The regular season is over. It is time to look at who can win this thing. I’ll go into each team in detail, their path and review the Playoff Index.
The Teams
AFC
1 Seed – Chiefs (Index 5th at 5.7) – Chiefs are the best offense in the playoffs, but their defense is terrible at 12th. QB Patrick Mahomes threw 50 TD passes and Arrowhead is an incredible environment. Can they stop anybody? Path: Host Chargers/Ravens winner or Colts (if they win), then host Patriots or Chargers/Ravens winner (if things breakdown). They have a good path, but I’m not sure that defense can do it. Only the 2009 Saints have won the Super Bowl with the worst defense entering the playoffs (data since 2009).
2 Seed – Patriots (Index 2nd at 5.2) – New England does what they always do – win their division and host a playoff game. This is likely the weakest NE team in years, but with their last 2 performances against poorer opponents they climbed the Index (#2 team). QB TB12 does not look right, and TE Gronk may be a little healthier now – they will score points. The Defense gives up yards, but can teams go to Foxboro and win? Path: Texans or Chargers/Ravens, then either a trip to KC against the Chiefs or hosting Chargers/Ravens. I actually think if KC gets knocked out in Divisional Round, then they will go back to the Super Bowl – ugh…
3 Seed – Texans (Index 7th at 6.3) – Houston got hot and then cooled off some down the stretch. QB Deshaun Watson can do anything, but he gets sacked, a lot. They need to run the ball to win. The Defense is 3rd in Points Against of the defenses left and #2 in TO differential. However, they have given up big plays. Path: Have to beat Colts at home Wild Card Weekend – a tough divisional opponent, then on to NE where they never win, finally to KC or possibly home game against the Chargers/Ravens. I don’t like their chances.
4 Seed – Ravens (Index 6th at 6.0) – The Ravens with QB Lamar Jackson have been running the ball incredibly – like the SF Colin Kaepernick teams – controlling the clock. The #1 Defense helps to keep games in control. However, can Jackson make the big throw and not turn the ball over? Path: Host Chargers in Wild Card Weekend, at KC (if seeds hold) or at NE (if Colts win), then at NE (if Seeds hold) or at KC (if Colts win WC and lose), or even host Colts. I like their path, but I don’t know if Jackson can do it.
5 Seed – Chargers (Index 9th at 6.7) – QB Philip Rivers has been great this year, and RB Melvin Gordon should be full strength. However, they play their toughest opponent in the Ravens who beat them 2 weeks ago. Their defense is middle of the road in the teams remaining. I love this team, but don’t like their path. Path: At Ravens in Wild Card Weekend, then to KC or NE, finally they will go to either NE or KC or even could host Colts (their best result).
6 Seed – Colts (Index 7th tied with Texans at 6.3) – The Colts have won 9 or 10 games down the stretch. QB Andrew Luck has been great, but the defense has ascended to new heights, but still middle of the pack in the playoffs. They are dangerous. Path: at Texans in Wild Card weekend (they beat them recently there), then at KC, and then any number of places – at NE or at BAL or even at LA Chargers (if they make a run). Luck is the reason they can get to the Super Bowl. They will be a popular dark horse Super Bowl participant.
NFC
1 Seed – Saints (Index 4th at 5.5) – The Saints are the team to beat here. Not only are they near the top of the metrics, but playing in the Super Dome is a huge advantage. New Orleans played good defense this year, but comes in 10th in Points Against of the teams remaining. QB Drew Brees is primed for a run, and they were beaten on a heartbreaker last year. I like this team. Path: Host Cowboys/Seahawks winner or Eagles (if they win), then host Rams or Bears or Cowboys/Seahawks (if Eagles win first game).
2 Seed – Rams (Index 2nd tied with Patriots at 5.2) – Rams missed out on home field throughout, but they will get a game at home. The Rams are the 2nd best offense, but their defense is near the bottom of teams remaining. QB Jared Goff was exposed against the Bears, and RB Todd Gurley who better get healthy. They have great talent on defense, but lacking key stops against better opponents. Path: Host Bears or if Eagles win – Cowboys/Seahawks winner, then at Saints or will host Eagles (if they keep winning) or Cowboys/Seahawks winner (if they upset Saints). I don’t love their path at all, but they have the talent to get the Super Bowl.
3 Seed – Bears (Index 1st at 4.8) – Chicago has surprised even me at how well they have played this year. They are the right there with Baltimore with the best defense, but their offense is near the bottom of teams left. They have feasted on TO Differential all year. I fear that with a team can keep the ball, then they will struggle. QB Mitchell Trubisky can make plays with his legs, but can he hit a secondary read WR? Path: Host Eagles Wild Card Weekend, then on to Rams in LA, then to New Orleans or could host if Cowboys/Seahawks spoil the Saints party. Eagles are really dangerous in the first round, but I can see them in the NFC Championship game if they can beat Philly.
4 Seed – Cowboys (Index 11th at 8.5) – Dallas has been outstanding on defense this year – really the 3rd best D left. The key is can Dallas run the ball effectively against top defenses. Dallas is the worst remaining offense, and if Dak can beat you, let him try. It’s good to see the Boys back, but they are susceptible to an upset. Path: Host Seahawks Wild Card weekend, then to New Orleans for a revenge game or to LA to play the Rams if Eagles win, then either to Rams in LA or Bears in Chicago or even host Eagles in NFC Title Game. I don’t like Dallas in this path at all.
5 Seed – Seahawks (Index 10th at 7.2) – Coach Pete Carroll should really be Coach of the Year. I thought with all the departures, this team would suck. They played the old way running the ball and playing solid defense. They are 1st in TO Margin, which really helps. QB Russell Wilson is the key to their success. Can he make the key plays to convert TDs not FGs? I think he can. Path: At Dallas Wild Card Weekend, then to Saints or even Rams (if Eagles win), then in LA to play Rams (2 great match ups during the year) or at Bears. I actually think Seahawks have a real shot to get to NFC Championship game.
6 Seed – Eagles (Index 12 at 10.3) – The Champs won 5 of 6 to squeak into the playoffs. QB Nick Foles has taken this offense back to the playoff form it had a year ago. Metrically, the Eagles are the worst team in the playoffs, but they have played incredibly the last 6 weeks. It’s hard to bet against this team, but how healthy is Foles? Path: At Bears in Wild Card Weekend, at Saints, then at Rams or Cowboys/Seahawks winner. I can’t see them beating Bears and Saints, but if they do, then they will get back to the Bowl.
NFL Playoff Index – Wild Card Week
The Index has been recalculated based on their regular season final statistics and only the 12 teams remaining. I can say that historically, the Index since 2009 has predicted games at 67.68% straight up. However, this year the Rankings are as bunched up as any year. The last time you saw the ranks like this was 2011 when the Giants ran the table to win the title over the Patriots.
Case for Wild Card Teams to Win it All?
The last Wild Card Super Bowl winner was Green Bay in 2010. In fact, since 2009, there have been only 5 true Wild Card teams to even make the conference Championship Games – NY Jets (2009 – 10th in Index 6.83) Green Bay (2010 – 1st in Index at 3.67), NY Jets (2010 – 6th in Index at 5.67), SF 49ers (2013 – 5th in Index at 5.83). How do we interpret this? It is very hard to run the table on the road in the NFL Playoffs. So, the Colts (8th at 6.3), Chargers (9th at 6.7), Seahawks (10th at 7.2) and Eagles (12th at 10.3). Good luck to you. The metrics tell you that it is possible since the parity is unreal, but that is tough.
Now, how have the 3rd and 4th seed done? Giants won Super Bowl in 2011 (4 Seed and 11th in the Index at 8.33- Defense played way better than regular season), Ravens won Super Bowl in 2012 (4 Seed – 10th in Index at 8.17- Big Upset at DEN), Colts made the AFC Championship Game in 2014 – Deflate Gate (4 Seed – 8th in the Index at 7.17 – Andrew Luck though), Packers made NFC Title Game in 2016 (4 Seed – 8th in the Index at 6.83 – Rodgers was incredible), Steelers made AFC Championship Game in 2016 (3 Seed – 4th in the Index at 5.50) and the Jags made the AFC Championship Game (3 Seed – 2nd best in Index at 3.33).
So, history is against the teams playing in the Wild Card Weekend. However, you can see those teams either were really good metrically or had a great defense or a great QB. This could be the year with the Bears and Ravens on defense or the Chargers, Colts and Seahawks with great QBs.
Wild Card Match Ups
Colts at Texans, -1.5/49 Total (Saturday, 4:35 PM Eastern/3:35 PM Central on ESPN) – These teams split in the regular season, but Colts gifted first game in OT to Texans. These teams are dead even in the Index, and the Colts are red hot. I’d have to say the Colts are my pick here – S/U and ATS – Under 49.
Seahawks at Cowboys, -1.5/43 Total (Saturday, 8:15 PM Eastern/7:15 PM Central on FOX) – Two of my favorite teams this year due to running game and defense. I have to give the edge with Seattle with Wilson. Dak misses too many throws for my liking. Seahawks to win S/U and ATS – Over 43.
Chargers at Ravens, -2.5, 41.5 Total (Sunday, 1:05 PM Eastern/12:05 Central on CBS) – This is a rematch of an earlier meeting. Maybe the Chargers can improve on their performance in that game. Ravens style has worked over and over again. As much as I love the Bolts, the Ravens will take this one S/U and ATS, Over 41.5.
Eagles at Bears, -5.5/41 Total (Sunday, 4:40 PM Eastern/3:40 PM Central on NBC) – Bears have been great all year, while the Eagles are red hot. Hard to pick against the Champs here, but I still like the Bears at home (and 1st in my Index). Bears win S/U and ATS, Under 41.
Should be a great weekend of football.
Wegs
Kudos on another great write up. My picks for wild card weekend (at least for now):
Colts @ Texans – This has shootout written all over it despite both teams having some defensive talent. Both qb’s are more than capable of taking over the games on their own. I think Mack will have a bigger impact on this game than Lamar Miller and Watson won’t go hog wild running the ball. Although Watson has the incredible Hopkins by his side, I agree that the Colts take this first game in an instant classic. Colts win straight up and this game goes over 49 easily, 35-31.
Seahawks @ Cowboys – On the contrary, this game has defensive struggle written all over it. I think both teams lean on their solid running games and chew up the clock. Add in the major edge to Seattle at qb with Wilson and I think the Hawks take this one although it ends up close. Dak coughs up the ball at least once and the Hawks capitalize while holding Cooper to an average game. This one feels like a Hawks win 24-17 going under the 43 total.
Chargers @ Ravens – The playoff seeding format really screwed the Bolts this year. Tied for the conference lead with the Chiefs with a 12-4 record and they land the 5th seed and a road date with the pesky Ravens. OOOF!! That’s terrible. However, I am going with the Chargers in this one. My feeling is that they adjust to what the Ravens did to them 2 weeks ago. Plus add in the fact that Gordon should be close to 100% and was just coming back from his injury the last time they played. They lean on him to neutralize the blitz happy Ravens and Rivers makes just enough pass plays to secure the victory. With no home field advantage to speak of, the Chargers have been road warriors this year with a 7-1 record. They pad that total on Saturday. Count on at least one rookie mistake from Jackson in his first playoff game. Bolts take it 20-14 in a hard fought occasionally ugly game, going under the 41.5 total.
Eagles @ Bears – As a Bears fan, I have to admit that this game absolutely terrifies me! Eagles are on a roll, are the defending champs and are riding the Nick Foles train once again. Major edge to Da Bears on defense here and we’ll need them to do what they’ve been doing all year long to advance. The Eagles don’t have a great running game so we should be able to shut things down on that end. They do have some receiving talent though with your boy Jeffrey, Agholor & the tight end that dashed my dreams for a Fantasy Championship in Zach Ertz. Our defense has been getting turnovers galore this year (flashback to the Lovie days) and we’ll get more of the same to help secure the W. With this being Ole Mitch’s first playoff game he’s a huuuuuge factor. Will Nagy lean on Howard and our running game? We should! Or will he stay aggressive and put the ball in Mitch’s hands? Let’s hope not! Will he also do what he has done on some occasions this year and get “cute” that might lead to some backbreaking turnovers? Please NO!! The Eagles have a secondary that is beyond banged up and can certainly be exploited but I’d rather play it safe here and go all out vs the Rams or Saints if we are able to make it that far. I think this game is closer than what the spread indicates with the Eagles certainly capable of pulling off the road upset. We win a close one (fingers crossed!!) 17-14, going under 41.
With me picking 3 road underdogs to win outright, watch all the home teams win! It’ll be a great weekend of games nonetheless! GO BEARS!