The Final Four did not disappoint. Tightly played contests that came down to the final minutes.
Game 1 – Another Cavalier Miracle
#1 Virginia needed a miracle to get to Minneapolis, but their defense and resilience in the face of complete failure in 2018 has been inspiring. #5 Auburn by default was this year’s Final Four Cinderella as the lowest seed. Yet, the teams were really even. Personally, I thought Auburn would try to run against UVA, but maybe due to a depleted roster or Virginia’s uncanny knack to control the pace made the game right where Virginia wanted it. In the first half, the pace was at a crawl. The game went back and forth at first, but UVA was able to get out to a 5 point lead after a De’Andre Hunter (14 points, 5 rebounds) layup with 6:45 left in the half. Then, Auburn went on a run to close the half, something they have done in each of their last 12 straight victories. This time, they closed on a 14-6 run including the Anfernee McLemore (9 Points, 12 rebounds) triple giving Auburn the 31-28 lead at the half.
In the second half, Virginia started to impose their will on the Tigers. Auburn went cold and the Wahoos continued to hit clutch jumpers led by Ty Jerome (21 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists) who’s three with 5:24 to play gave Virginia a ten point lead at 57-47. It seemed like Virginia was going to go to the title game. However, give Coach Bruce Pearl and his team credit. They dug to a deeper level and went on a 14-0 run over the next 5:15. Virginia couldn’t hit a shot, and Mamadi Diakite (2 points, 6 rebounds, 5 blocks) missed 2 free throws with 2:17 to play which allowed Auburn to grab the lead. So, UVA trailing by 4 at 61-57 with ball needed something to go their way. Jerome was able to find Kyle Guy (15 points, 4 assists) in the corner for a three that cut the lead to 1 with 9 seconds to go. Auburn’s Jared Harper (11 points, 3 assists) who went 11 for 11 from the line in the Elite 8 hit his first but missed his second opening the door for Virginia. Auburn decided to foul Virginia, but not before Ty Jerome dribbled the ball off his leg, picked the ball up with 2 hands (which is a clear double dribble), then he was fouled, but Auburn had 2 fouls to give. Auburn fouled Virginia again on the inbounds ticking the game down to 2 seconds with Virginia with the ball on the side with one shot left. On the play, Jerome found Guy in the corner, he elevated shot, missed, but unfortunately for Auburn, Samir Doughty (13 points, 5 rebounds) undercut Guy on the shot giving Guy 3 free throws with 0.6 seconds to play. Guy cooly nailed the first 2 free throws to tie the game, then Coach Pearl tried to ice him with a timeout, but Guy hit the 3rd to take the lead. Auburn’s inbounds pass didn’t lead to a look. Virginia advances to the Title Game for the first time, and they will have a time to win a title one year removed from losing to a 16 seed just last year.
Final Score: #1 UVA 63 #5 Auburn 62
Game 2 – Texas Tech Strangles Spartan Offense
#3 Texas Tech knew they were going to be in a rock fight against #2 Michigan State. Both teams played good defense, and the offenses run very deliberate sets for scores. The first half was no surprise, as the teams combined for 44 points, yikes! Neither team could gain a real advantage, but at least one guy on the floor was ballin’. Tech’s Matt Mooney (22 points, 3 rebounds) scored 9 points, and his jumper with 2:09 to go in the half gave Tech a 5 point lead. It took a Cassius Winston’s three to get to within 2 for Michigan State. The score at the half was 23-21.
In the second half, that Tech #1 ranked defense dominated Sparty. The Red Raiders opened the half on a 22-12 run, as Mooney was hitting jumpers and no one on the Spartans could hit a shot. Michigan State looked dead in the water. Coach Izzo’s group was not done yet. No one can grind better in an ugly game than the Spartans who held Tech scoreless for a key 5 minute stretch. That defense allowed the woeful offense (31.9% FG) to cut the lead to 1 point on the freshman, Aaron Henry’s (11 points, 3 rebounds) reverse layup at 52-51 with 2:55 to play. In the final minutes, Coach Chris Beard had to find offense, and he turned to their best scorer in Jarrett Culver (10 points, 5 rebounds) who finally made things happen. He hit a jumper to get the lead to 3. After some empty possessions, Culver split a pair of free throws to get the lead to 4 with 1:32. Then, the dagger, as after a steal by Tech, Culver hit a triple that put the lead to 7 and seemed to break the backs of the Spartans with 1:01 to play. The Red Raiders got stops and hit 3 of their final 4 free throws to win comfortably and advance to their first title game ever.
Final Score: #3 Texas Tech 61 #2 Michigan State 51
Championship Preview
#3 Texas Tech vs. #1 UVA (-1.5, Total 117.5) – 9:20 PM Eastern/8:20 PM Central on CBS – These are two outstanding defensive teams. So, the total tells you the story here. This game will be played in the 50s or low 60s. Every possession in games like that are very valuable, and if one team can get out to a double digit lead, then it is like being down by 20. The coaching match up is really one that is from the new school. Tech’s Chris Beard has been successful at every level and in 3 short seasons is playing for his school’s first every National Championship. He is a grinder that gets his players to go to war. Last year, Texas Tech lost 4 starters and 5 of their top 7 players and they went deeper this year with graduate transfers and development. In my opinion, Texas Tech has played the best basketball in this tournament. On the other side, Virginia has been the best team in the country all year. The metrics show you that – they have been #1 in KenPom virtually all year. People discounted how good Virginia is this year because of the loss to UMBC last year. However, this Virginia team has a good offense. They play deliberately, but they have multiple guys who can score, and Tony Bennett is a class act. This is the future of the NCAA with 2 of the best young coaches in the business.
Inside the numbers, Texas Tech is the best defense in all of college basketball, and they have grounded the best offense in Gonzaga in the Elite 8, limited one of college’s best point guards in Cassius Winston to 4 of 16 shooting and forcing 4 TOs, and don’t forget holding Michigan to 16 points in 24 minutes in the Sweet Sixteen. Tech will strangle your offense. UVA is now listed as the 5th best defense, but we know that their defense has been incredible all year and for several seasons. The Pack Line method makes you hit jumpers and limits penetration. Virginia held down a high octane offense in Auburn to 38.2% shooting and 62 points. So, the difference in this game will be who can score on that tough defense.
Texas Tech is rated as the 28th best offense, but as I’ve written before, those number keep improving every game they play. UVA is the 3rd best offense. I do give the offensive edge to Virginia, as they have shown they can play different styles – up tempo and scoring against Purdue and grind it out against Auburn. Yet, Tech probably has the best player on the floor in Jarrett Culver. The Tariq Owens injury for Tech could hurt them at both ends. His ability to protect the rim and also get rebounds could be impacted.
So, who is going to win? Tech is the best tournament team, but UVA has been riding a storied run with 2 straight wins that came out of the mouth of the lion. I think Virginia is the pick here. I would not be surprised if Texas Tech wins it because they are playing at such a good level. However, I like that Virginia does not rely on one guy to score, they can shoot well, and if they can avoid a complete drought like they had against Auburn, they should cut down the nets.
Prediction: UVA wins, covers the -1.5 and the game goes Over the 117.5.
Enjoy the big game!
Wegs