The NFL playoffs are great. I got crushed at the betting window, but as John Madden used to say – “It’s the finality of the thing.” Win or go home. The last game was the best one and it crushed me.
Wild Card Recap
COLTS 21 TEXANS 7 – The Colts have been as hot as anyone. Since going 1-5, the Colts have only lost 1 time (at Jags) in their last 11 games. Well, they went to Houston and looked like the favorite. Colts’ QB Andrew Luck was good as usual, but RB Marlon Mack ran all over that Texans D with 148 yards and a TD (6.2 YPC). The Defense was excellent sacking Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson 3 times and getting a Pick. The Colts jumped out 21-0 and didn’t need to score again. They go to KC in the next round. Colts win S/U, Cover ATS (+3) and Under (49).
CHARGERS 23 RAVENS 17 – These teams played just a couple weeks ago, and clearly the Chargers made adjustments. Give DC Gus Bradley credit for employing 7 DBs (in lieu of LBs) to stop this Ravens’ running game. Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson fumbled the ball repeatedly to start and looked jittery. The Chargers sacked Jackson 7 times and forced 3 TOs. The Ravens couldn’t put up any points, despite the Defense playing really well forcing FGs instead of TDs. The Chargers led 23-3 after a critical reviewed fumble returned by the Ravens for a TD. I was a little surprised the Ravens didn’t try Joe Flacco, but finally in the 4th Quarter, the Ravens scored 2 late TDs and had the ball for a chance to tie/win the game. However, the Chargers defense made the last stand to get the win. Chargers go to NE. Chargers win S/U, Cover ATS (+3) and Under (40).
COWBOYS 24 SEAHAWKS 22- The Cowboys were smoked by the ‘Hawks earlier this year in Seattle, but the ‘Boys have been great at home this year. Dallas played their brand of ball running RB Zeke Elliott 26 times for 137 yards (91 in the first half). The Seattle offense was stymied by the Cowboys’ defense holding them under 300 yards (just 73 yards rushing). Still the Seahawks had a chance, but on a critical 3rd and 14 in the Red Zone, Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott made a leaping stretch to get the first down and later they scored to go up 10 with 2:08 to play. Seattle scored and converted the 2 pointer to pull within 2 with 1:18 left, but without a Kicker the onside kick was terrible. Dallas wins and will play at the Rams. Cowboys win S/U, Cover ATS (-1.5) and Over (43).
EAGLES 16 BEARS 15 – This was a rough one to watch. Both defenses played outstanding, as both teams had to settle for FGs on several drives in the first half. Eagles’ QB Nick Foles played well enough to score 2 TDs on this vaunted Bears’ defense. Still, Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky made some plays to get the Bears in position. I didn’t agree with going for 2 up 5 points with 9 minutes to go, and the play call was awful. Still, the Eagles were able to score a TD with 56 seconds to go ahead 16-15 on 4th and Goal. The Bears took the Kickoff back a ways, and WR Allen Robinson had a great catch to put them in FG range. With only a 43 yarder to win, Bears’ Kicker Cody Parkey pulled the double doink off the left upright and then the crossbar. I don’t care if the ball was tipped a bit. Parkey should not have been on this team. Eagles go to New Orleans next week. Eagles win S/U, Cover ATS (+6) and Under (41).
Divisional Round Match Ups & Predictions
COLTS AT CHIEFS (-5.5, TOTAL 57) SATURDAY, 1/12 4:35 PM EASTERN/3:35 PM CENTRAL ON NBC – The Colts are red hot, and that defense is playing extremely well. KC’s QB Patrick Mahomes is having an MVP year, but he has not been on this stage. Plus, the Chiefs have not been as good without RB Kareem Hunt. I may be getting ahead of myself here, but I like the Colts in this game, definitely with the points ATS, but S/U, too. The Total should go Under 57.
COWBOYS AT RAMS (-7, TOTAL 49.5) SATURDAY, 1/12 8:15 PM EASTERN/7:15 PM CENTRAL ON FOX – The Boys do have a good blueprint to beat the Rams – hold the ball and play good defense (Cowboys are 7th in Yards Against). The Rams had a week to get RB Todd Gurley healthy, and DC Wade Phillips should have a good scheme to slow down the Cowboys’ Zeke Elliott. I like the Rams here for the win S/U and ATS, Total will go Over 49.5.
CHARGERS AT PATRIOTS (-4, TOTAL 46) SUNDAY, 1/13 1:05 PM EASTERN/12:05 PM CENTRAL ON CBS – I love this Chargers team this year, but at NE – Belichick vs. Lynn coaching – I’ll take Bill there. With a week to prepare in the Divisional round, the Patriots are lethal. I actually think the spread is pretty low here. I like the Pats S/U, ATS and Under 46.
EAGLES AT SAINTS (-8, TOTAL 51) SUNDAY, 1/13 4:40 PM EASTERN/3:40 PM CENTRAL ON FOX – The Saints beat the Eagles by 40 in November with QB Carson Wentz under center for Philly. With “St. Nick” the Eagles have been incredible, but the Saints are just better. I thought that with the Bears, but Saints’ QB Drew Brees can see the light of the Super Bowl. His window is closing, and I like the Saints to actually trounce the Eagles. I hope it is a better game than expected, but Saints will win S/U, cover ATS and go Under 51.
This should be another fun week.
Wegs