As I may have written last week, the match ups on Sunday were as close on paper as they have ever been. Thankfully, both games delivered with the first time ever when both games went to OT to determine the Conference Champions.
Championship Sunday – Down to the Wire Twice
NFC Championship Game – Rams Knock Out Saints, 26-23 OT
The Saints had not lost at home with Coach Sean Payton coaching and Drew Brees at QB (6-0). Well, the Saints came out early and got 2 quick FGs, one off a tipped pass off Rams’ Todd Gurley’s hands. The Rams trailed 13-0 after the 1st Quarter, and the noise of the Super Dome was clearly impeding the offense’s ability to get in formation. The Rams were able to pull within 3 at the half after a complete dime throw by 24 year old, Jared Goff, to Brandin Cooks (7 catches for 107 yards) to set up a Gurley TD.
In the 2nd half, after a quick 3 and out for the Rams, the Saints methodically drove down the field on their first drive to score a TD from Drew Brees (249 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) to the wild card, Taysom Hill. The Saints had just 23 minutes to their first Super Bowl since 2009/10. The Rams were able to answer that TD to pull back to 3 with 3 minutes left in the 3rd. In the fourth, Rams tied the game with a FG with 5:03 to play. Then, the critical drive where Drew Brees hit WR Ted Ginn deep to get in the Red Zone at the 2 minute warning. The Saints chose to throw on 1st down, which was not advisable given the Rams’ TO situation. Then, on 3rd and 10 from the Rams’ 13 yard line, Brees threw down the right sideline to Tommy Lee Lewis, and Rams’ CB Nickell Robey-Coleman blasted him before the ball got there in the helmet. What appeared to be an obvious Defensive Pass Interference or even a Targeting Penalty was not called, the Super Dome and the viewers at home were shocked. The Saints kicked the go ahead FG leaving 1:41 left for Goff to get in position. The blatant no call shows the issues with the inconsistencies of NFL officiating and now a call for replay of penalties. Goff hit 4 different receives to get Kicker, Greg Zuerlien in position for the game tying FG from 48, which was good.
In OT, the Saints may have been dazed, but they won the toss, took the ball, but DE Dante Fowler (another acquisition from Jacksonville) hit Brees forcing a flutter ball intercepted by the Rams’ John Johnson. Goff (297 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) hit TE Tyler Higbee 2x to get Zuerlein in position for a 57 yarder to win the game. Greg “the Leg” nailed the FG with yards to spare sending the Rams to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2001. Controversy aside, the game was incredible, and the Saints settled for too many FGs to beat the young and hungry Rams. Rams held the Saints running game to 48 yards in the game, and WR Michael Thomas to 36 yards on just 4 catches. Rams will need RB Todd Gurley to play more and better only getting 5 touches for 13 yards and a TD. Lots to discuss later.
AFC Championship Game – Brady Does It Again Over Chiefs, 37-31 OT
The Chiefs had never hosted an AFC title game in their history, while the Pats had made their 8th straight. Well, in the first half, it was clear who was better prepared for the moment. The Patriots took the ball, and promptly went 80 yards on 15 plays using 8:05 to score a TD and quiet the crowd. After a 3 and out, the Pats took the next drive down to the Chiefs’ 1 yard line before QB Tom Brady made a rare mistake for an INT to kill a big chance to hurt the Chiefs. It was clear the Patriots’ Coach Bill Belichick had a much better game plan than Chiefs’ Coach Andy Reid. The Pats ran the ball down the Chiefs throat on offense, and on defense, they pressured the soon to be MVP, Patrick Mahomes up the middle limiting the Chiefs to 0 points and 37 total yards. The Pats added a late TD on their final drive to lead the Chiefs 14-0 at the half.
In the second, Andy Reid finally made some adjustments. In the first drive of the half on 3rd and 2 from their own 31 yard line, Mahomes rolled right and hit WR Sammy Watkins in stride for a 54 yard bomb setting up their first TD. The crowd was ignited, and the game was back on. The Pats got a FG drive together near the end of the 3rd quarter to go back up by 10. The Chiefs were able to answer with a TD drive spurred by a swing pass to RB Damien Williams for 33 yards. The Chiefs scored at the start of the 4th to get the score to 17-14. Then, the game changed course. The Pats drove down deep into Chiefs’ territory, but on a 4th and inches, the Chiefs stuffed RB Rex Burkhead to make the biggest stop in their history. However, Mahomes was not able to hit WRs for the first down, and the ensuing punt brought big controversy as the short kick bounced and what appeared to bounce off of Pats’ WR Julian Edelman recovered and returned for a TD by the Chiefs. After further review, Edelman didn’t touch the ball giving NE possession, but 2 plays later, Brady’s pass bounced off Edelman’s hands for a Chiefs’ INT. Mahomes cashed in 2 plays later to Williams giving the Chiefs their first lead at 21-17.
The Pats did what they do. Methodically dinking and dunking the ball down the field into the Red Zone. This time on 4th and 1 from the Chiefs’ 10 yard line, the ball went to Sony Michel who scored his 2nd TD on the day (29 carries for 113 yards) – Pats led 24-21. The Chiefs had 3:32 to answer, which proved to be no problem, as Mahomes threw one up to Watkins drawing a Pass Interference penalty up the sideline, then a WR screen to Watkins (and a blatant no call on the Offensive PI) setting up another Willims’ TD (96 total yards and 3 TDs), Chiefs led 28-24. However, you can’t give TB12 2:03 and 3 TOs to win the game. Brady did it again with the help of an incredible catch by WR Chris Hogan confirmed by review. The next play, Brady’s pass bounced off Gronk’s hands for a game ending INT, but an off sides penalty on KC negated the Turnover. Then, a deep pass to Gronk (6 for 79 yards) and run by Burkhead put the Pats on top 31-28 with 39 clicks to go. Too much time, as Patty Mahomes hit RB Spencer Ware for 21 and then Demarcus Robinson for 27 setting up Chiefs’ Kicker Harrison Butker who tied the game at 31 with a 39 yarder to force OT.
In OT, the Patriots won the coin flip and took the ball. Well, Tommy only converted 3 – 3rd and 10s to get the Pats in the Red Zone – 2 to Julian Edelman (7 for 96 yards) and 1 to Gronk. Two carries to Burkhead (41 yards, 2 TDs) and the Patriots go to their 3rd straight Super Bowl and 9th time in Tom Brady’s career. He goes to play the Rams who he played in his first Super Bowl 17 years ago. Incredible. The Patriots dominated time of possession 43:59 to 20:53 and 524 yards (176 yards rushing) to 290. Still, Mahomes will be back, as he threw for 295 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INTs (almost all of it in the 2nd half). Brady throws for 348 with only 1 TD and 2 INTs, but with the game on the line, there is no one better, he is the Terminator.
Reviewing Predictions: 5-5 S/U, 4-5-1 ATS and 7-3 Totals. If I followed the Index 100%, then I would be 7-3 S/U and ATS. Trust the numbers.
Early Super Bowl Preview
RAMS VS PATRIOTS (-2, TOTAL 58) – Sunday, February 3rd – 6:30 PM Eastern/5:30 PM Central on CBS
Per the Index, these are the 2 best teams once the Bears were eliminated. The crazy part is they are dead even in the Index at 5.17. So, from my metrics, these teams are exactly even, which is reflected in the spread. Both teams have Top 5 offenses. The Patriots have been the better defense statistically, however the Rams have bigger names – Donald, Suh, Peters and Talib.
There will be 4 main storylines for this game:
- QB Comparison – Tom Brady is 41, Jared Goff is 24, which is the biggest age disparity in Super Bowl history. Brady will play in his 9th Super Bowl (5-3) and Goff playing in his first (2-1 in playoffs now). Brady is incredible and will continue to play at a high level, so it is really can Goff match him. I’ll dig into this next week more, but my gut says, no. Rams’ Coach Sean McVay will need to out-scheme Belichick to allow Goff to be clean in the pocket and make easier throws.
- Coaching Match Up – Bill Belichick is coaching in his 9th Super Bowl as a head coach, but he has been involved in 12 Super Bowls (3 with the Giants and Patriots under Parcells). Rams’ Sean McVay will coach in his first as a coach at any level. It is the old master against the young up and comer. The past vs. the future (like Brady vs. Mahomes Sunday). Can McVay match Belichick’s game plan? Andy Reid got outcoached with a more talented squad, will McVay get the ball to his playmakers?
- Which defense will show up? Rams’ DC Wade Phillips is the last DC to beat Brady in the playoffs (the Eagles allowed Brady to throw for 500 yards so that doesn’t count). The 2015 Broncos hit Brady early and often with press coverage. Can the Rams use that game plan? They have the CBs to try and the interior pass rush that Brady hates with Suh and Donald. On the flip side, the Pats always take away your best players or what you like to do best. What do the Rams do best now? Gurley is a shell right now. Goff will be pressured and need to make throws like he did to Cooks in the 1st half to win. The Pats have improved all season on defense and besides Mahomes virtuosity, they dominated the game.
- What is up with Todd Gurley? I think he is hurt, but the Rams need him to beat the GOAT in Tom Brady. Gurley was not just a fantasy sensation, but the Rams’ best weapon. Yes, CJ Anderson has stepped in admirably, but the offense is different without Gurley.
I’ll write next week on predictions, prop bets and watching traditions that are fun.
Wegs