I usually do this post on Thursday, but with the huge game below, I needed to get it out today. We have some epic match ups in the Power 5 this week that are must see TV.

Have you seen Zion play yet?

ACC

#8 UNC at #1 Duke, Wednesday, 2/20 at 9 PM Eastern/8 PM Central on ESPN – the highest rated college game Part 1 takes place tonight. Duke’s frosh players – Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish are hosting the more veteran Heels in Cameron. I understand tickets are going for $2500 a piece. The Heels are 9 point underdogs here, and the Dukies should be high flying. What a game!

SEC

#5 Tennessee at #13 LSU, Saturday, 12 Noon Eastern/11 AM Eastern on ESPN – the Vols fall pretty far after their loss at Kentucky now take on the co-leader in the SEC, the Tigers of LSU. LSU has some dudes and a great guard in Tremont Waters. The Vols need F Grant Williams to bounce back and the Admiral to throw his weight around against that LSU frontline.

Big 12

#12 Kansas at #14 Texas Tech, Saturday, 2/23 at 8 PM Eastern/7 PM Central on ESPN – the Jayhawks took out the Red Raiders in Lawrence earlier this season, but KU has huge losses from injury, suspension and absences. The Red Raiders are right there for a shot at the Big 12 Title, and the Tech faithful should be rabid.

Big Ten

Michigan State at Michigan, Sunday, 2/24 at 3:45 PM Eastern/2:45 PM Eastern on CBS – Sparty is reeling from the loss of Nick Ward, but this is when Coach Izzo shines. Michigan has struggled offensively, but they are still 2nd in Defensive Efficiency. This should be a battle and the first of 2 in the next couple weeks to determine the Big Ten title.

Mid-Major Focus

American East

Vermont at UMBC, Thursday, 2/21 7 PM Eastern/6 PM Central on ESPNU – Now, everyone knows who the Retrievers of UMBC are after the big upset last year of UVA. However, the Catamounts are actually the class of the AMEast and have been for years. UMBC took out Vermont in the AMEast Finals in 2018, so this is a payback spot from last year and earlier this season for Vermont’s only conference loss. Should be a great game at RAC Arena.

Bracketology

Joe Lunardi (JL) of ESPN –

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Jerry Palm (JP) of CBS –

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Only 2 major differences this week: Florida – In (JL)/Out (JP) and Butler – Out (JL)/In (JP)

Seed Differences: Not too big of differences, but there are a few – NC State 10 (JL)/12 (JP), Syracuse 8 (JL)/10 (JP), TCU 10 (JL)/8 (JP), Auburn 8 (JL)/10 (JP), St. Johns 9 (JL)/7 (JP), Iowa 6 (JL)/4 (JP), Minnesota 11 (JL)/9 (JP) and South Dakota State 14 (JL)/16 (JP).

KenPom Review

Top 5:

  1. Duke – Finally, AP matches KP
  2. UVA – #3 in AP, but still right at the top
  3. Zags – #2 in AP and just a step behind UVA
  4. Michigan State – #10 in AP and that may reflect loss of Nick Ward
  5. Kentucky – #4 in AP, but with the big win over Vols cements spot in Top 5 of both

Over-Rated Teams: Marquette is 11 in AP, but 26th in KP and Kansas State is 23rd in AP, but 32nd in KP.

Under-Rated Teams: Auburn is 28th in AP, but 16 in KP and Mississippi State 30th in AP, but 23rd in KP.

Teams to Watch

At this point of the season, I like to start determining who I like for the Final Four, Elite 8 and Sweet Sixteen. Now, we don’t know the bracket yet, but we can look for teams we like. I recommend watching these teams really closely over the next 3 weeks, as Selection Sunday is soon – March 17th.

Here are my top 13 Squads in order:

  1. Duke – Odds on favorite at this point
  2. Zags – Love this team and they will be great
  3. UVA – If only they could beat Duke
  4. Kentucky – Cats are playing the right brand of basketball to get to the Final 4
  5. Nevada – Everyone is sleeping on this team. 3 NBA caliber players is all you need.
  6. Michigan – Belein is a master and this team can defend, but can they score?
  7. Sparty – Injuries have crushed Sparty, but I trust Izzo to advance in March.
  8. Tennessee – The Vols are really good and experienced, but not a Final 4 squad to me.
  9. Texas Tech – Tech is really good, but that offense will cost them on the 2nd weekend.
  10. Purdue – Boilers are good enough to score, but it’s their defense that needs to get them to Sweet Sixteen.
  11. Houston – Cougars are primed for a deep run, but I worry about competition level to get past Sweet 16.
  12. Louisville – Chris Mack is a great coach and will right the ship to get to 2nd weekend.
  13. Wofford – This is my mid-major team in 2019. Terriers are legit, but if they get up to 8 or 9 line, then this will be tough – need to beat a 1 seed.

1st Round Darlings – outside of Wofford, who should you know

  • Buffalo – Actually a better rating than Wofford, but I don’t trust them to get to Sweet 16 yet. Bulls are a quality team and will be a higher seed.
  • New Mexico State – Aggies are always in the mix for an upset. Nearly beat a full strength KU squad at Allen Fieldhouse in December. I like them to challenge someone.
  • Lipscomb – The Bison are really good. Now, Liberty may knock them out in the A-Sun, but this team is good enough to take down a giant.

Get to watching to get ready!

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.