So, this week will be a little different than others in that like last week, I’m going to review all the Conference Tournaments big and small. However, instead of KenPom review, I will dig into the Bubble and how should vs. will likely get in. Plus just a link to Bracketology since it is changing daily now.
Bracketology
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Champ Week – Power Conferences
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) – Starts Tuesday, 3/12 – Title Game Saturday, 3/16
The best conference traditionally in college basketball is the ACC. It is almost a lock to get at least 2 #1 seeds out of this league this year in Virginia (UVA) and North Carolina (UNC) in the Big Dance. Duke still has an outside chance to get one, but without Zion this team has struggled mightily. It is not a lock for him to even play, and if he does, will he be going 100% for 3 straight days? I don’t think so. As it lays out, UVA is the 1 Seed in the tournament and has only lost 3 games in the ACC in 2 years. I think they will get to the title game. UNC is the 2 with Duke as the 3 setting up for a 3rd tilt for these teams. However, it is not a given Duke gets there. I like Florida State, the 4 seed, to be dangerous here. I don’t think VA Tech, Syracuse or Louisville pose a major threat to the Top 3.
Bubble Teams to Watch: Clemson (9 seed) is in the tournament according to both Palm and Lunardi, but 19-12 they are firmly on the Bubble. They play another complete Bubble Team in North Carolina State (8 Seed). State is 21-10, but they are stumbling down the stretch. Palm does not have them in the Dance. It could be an elimination game. Besides that, the Top 7 Seeds are all firmly in the field.
Big Ten – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game Sunday, 3/17
The Big Ten is a deep conference without a 1 Seed this year. Michigan State finished strong despite 2 key injuries to lock up the 1 seed in the Big Ten Tourney with Purdue (2 seed), Michigan (3 seed) and Wisconsin (4 seed) right behind. There are some dark horses here, though. Penn State (10 seed) has been playing great basketball, and their only shot to make the Dance is winning the tournament. They are dangerous, plus Indiana (9 seed) need to keep winning to have a chance. I like both of these teams to knock off one or even 2 higher seeded opponents. I still think either Michigan State or Purdue come out on top here, but the Semis may not the chalk picks (top 4 seeds).
Bubble Teams to Watch: Indiana (9 seed) faces off against Ohio State (8 Seed) on Thursday morning. The loser may be bounced from the field. Indiana’s resume has strong wins and a surge lately, but 14 losses and 12 in conference play does not bode well. The Buckeyes are playing like garbage lately and have 13 losses also with 12 losses in the Big Ten. I think Indiana sends them packing for the NIT. Both Palm and Lunardi have Ohio State in and Indiana out, but that could change with a Hoosier win. I think the other 7 highest seeds are in the Field.
Big 12 – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
Kansas has dominated this conference for over a decade, but dropping the conference title this year for the first time in 14 years. Kansas State is the 1 seed here and Texas Tech the 2 and as tough as this league is, I don’t see anyone besides these two teams playing on Saturday. Tech has a shot at getting up to the 2 line, but at worst a 3 seed in the Big Dance. Their offensive efficiency has been the difference down the stretch, as they are already the nation’s best defense. I like them to win this.
Bubble Teams to Watch: Texas (6 seed) is a total riddle. Metrically, Texas is great in the Top 30 in most ratings, but 15 losses and an 8-10 conference record make them out for Palm and on the edge for Lunardi. If they lose their first game, then they won’t make the Big Dance. TCU (8 Seed) is playing awful basketball, but somehow Palm and Lunardi have them in. At 7-11 in conference, I can’t see them making the field unless they win 2 games starting with OK State (9 Seed) then Kansas State (1 Seed). Good luck. Oklahoma (7 Seed) is also somehow firmly in according to both brackets. Yet, the Sooners are also 7-11 in conference. If they lose to West Virginia (10 Seed), then they should miss the tournament.
Big East – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
A wide open field here. Villanova is the 1 Seed, but they are not last year’s NCAA Title team. Marquette (2 seed) was up there, but with 4 straight losses, they are reeling. 2 dangerous teams here are Seton Hall (3 seed) who has gotten hot at the right time playing their way off the Bubble. Xavier (4 Seed) is not a tournament team yet, but they have gotten hot winning 6 of 7 and will face off against a Bubble Team in their first game – Creighton (5 Seed) who was dead but have won 5 straight. That’s a great match up.
Bubble Teams to Watch: Creighton (5 Seed) as mentioned is firmly on the Last In or First Out line, so they need to beat Xavier in that first match up, otherwise, they will be out. St. Johns (7 Seed) has completely fallen apart. I do not agree with Palm and Lunardi who have them in the field – their metrics and after beating Villanova on 2/17 have lost 4 of 5. If they lose to DePaul (10 Seed), then hello NIT.
Southeastern Conference (SEC) – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Sunday, 3/17
This tournament is gonna be lit. Louisiana State University or LSU is the 1 Seed, but their coach is suspended with the FBI wire tap information out. Still, that is a talented team with a great point guard in Waters who could take this. Kentucky (2 Seed) is in line for a 1 Seed in the Big Dance if they win this, but the Reid Travis injury has hurt them. Tennessee (3 Seed) has been humbled of late, but still crushed Kentucky in their last match up. The surprise South Carolina Gamecocks are the 4 seed with no shot at the Dance unless the win this thing. Who knows? Auburn, the 5 Seed, has the ability to shoot their way to a victory against anyone. I think the Semis and Finals here will be must watch tv.
Bubble Teams to Watch: Florida (8 Seed) has work to do. They are on the edge of the Bubble with 14 losses, despite very good metrics. They need to beat Arkansas (9 Seed) to stay there and a 2nd win over LSU would cement them in. Alabama (10 Seed) has been bumped from the latest projections, but if they can beat Ole Miss (7 Seed) and somehow beat Kentucky (2 Seed), that would change.
Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC 12) – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
The PAC 12 was woeful this year. Only 2 teams have legitimate shots at the Big Dance barring a title run. Washington is the 1 seed and started out red hot in conference play, but they have cooled. An early loss to the 8/9 Winner could put them on the Bubble. Arizona State (2 Seed) is the only other team to consider, but again, if they drop the game to the 7/10 winner then look out. I don’t see any dark horses here. Oregon State (4 seed) has had a solid season in the conference, but I don’t think they will take out Washington. No real Bubble Teams besides what is mentioned.
American Athletic Conference (AAC) – Starts Thursday, 3/14 – Title Game – Sunday, 3/17
The AAC has some really solid teams this year and will likely send 4 teams in. Houston is the 1 seed and currently looking at a 3 seed in the Big Dance. They are a really tough defensive team and the clear favorite to win the tourney. However, UCF (Central Florida, the 4 seed) has beaten Houston and their big man, Tacko Fall – 7’6″ – is a difference maker. Temple is also a Big Dance team at the 3 seed, and they should give Cincinnati (2 seed) all they want in the Semis. No real dark horses here for me. Memphis (5 seed) has a decent record, but unless they run the table has no shot at a bid. No real bubble teams here, either.
Smaller Conferences
Mountain West – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
There are 2 Big Dance teams here in Nevada (1 seed) and Utah State (2 seed). Personally, I’d love to see that final, as those 2 teams got into it after the Aggies upset the Wolfpack just last week. Bad blood and a bit of a rivalry could be fun to watch.
Atlantic 10 (A10) – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Sunday, 3/17
Only one team has a bid locked up in 1 seed Virginia Commonwealth (VCU). The Rams boast a Top 10 defense. No other teams are even on the Bubble at this point, so maybe Davidson (2 Seed) or Dayton (3 Seed) can give them a run.
Mid-American Conference (MAC) – Starts Monday, 3/11 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
The MAC has been controlled by the Buffalo Bulls (1 seed) who are a lock to make the field even if they lose their tournament. Their biggest competition is likely Bowling Green (3 seed) who has beaten them, but Toledo (2 seed) has had a great season at 25-6. I don’t think it will happen, so Bulls should win it and Dance on.
Western Athletic Conference (WAC) – Starts Thursday, 3/14 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
The WAC is a one bid league, despite the continued success of New Mexico State (1 seed) who is 27-4 and 15-1 in the league. If someone knocks them off, then it would be a shame to not have them in the field for the Big Dance. Their main competition will come from Grand Canyon University (3 seed) coached by Dan Majerle.
Conference USA (CUSA) – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
CUSA is just a one bid league now. Old Dominion is the class of the league with a 23-8 record and the 1 seed. Still, they will have to win it or miss the Dance.
Big West – Starts Thursday, 3/14 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
Another one bid league with the mighty Anteaters of UC Irvine as the 1 seed. There are some competitive teams here with UC Santa Barbara (2 seed) and Cal State Fullerton (3 seed) ready to take out Irvine.
Ivy League – Starts Saturday, 3/16 – Title Game – Sunday, 3/17
The Ivy League is always good for an upset or near upset in the Big Dance. Unlike other conferences, only the Top 4 play for the bid. There are 2 teams ahead of the pack here in Harvard and Yale. The seeding is not complete, but I expect these 2 teams to square off to earn the bid on Sunday.
Sun Belt – Starts Wednesday, 3/12 – Title Game – Sunday, 3/17
The Sun Belt is a sneaky good league with representatives who have pulled off big upsets in the past – Georgia State (1 seed) has done it a few years back themselves, but will need to beat some quality opponents in University of Texas-Arlington (2 seed), Georgia Southern (3 seed) and Texas State (4 seed) all capable of knocking them off. This leagues gives the Top 2 seeds a rare triple bye to the Semis.
Big Sky – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
The Montana Grizzlies are the 1 seed here in another one bid league. They will have to fend off some good teams in Weber State (4 seed) and the other side of the bracket Northern Colorado (2 seed) or Eastern Washington (2 seed) to get to the Big Dance.
Southland – Starts Wednesday, 3/13 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
Another conference that has produced teams who can upset the big boys from time to time. Sam Houston State is the 1 seed here with a 16-2 conference record getting the double bye to the Semis. Abilene Christian is the 2 seed and biggest competition for the bid.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) – Starts Monday, 3/11 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
This one bid league is typically a First Four entry. This year the Norfolk State Spartans are the top team here at 14-2 in conference. Their biggest competitor will be North Carolina A&T (2 seed) although North Carolina Central (3 seed) has gone to the Big Dance in back to back years.
Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) – Starts Tuesday, 3/12 – Title Game – Saturday, 3/16
The SWAC has been dominated by Prairie View (1 seed) this year who went 17-1 in the conference. Texas Southern (2 seed) has danced in back to back years and will not go down lightly.
This is an incredible week to watch games and see the passion that these players put out on the court. Let the games continue!
Wegs