded positively. The Celtics have not improved over last season. They may roll if they actually follow my predictions. Man to man, the Celtics probably have more talent, but there is something missing here. They lack the cohesion I see with Toronto. Both teams have been deep before, so it comes down to the best player on the floor which is Kawhi Leonard. I like them in this one for an epic series.
Prediction: Raptors win 4-3
Western Conference
First Round
8 Seed Clippers vs. 1 Seed Warriors – The Clippers after the Tobias Harris trade were thought to be tanking, but they did not. Jerry West and his keen eye for talent has allowed the Clips to get to 14 games over .500. SG Lou Williams is silk and SF Danilo Gallinari can fill it up, but can they guard? You are not going to outscore the Warriors, and the Clippers are the worst defense remaining in the playoffs. These games may be extremely high scoring, but I don’t see the Clippers winning a single game against the Champs.
Prediction: Warriors 4-0
7 Seed Spurs vs. 2 Seed Nuggets – Leave it to Spurs’ Coach Gregg Popovich to get his team in the playoffs yet again behind an incredible 32-9 home record behind the 1-2 punch of PF LaMarcus Aldridge and SF Demar DeRozan. The Nuggets have had an incredible season with the best home record in the league at 34-7 (that high altitude helps), but their defense is really good. Plus, they have guys who can score in C Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray. I think Pop will have a good game plan to hang with this team, and so the Nuggets will win but not without a fight.
Prediction: Nuggets win 4-2
6 Seed Thunder vs. 3 Seed Blazers – An intriguing match up here with teams that both threatened to be much better earlier this year. The Blazers did suffer a key injury to C Jusuf Nurkic late in the year which may doom them if not in this match up the next. The Blazers strength is their guards with Damian Lilliard and CJ McCollum who combine for 46.9 PPG. The Thunder have super stars with PG Russell Westbrook and SF Paul George. So, the match up comes down to can C Steven Adams and PF Markieff Morris outplay former Thunder big man, C Enes Kanter and PF Al-Farouq Aminu. I think they will, and the Blazers will lose again in the first round.
Prediction: Thunder win 4-2
5 Seed Jazz vs. 4 Seed Rockets – It is a shame these 2 teams have to play in the first round. It is really more of a Conference Semis match up and likely the best series of the first round. It is a total conflict of styles. The Jazz are the best defensive team in the West, and the Rockets are known for their offense (even if they are not at the top of the conference in scoring this year). The Rockets have the guys to beat this defense in SG James Harden and PG Chris Paul. I just wonder if they lack the toughness they had a year ago losing Trevor Ariza. The Jazz rely heavily on SG Donovan Mitchell to score, so others will need to contribute to beat the Rockets. I don’t see that happening.
Prediction: Rockets win 4-2
Conference Semis
4 Seed Rockets vs. 1 Seed Warriors – The rematch of the Conference Finals from a year ago is repeated here. Many think the only team to take out the Warriors is the Rockets. Again, it is a shame the Rockets were not the 3 Seed to avoid this match up now. I think this one will be another classic. The main issue I have in this one for Houston is that James Harden has been over utilized during the season in Paul’s absence from injury. I think that usage will show up in this series. The Warriors have struggled to integrate C DeMarcus Cousins into their smooth system, but I don’t think it matters. The triumvirate of SF Kevin Durant, PG Steph Curry and SF Klay Thompson will be too much yet again for the Rockets. Do I want to see an upset? Yes, I do, but I really can’t see it here.
Prediction: Warriors win 4-2
6 Seed Thunder vs. 2 Seed Nuggets – Another intriguing series here. The Thunder have not advanced deep since Durant departed for Oakland. I think this year will be different. I like this Nuggets team, but they lack the requisite playoff experience. Plus, I trust Paul George and/or Westbrook to hit big shots to win games late. I don’t think I trust Jamal Murray yet. So, I think the Nuggets’ great season comes to an end.
Prediction: Thunder win 4-2
Conference Finals
6 Seed Thunder vs. 1 Seed Warriors – We have some star power in this conference finals. The players on the floor are an All Star team with Curry, Durant, Westbrook and Paul plus Cousins and Thompson, not to mention Warriors’ Draymond Green. I don’t think the Thunder have the fire power to keep up with the Warriors. I actually think they will roll this team after the Rockets’ series. Sure, maybe I will be wrong, but wake me up when the Warriors play in an elimination game with Kevin Durant.
Prediction: Warriors win 4-1
NBA Finals
Raptors vs. Warriors – Maybe not the match up the NBA wants or the masses, but I think this is who you will see in June. The Raptors are the most cohesive team from the East with a balanced scoring attack, plus a top player in Leonard. The Warriors are just the class of the league. I don’t think anyone can hang with the Ws, but this Raptors’ team has elements that could take out the Champs.
Let’s make the case for Toronto: 1) Kawhi Leonard can neutralize Kevin Durant. I don’t think you can stop Durant, but Kawhi will make him work for his points and more importantly challenge Durant to defend. As good as Lebron is/was in the last 2 finals, he is past his prime on defense and it showed against KD. 2) Lowry and Van Vleet are not going to stop Steph Curry, but they will make him guard the pick and roll. If you want to beat the Ws, you have to put Curry in screen/roll to expose him. 3) Toronto front line is better than the W’s – C Valanciunas is a beast and PF Serge Ibaka can rim protect and stretch the floor. I don’t like how Cousins fits on this Warriors’ squad. So, this is a clear Toronto advantage assuming they can keep up with the undersized Warriors.
With all that said, the Warriors will still win the series. Klay Thompson is the one guy that makes the difference here. Toronto has no answer for him. Danny Green cannot keep up with him, and if you try to guard him with Kawhi, then who takes Durant. I think Klay and the bench guys like Iguodala and Livingston that the Ws will put the Raptors in a situation to play small removing their advantage with Valanciunas. It should be more competitive than last year’s Finals, but only slightly.
Predictions: Warriors win the Title in 6, 4-2
What do you think?
Wegs