Alright, the field has gone from 68 to 4 in no time. Our teams are not the usual suspects, but they have earned it by stellar play. This Final Four should be extremely competitive with no dominant team. Let’s dig into these teams and the match ups.
Game 1
#5 Auburn vs. #1 Virginia (-5.5, Total 131), 6:09 PM Eastern/5:09 PM Central on CBS – So, this match up is a classic conflict in styles of play. Auburn likes to play fast, maximizing possessions and taking way more 3 point shots than 2 point shots. The Tigers are 6th in Offense according to KenPom. They press some, but the whole idea is to speed up the game with turnovers in transition, but are not a top Defense (39th in KenPom). Coach Bruce Pearl has a team that completely believes they can win this title, and they are on a 12 game winning streak. Virginia is a pack line defensive team that is the 5th ranked Defense in KenPom. Their slow and deliberate offense is actually ranked 2nd in KenPom when it comes to efficiency. However, the Cavaliers aka the Wahoos will not be mistaken for Auburn when it comes to shot selection and pace.
Auburn was able to advance past Kentucky without their best all around player – Chuma Okeke. They relied heavily on their super guards in Bryce Brown and Jared Harper. The bigs for Auburn without Okeke could struggle in this game, but I do think that purely based on ball handling and scoring, Auburn has an advantage. However, UVA does not have slouches at guard. Freshman Kihei Clark is a very good defender and a smart player who clearly can make key plays like the game tying pass to get to OT against Purdue. Kyle Guy seemed to find his stroke after he turned his ankle scoring 19 points in 2nd half and OT after a struggle in the early rounds. Ty Jerome is really their 3 man, not a guard, but he does ball handle quite a bit. To me, UVA has better forwards/big men. De’Andre Hunter is an NBA caliber player, and the emergence of Mamadi Diakite has made Virginia a decent sized favorite in the game and for the title (+155).
This game will come down to who can control the pace. If Auburn can hit those deep threes on UVA and get UVA to have to keep up with them, then they have a real shot. Personally, I think Virginia will lock down both Harper and Brown neutralizing Auburn’s ability to score.
Prediction: Virginia wins the game (ML -242), but not sure about the Cover here. I do think the game will go over the 131.
Game 2
#3 Texas Tech vs. #2 Michigan State (-2.5, Total 132.5), 8:49 PM Eastern/7:49 PM Central on CBS – Now, unlike Game 1, these 2 teams play much closer in style. I think this game is a battle of will, not style. Texas Tech is the best Defense in KenPom and have been almost all year. You are not going to be able to score at will on this team, just ask Gonzaga who was the #1 Offense. Now, offensively, Tech has improved so much since January 1st. The key has been the backcourt of Davide Moretti and Matt Mooney – their contributions to go along with super soph, Jarrett Culver, have led to the 28th rated Offense in KenPom. They were closer to 100 at the start of the year. Coach Chris Beard is one of the rising stars in the field, and he will be highly coveted for other openings.
Michigan State is the team that had Final Four hopes at the start of the year, but injuries to Josh Langford for the season and Nick Ward late in the year, although he has returned, seemed to derail their hopes. Coach Tom Izzo turned into overdrive, and the team has responded. Sparty has the 9th best defense in KenPom and the 5th best offense. The guy to watch is arguably the best point guard in the country, Cassius Winston, who is the Big Ten Player of the Year. The junior commands the troops like no other, and he is clutch making the right play or hitting the big shot every single game. Michigan State won the Big Ten Tournament, and has beaten top teams on their way to Minneapolis – talented LSU and the top overall seed, Duke. Izzo, like Beard, get the absolute most out of his team, and obviously the only remaining coach with Final Four experience.
Prediction: This will be a competitive slug fest between 2 great teams. I think Cassius Winston and Sparty are the pick here. I do think they cover the 2.5, but I would stay away from the Total bet. If I had to choose, then it would be under.
Alright, let the games begin again on Saturday. Who you got?
Wegs