Given the lack of upsets in the tournament in the 2nd Round, we have a loaded Sweet Sixteen this year. Some would argue that the tournament is less compelling without a Cinderella. However, I would make the case that having the best teams in the country actually face off on the court is much better television than seeing the underdog get routed at this stage. Here is my take on the match ups and potential Final Four representatives.
East Region
#3 LSU vs. #2 Michigan State (-6, 149) Friday, 3/29 at 7:09 PM Eastern/6:09 Central on CBS – LSU was able to advance to the Sweet 16 without their coach. They had to hold off late runs in both of them from clearly inferior teams. In this one, Sparty will be ready for them. The Spartans have the dudes to match up against the huge LSU frontline. Plus, the match up at point guard is the best of the Sweet Sixteen – MSU’s Cassius Winston was the Big Ten Player of the Year, while Tremont Waters for LSU is incredible.
Ken Pom has LSU is 18th overall with the 48th rated Defense (the worst left in the tournament) and 13th on Offense. Michigan State is 3rd overall with the 8th best defense and 4th best offense. I think the LSU defense is the issue here. It will be an intriguing match up, but the coaching differential with Izzo over the LSU interim coach will show in both prep and in game.
Prediction: I like Sparty a lot in this one.
#4 VA Tech vs. #1 Duke (-7, 144) Friday, 3/29 at 9:39 PM Eastern/8:39 PM Central on CBS – Duke avoided a huge upset to UCF on Sunday. Most people think they should have lost with the foul calls or lack thereof late. To me, it’s all about survival. Duke survived, and maybe Coach K will have both motivation of his young team and adjusted strategy going forward. The Hokies beat Duke in late February when Zion Williamson was injured, but most of the nation does not know that VA Tech was missing their senior guard, Justin Robinson who can help them get over the top.
Ken Pom shows Duke at 4th overall – 6th on Defense and 7th on Offense, while VA Tech is 11th at 19th on Defense and 12th on Offense. On paper, Duke is the clear favorite here, but I do think that Duke is susceptible to strong front court players. The Hokies’s Kerry Blackshear, Jr. at 6’10” and 250 lbs has the length to really both the Duke scorers, plus get Zion and Duke in foul trouble. I think if Blackshear has a good game, then it will go to the wire. Duke has to find a way to get someone outside of the Big 3 – Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish contribute offensively. I understand that Tacko Fall on the last foul was actually guarding Trey Jones on the play. So, the blueprint to lay off the other 2 Duke players to essentially double the other 3 at all times will be implemented the rest of the tournament.
Prediction: Duke will win the game, but it will be tighter than expected.
Elite 8: If Michigan State vs. Duke happens, then this will be an incredible game. I hope it does both for the coaches and the talent. Duke and Michigan State are right next to each other in Ken Pom. Sign me up.
West Region
#4 Florida State vs. #1 Gonzaga (-7.5, 147) Thursday, 3/28 at 7:09 PM Eastern/6:09 PM Central on CBS – This is a rematch from last year in the same round. In the match up last year, the Zags struggled against the Noles’ length and depth. What is different this year? The Zags have a bigger front line than last year with Rui Hachimura, Killian Tillie (who missed that game last year) and Brandon Clarke, plus they go 9 deep. The Noles are incredible upfront, and their leading scorer, Mfiondu Kabengele actually comes off the bench – Coach Leonard Hamilton has 11 guys play.
Ken Pom shows Florida State as 14th overall, 10th on Defense and 28th on Offense. The Zags are 2nd overall – 17th on Defense and 1st on Offense.
Prediction: I think the Zags will get their revenge here, but I think that is a big number to cover. The Noles will keep it close. Should be a fun game.
#3 Texas Tech vs. #2 Michigan (-2, 126) Thursday, 3/28 at 9:39 PM Eastern/8:39 PM Central on CBS – This is a classic defensive battle. Both teams are incredible in limiting their opponents in both shot attempts and contesting 3 point shots. So, of all the games being played in the Sweet Sixteen, this should be the lowest scoring. Tech has a great player at both ends in Sophomore guard, Jarrett Culver, but they also have some grad transfers that have been logging big minutes in David Moretti and Matt Mooney. For Michigan, offense has been an issue, however the return of forward, Charles Matthews, seems to have given them a boost to go along with Iggie Brazdekis and sharp shooter, Jordan Poole.
Ken Pom has these guys really close. Tech is 7th overall with the best Defense and 33rd in Offense. Michigan is 5th overall with the 2nd best Defense and 19th on Offense. Although Michigan is better on paper offensively, Texas Tech has risen up considerably in the past 2 months.
Prediction: I like Texas Tech in this one. It should be a great game and of the best match ups of the tournament.
Elite 8: I think of all the regions, this one is the most unpredictable. All 4 teams would be Final Four worthy. I still like the Zags to get out of the region, but they will have to earn it beating the Noles and then Michigan or Tech.
South Region
#3 Purdue vs. #2 Tennessee (-1, 146.5) Thursday, 3/28 at 7:29 PM Eastern/6:29 PM Central on TBS – This is probably the closest match up we have in the Sweet Sixteen. Both teams are prolific offenses and play enough defense to make things interesting. The Boilermakers do rely heavily on super guard, Carsen Edwards who averages 23.6 PPG. Tennessee has a more balanced attack, but they do have the SEC Player of the Year in Grant Williams.
Ken Pom has these teams as close as you can get. Purdue is 9th overall with the 26th best Defense and 5th on Offense. Tennessee is 33rd on Defense and 3rd on Offense. Really, these teams as the spread indicates are dead even. I think it will come down to if other Boilers can score in this one. The Vols have more than one guy, and Purdue doesn’t.
Prediction: Vols will win this one. I hope it is a fun offensive show.
#12 Oregon vs. #1 Virginia (-8, 118.5) Thursday, 3/28 at 9:59 PM Eastern/8:59 PM Central on TBS – Another defensive battle here. The Ducks are the lone double digit seed remaining in the Dance. Their run has been incredible winning 10 straight, and I have to say that if you haven’t seen forward, Kenny Wooten play, you gotta see this dude block shots and dunk. Virginia has been great all year, and they may never live down the loss to UMBC last year until they win a title. This will be a real challenge for them against a very athletic Oregon squad.
Ken Pom has Oregon at the lowest overall at 29, but their Defense is 15th, where they struggle is on Offense at 74th. UVA is the best team in Ken Pom with the 3rd best Defense and 2nd best Offense. If UVA is ready to win the title, then they need to take out Oregon early. Don’t let them hang around and make plays down the stretch. Deandre Hunter, the UVA forward, should be the difference here. He didn’t play last year against UMBC, and they will need his athleticism against this Ducks defense.
Prediction: UVA wins this one, and it won’t be a blowout, but a comfortable win.
Elite 8: A contrast in styles regardless of the results here. Offense vs. Defense, and I like the Defensive side. I like UVA to get to Minneapolis against Tennessee.
Midwest Region
#5 Auburn vs. #1 North Carolina (-4.5, 162) Friday, 3/29 at 7:29 PM Eastern/6:29 PM Central on TBS – This will be a track meet. The highest total by far on the board in the Sweet Sixteen. Both teams can fill it up, but they do it very differently. The Tigers shoot the long ball as good as any of the remaining teams, while the Heels pound the ball inside and via layups on the break. Auburn’s Bryce Brown is the guy to watch. He has been red hot in the SEC and NCAA tourneys. UNC’s Cam Johnson puts in 16.9 PPG, but his overall playmaking ability may be the difference here.
Ken Pom has Auburn at 13th overall with the 44th rated Defense, but 7th ranked Offense. North Carolina is at 11th on Defense and 8th on Offense. I think this will be fun to watch, but I would be surprised if Auburn can keep UNC off the glass and keep up with them for 40 minutes.
Prediction: Maybe Coach Bruce Pearl will surprise me, but I see UNC advancing.
#3 Houston vs. #2 Kentucky (-2.5, 134.5) Friday, 3/29 at 9:59 PM Eastern/8:59 PM Central on TBS – The Houston Cougars are the non-huge conference rep left in the Dance. They have done it on the basis of their defense. This is Houston’s first visit to the Sweet Sixteen since Phi Slamma Jamma went in 1984. They may get a big break here, as Kentucky’s top scorer, PJ Washington is still on the shelf. It is unclear if he will suit up at all, let alone be effective on the court. If Washington can’t play, then Houston is going to be a tough out. Kentucky needs to continue to play great defense to advance.
Ken Pom has Houston at 12th overall with the 12th rated Defense and 21st rated Offense. Kentucky is 8th overall with the 9th best Defense and 11th on Offense. The truth is without Washington, I think Kentucky has an offense closer to Oregon’s. It is a shame, as Coach Calipari has really gotten this team to buy in.
Prediction: If Washington plays, Kentucky will roll, but if not, Houston will knock them out.
Elite 8: I think UNC will roll into Minneapolis if Kentucky does not get Washington back. Auburn may surprise me, but I can’t see Houston beating UNC.
Those are my takes. Hopefully, your bracket is still in contention. Enjoy the weekend of games.
Wegs