It was a crazy season for everyone. Now, that I had a minute to recover from the holidays (and the Bears loss in the playoffs), I thought I could do my last Fantasy post on the season.
Big Takeaways
Scoring a Plenty – That is something every Fantasy owner wants – Points and lots of them. The season started out like gangbusters and really continued until maybe mid-December with some crazy totals. In general, NFL totals were up across the board. Yes, there were some teams that grounded the clock to nothing – Dallas, Baltimore and Seattle. More points in the games = Higher Fantasy Scores.
Le’Veon Bell – Remember that guy? The consensus 2nd pick overall. He really hampered a lot of teams out there. In many ways, his absence was worse than having an injury because the specter of him returning impeded you from moving on. 2 Lessons here: 1) Always handcuff those Top 5 RBs – James Connor was incredible in everything but the Fantasy Playoffs and 2) Listen to those reports and adjust accordingly – I advised to drop Bell to at least the late 1st round and even 2nd round, so as not to spend that Top 3 pick on him.
Wait on QB – The theory is proven that waiting on QB was right. The “top” QBs – Rodgers, Watson and Brady were not even Top 3 guys. Guys like Patrick Mahomes was a lot of people’s 2nd QB. Here is the Top 5 at the position – Mahomes (KC), Matt Ryan (ATL), Big Ben (PIT), Andrew Luck (IND) and Jared Goff (LAR) – None of these were taken Top 5 at the position. If you filled your team with good RBs and WRs with one of these guys then you probably did really well.
DST – Never Reach – Another rule proved true. The Jags were the consensus #1 DST on Draft Day. They finished 13th depending on format, but not even close. Top 5 DSTs – Bears, Rams, Texans, Chiefs and Patriots. What is funny about this list is the Bears are an actually good Defense and the Texans are pretty good. However, the other 3 teams are not that great. So, there is absolutely no reason to reach for a DST until the final rounds of the draft.
TE is an All or Nothing Position – So going into the Draft, we said that Gronk, Kelce and Ertz were the only ones to draft until later. That is mostly true, but Gronk clearly wasn’t healthy (12th). George Kittle (2nd) broke out with a huge year breaking the TE yardage record in a season. Eric Ebron (4th) scored 13 TDs. Jared Cook (5th) was up and down, but he broke 100 points in standard. After that, there was a cliff. So, what can we learn from that? Only 3-4 TEs are worth drafting in the first 5 rounds. After that, you will likely either stream or pick a decent guy late – like Kittle or Ebron!!
RB Depth is the Key to Winning – Let’s review all the RBs that missed time – Bell, PIT (noted above), Todd Gurley, LAR (right when you needed him), Melvin Gordon, LAC, even James Connor, PIT (right when you needed him), Kareem Hunt, KC (suspended and dropped from his team!), Joe Mixon, CIN – those guys all finished in the Top 10 except for Bell. Your team needs either handcuffs or depth to make it all 16 weeks of the Fantasy season. Stay active on the wire and trading up until you win the Title!
Rookie/2nd Year RBs are a Premium – Yet again, RBs are key, but young RBs are even more important. In the Top 15 in Standard scoring, 9 of the 15 RBs were either a Rookie or 2nd Year – Saquon Barkley, NYG (2nd), Christian McCaffery, CAR (3rd), Alvin Kamara, NO (4th), James Connor, PIT (7th), Kareem Hunt, KC (8th), Joe Mixon, CIN (9th), Phillip Lindsay, DEN (11th), Chris Carson (14th) and Nick Chubb (15th). You have to take those shots at the Draft and in Free Agency at the young backs. That’s how you win.
100 Targets for WRs is the Goal – Of the Top 15 WRs in Standard Scoring, 8 of the 15 got more than 100 and 1 (Keenan Allen, LAC) had 97. Opportunities to catch the ball, leads to points. In fact only 1 WR received 80 targets or more without getting in the Top 15 (Jarvis Landry, CLE – he was 21st in Standard). So, WRs who get the ball the most will lead to fantasy success. (Oh and Travis Kelce the top TE had 103 targets – see the trend?)
Fantasy Awards
Here is a little end of season Fantasy Awards – the Wegs Ultimate Fantasy Squad 2018:
Most Valuable Player – Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC – I normally would never give this to a QB. Todd Gurley was clearly the #1 pick and delivered. However, Patrick Mahomes scored almost 100 points more than the next QB (Matt Ryan), which over 5.6 points per game in 6 points per passing TDs. That is a full TD better than the next guy. Mahomes eclipsed 5000 yards (5097) and 50 TDs. Yes, he will regress next year, but that is a Top 5 year in NFL history.
Rookie of the Year – Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG – Another Rookie RB takes this one (Kamara would have been my guy last year). Saquon lit it up over and over again finishing less than 9 points after Gurley – 2028 total yards and 15 TDs. He is a fantasy star. He does it all and will be either 1st or 2nd next year, again.
Difference Maker – George Kittle, TE, SF – Mahomes may have been the MVP, but if you drafted or picked up Kittle off waivers, you probably won the title. Kittle from where he was drafted/taken gave your team the most value and that is what wins you cash. Kittle just crushed yardage at 1377 on 88 catches. He only had 5 TDs, but he also had big games when you needed it.
Waiver Wire Star – Phillip Lindsay, RB, DEN – If Barkley or even Baker Mayfield had not just killed it, Lindsay would have been the clear Rookie of the Year. However, for your Fantasy team, this kid came out of nowhere to snatch the job in Denver and really excel. Lindsay finished with 1278 total yards and 10 TDs. He finished 11th at the position in Standard and more importantly didn’t cost you a thing on Draft Day. So, he lifted his teams to many wins.
Really, Dude! – Derrick Henry, RB, TEN – This award goes to the player that really was worthless to you. Henry sucked all year, and the very late goes off the final few weeks. Going in to Week 14 (Playoffs) – Henry 466 yards rushing and 5 TDs. He finished the year with 593 yards and 7 TDs!!! I would be shocked if playoff teams a) owned Henry, b) started him the weeks he went off and c) if you did start him, then God bless you. We may never see someone drafted so highly who did do a thing and then completely defies logic with crushing it late. Honorable mention to Amari Cooper, WR, DAL who found a new life in Dallas after trade from Oakland.
Comeback Player – Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS – The guy is super human, and gave his owners a great RB off the wire – 16th at the position in Standard leagues. He broke 1000 yards and scored 8 total TDs.
Hopefully, I was able to help a few of you out there. I want to improve every year, so if you have suggestions on content, then please comment. I’m here to serve the readers.
Until next summer for Fantasy.
Wegs