We are finally here!! The field is set. Today, I’ll dig deep into the Bracket, so you can make your picks.
Tournament Basics
If you have never done a bracket, then do it! This is the best 3 weeks in the history of sports. 68 (really 64 teams) down to a Champion inside of 3 weeks. 32 games in the first 2 days and another 16 over the weekend, so 48 games in 4 days. That is insane. The bracket allows you to make your picks and follow the action. Sure, we all want to make money. However, the joy of this thing is the kid who picks teams based on mascots or jersey colors has about an equal chance as a guy like me who follows all the metrics all year. These are college kids who play one game – win or go home. That makes for some crazy situations and always drama in late game situations.
Format: For the newbies, there are 4 Regions in the Bracket. East, West, South and Midwest. 16 teams in each grouping – Seeded 1 through 16 – the better team is a “higher seed” or lower number. First Round is Thursday/Friday, Second Round is Saturday/Sunday. The result is what we call the Sweet Sixteen. Play resumes on the following Thursday/Friday, and typically the Cinderellas fall in this round, but who knows. The winners in the Sweet Sixteen make the Elite Eight on Saturday/Sunday with the winners in those games advancing to the Final Four. The Elite Eight winners “cut down the nets” for the Region and any coach advancing to the Final Four usually have great job security. Final Four is in Minneapolis, MN this year on Saturday, April 6th – 2 games that night with the winners playing on Monday, April 8th to determine the Championship.
In the past few years a 6 seed or higher has made the Final Four virtually every year. Last year, we had Loyola-Chicago, an 11 seed in the Final Four. So, Cinderella teams (very low seeded teams) capture our imagination this time of year.
Blue Bloods rule in the end. Unfortunately, to win the Tournament, one of the big boys come out on top. Now, that doesn’t have to mean a #1 seed, but a team from a major conference will likely win. So, a general rule to make your picks is pick some upsets early and in the 2nd round, but pick a top dog to win it. Long shots to win rarely come in.
Regional Analysis
East Region
Duke is the 1 Seed and overall best seed in the entire tournament. With Zion Williamson back in the lineup, Duke rolled through the ACC Tournament and were a different team with him back. In their path, there are a few stumbling blocks. 2 Seed – Michigan State kinda got screwed in being in Duke’s region, but the Big Ten Champ has one of the best tournament coaches ever in Tom Izzo (my person favorite), but can they continue to overcome the injuries? The 3 Seed is the now maligned LSU Tigers who with their coach suspended seem like a potential early out. The 4 Seed is Virginia Tech who could make some noise with the return of Justin Robinson who has been out for weeks with an injury. Still, I think Duke is the team to beat here. Their poor 3 point shooting may doom them at some point, but I can’t see it.
Potential Upsets:
- 14 Yale vs. 3 LSU – Yale is the Ivy League Champ and they can flat out score the ball. Their top scorer will be drafted in the NBA – Miye Oni at 6’6″ and 200 lbs, the has been able to dominate the Ivy League, but the frontline of LSU is no joke – Naz Reid is a lottery pick in the NBA and point guard Tremont Waters is legit. It’s going to be fun to see this one.
- 11 Belmont vs. 6 Maryland – Belmont received one of the last at large bids which go to the teams that didn’t win their conference tournament. After advancing in last night’s First Four game, the monkey is off their back (previously lost last 7 NCAA tournament games). Belmont can shoot the ball and score. Maryland has a huge front line with Bruno Fernando, but if they show up like they did in the Big Ten Tournament uninspired, Belmont can nip them here.
- 12 Liberty vs. 5 Mississippi State – Traditionally, the 5/12 match up yields a lot of upsets, and this could be one. Liberty out of the Atlantic Sun can play fast averaging 74 PPG. However, Mississippi State can score the ball, too at 77.3 PPG. This one should be a shoot out.
Prediction: Duke wins the Region
West Region
Gonzaga is the 1 Seed and if they hadn’t lost in their West Coast Conference Tournament final would have been the overall 1 seed and sport the best offense in the nation. The West is a much rougher road for the Zags. 2 Seed is the always tournament tough Michigan Wolverines and Coach Jon Beilein is one of the best coaches in the game. Their 2nd ranked defense is their hallmark. Texas Tech is the 3 Seed and are the best defensive team in the country with a vastly improved offense throughout the season. That match up with Michigan who would be incredible. The 4 Seed is Florida State who are incredible athletically and knocked off the Zags last year. So, if the Zags get to Minneapolis, they will have earned it. Another team to watch here is the 6 Seed Buffalo Bulls who are the MAC Champ and been in the AP Top 20 all year. They are just good.
Potential Upsets
- 10 Florida vs. 7 Nevada – The Wolfpack were a tournament darling last year winning in come from behind fashion, but the weight of expectation has slowed this team over the season. Plus, star forward Jordan Caroline is injured with an unclear status. Florida is a great defensive team – 14th ranked, and coming out of the tough SEC. Florida has won their first game 2 years running, so this is a ripe upset.
- 12 Murray State vs. 5 Marquette – The Committee is teasing us by pitting the 2 top scorers in the Tournament against each other – Murray’s JA Morant is a Top 5 draft pick is tops in scoring and assists, while Marquette’s Markus Howard can fill it up. Howard does have a wrist injury that could slow him. The game should be a high scoring, fun affair.
- 8 Syracuse vs. 1 Zags – If Syracuse can advance in Round 1, look for them to push the Zags with that incredible match up zone. Cuse’s Tyus Battle is back from injury and can score, while the Zags have an incredible starting 5 led by Rui Hachimura, the 6’8″ power forward.
Prediction: I’m going to stick with Zags here, but would not be surprised if this bracket blows up.
South Region
Virginia is the 1 Seed and is only one year removed from the biggest upset in NCAA history in their loss to UMBC – the first 16 over a 1 ever. UVA returns most of their team and has De’Andre Hunter back this year who missed that game due to injury. Most people won’t take them seriously, but they are incredible – 2nd rated offense and 5th rated defense. In their way to Minneapolis, the 2 Seed is Tennessee who is a veteran laden team that spent several weeks at AP #1. Forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield are tough as is their back court. 3 Seed Purdue righted the ship after a terrible non-conference record tying Michigan State for the regular season crown. However, the one and one effort in the Big Ten Tournament leaves Boilermaker fans nervous. Carsen Edwards is the engine for that squad. The 4 Seed is Kansas State, but with the injury to Power Forward, Dean Wade leaves them vulnerable. The dark horse here is 12 Seed Oregon who ran through the PAC 12 Tournament to steal a bid. They are red hot.
Potential Upsets
- 12 Oregon vs. 5 Wisconsin – Another 5/12 match up here – Wisconsin is a solid squad with the 3rd best defense in the nation and super forward, Ethan Happ. However, Oregon has found their stride winning 8 straight games. In betting terms, this is almost a pick ’em and a very trendy upset pick.
- 11 St. Mary’s vs. 6 Villanova – The Champs in Villanova won the Big East regular season and tournament, but they seem vulnerable. St. Mary’s just took out the Zags in the West Coast Conference Title Game. So, this one should be interesting. I like St. Mary’s here.
- 13 UC Irvine vs. 4 Kansas State – K State made the Elite 8 last year, but that was with Dean Wade. He is doubtful and the Wildcats struggle to score without him. The Anteaters of UC Irvine have talent, including Collin Welp, 6’9″. Their size and ability will given the K State’s 4th ranked defense all they can handle in this one.
Prediction: More Chalk here – Virginia will advance to the Final Four.
Midwest Region
North Carolina (UNC) is the 1 Seed here. The Heels had Duke on the ropes for the 3rd time, but they are still a great team. Their path is tough, though. 2 Seed is the Kentucky Wildcats who are the pre-season AP #1 team. Yet, after a beat down at the hands of Duke early in the season, Coach Calipari got this team to play tough defense (11th ranked) and solid offense (13th). That would be a great Elite Eight game with 2 blue bloods. 3 Seed Houston has had an incredible season for Coach Kelvin Sampson. 4 Seed Kansas is not the same squad from past years losing their first regular season title in 15 years due to massive injuries, defections and suspensions. They could be ripe for an upset.
Potential Upsets
- 12 New Mexico State vs. 5 Auburn – Auburn shot their way to the SEC Tournament Title, and they love to play fast. So, do the Aggies of New Mexico State. The Aggies play 14 guys in their games and play fast at 78.1 PPG. This one should be a fun watch at least, and I like the Aggies.
- 13 Northeastern vs. 4 Kansas – As said, Kansas is not the same team. The Northeastern squad can shoot the rock, and maybe can catch this Kansas squad feeling sorry for themselves. Definite possibility.
- 14 Georgia State vs. 3 Houston – Now, this one was not on my radar, but 2 respected gambling guys have picked the Panthers straight up to beat Houston. Georgia State is returning to the Dance back to back, so they have experience. Plus, Houston did look beatable by Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Title Game (they lost). I’m not taking it, but smarter guys have picked this one.
- 10 Seton Hall vs. 7 Wofford – I’m a Wofford fan, no doubt. I love the Terriers and like that they are favored, but I don’t like this draw. The Pirates of Seton Hall almost completed a crazy run in the Big East Tournament and ran out of gas against Villanova. The Hall has a top scorer in Myles Powell. So, Wofford who can shoot better than any team in the Dance should make for a great game to watch here.
Prediction: I like Kentucky out of this region.
Alright, take it or leave it here, but those are my takes. Like I said, a coin flip or jersey color may lead to better picks.
Good luck.
Wegs