It seems like just yesterday we were prepping for the Draft for weeks only to jump into the season. However, this is the last official week of the Fantasy Season. Yes, there are some crazy leagues that use Week 17 (which is a total mistake, btw). However, this will be the last week of Advice. I’ll do one final post after the Holidays on the Fantasy Awards and potential NFL Playoff contests. Hopefully, this has been helpful for some.
Week 15 Recap
Derrick the Great? – I, honestly, don’t understand it. RB Derrick Henry of the Titans was highly drafted in August. However, he literally sucked all year long. Most people had him on their bench last week for the huge explosion against the Jags. However, he did it again this week. It seems like the Titans actually understand his worth now. He led the league this week again with 33 carries for 170 yards and 2 TDS!! Start him in Week 16.
DeAndre Hopkins Top WR in NFL – WR Hopkins of the Texans actually has been quiet for the past few weeks. However, he showed us Saturday why he could be the top WR selected next season – 10 catches (on 11 targets) for 170 yards and 2 TDs. That is a championship performance.
Keenan Who? – With Keenan Allen out with an injury early in the game, the Chargers turned to 2nd year WR Mike Williams who had his best game as a pro – 9 targets for 7 catches, 76 yards, 2 TDs plus a 2 point conversion and a 19 yard reverse running TD, if you had the guts to start him, then welcome to the Finals.
Damien Delivers – With Hunt released and Spencer Ware out, Chiefs’ RB Damien Williams took the load and all the production – 16 touches for 123 yards and 2 TDs.
Return of the Mack, again – The Colts ran the ball down the Cowboys throats and RB Marlon Mack took over – 28 touches for 148 yards and 2 TDs. Look for more against the Giants.
Life of Dalvin – With the new OC, the Vikings ran the ball at will against Miami – RB Dalvin Cook got 20 touches and produced 163 yards and 2 TDs (Latavius Murray had 68 and a TD). Look for more against the Lions.
That’s The Steeler Way – RB Jaylen Samuels was disappointing last week, but he delivered big against the Pats – 21 touches for 172 yards.
Alshon Hearts Foles – For some reason, QB Nick Foles loves WR Alshon Jeffery who dominated the Rams – 8 catches for 160 yards.
Injuries – BUF – all RBs are injured – LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory missed the game and Marcus Murphy hurt his elbow – Yikes! CIN WR Tyler Boyd injured his knee on Sunday and is questionable, HOU – WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable with ankle as is RB Lamar Miller with ankle, Chargers – RB Melvin Gordon is still questionable with knee, WR Keenan Allen is questionable with hip and RB Austin Ekeler was inactive with neck, Rams – watch RB Todd Gurley’s status who left game for several series, Miami – RB Frank Gore is doubtful with foot injury, Giants’ WR didn’t play again with quad injury, Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz may sit again with back injury and Foles performance, Steelers’ RB James Connor may miss another game with ankle, and SF RB Matt Breida is hurt again with ankle – questionable, SEA RB Rashaad Penny missed game Sunday with a knee injury. Watching MNF, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cam sit out the final 2 weeks.
Championship Week – Go All In
If you won your match up and are in the Finals, Congrats!! You are now in the money. Your season has turned from debt to surplus. You have now officially made it. It’s time now to get the big money and trophy.
Follow the same key principles:
Start Your Studs! Don’t bench Zeke Elliott because he didn’t score. Start Andrew Luck even after a down game. Those are the guys who will bounce back. It’s not worth taking a chance with those guys for some waiver wire dude.
Play Match Ups at Other Positions – Look at those metrics for defense against your players. If it is close in the projection, then look at those marks and the game total. In those close match ups – pick the guy with the higher Ceiling!! Yes, I’ve been preaching Floor players all year, but this week you need the highest score. So, after your Studs, pick the guys in good match ups that can produce big – Mike Williams come to mind.
Definitely Pick the Best Defensive Match Up Available – Defenses this time of year can win you the title. Don’t be afraid to take a chance on an average defense playing a terrible offense – look at Atlanta this week – 14 points, 7 sacks, 3 TOs and a Defensive Score – Cardinals are terrible on offense. Falcons were available everywhere.
Final Week 3 x 4
Waiver Wire Pick Ups
Kalen Ballage, RB, Dolphins (0% Owned) – Gore is hurt, and for some reason Coach Adam Gase doesn’t like Kenyan Drake. The rookie Ballage got 12 carries for 123 yards including a 75 yard TD.
Jamaal Williams, RB Packers (20% Owned) – With RB Aaron Jones leaving the game injured, Williams stepped in for a big game – 16 touches for 97 yards and a TD. He should get more work against the Jets.
Robby Anderson, WR Jets (26% Owned) – Anderson has been really good since Darnold came back. 2 straight games with a TD and 7 or more targets in 3 straight. He can bust, but he is a good flier in Champ Week.
Robert Foster, WR Bills (7% Owned) – Foster has flashed for several weeks, but with another long TD on Sunday, he has back to back 100 yards games and the Bills will play at home and trail the Pats. He is worth a flier.
Last Week: Josh Allen passed for 204 yards with a TD and ran for another TD, so I think that is good production, Tim Patrick – lead Denver in receiving with 5 catches for 65 yards, Robert Foster – as I mentioned above delivered with 108 yards receiving and a TD, Dallas Goeddert was not as effective with the big Jeffery game – just 2 catches for 12 yards.
Sneaky Starts in Champ Week
Jaylen Samuels, RB, Steelers (FD $6700) – The Saints are really good against the run, but Samuels proved very effective in the passing game. I think he will be really good in a shootout in the Dome.
Marlon Mack, RB, Colts (FD $7000) – Mack had a big day against the Cowboys, and now the Colts are 9.5 point favorites at home against the Giants. That should translate into volume.
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (FD $6700) – Yes, this is point chasing, as Baldwin scored 2x last week. However, this was a great sign for a guy who hasn’t played well all year. The Chiefs are weak against the pass (and run), Baldwin is a Red Zone threat and cheap in DFS.
Robby Anderson, WR, Jets (FD $5900) – Anderson has been hot, the Packers could be in mail it in mode. Even if they don’t, their secondary is terrible.
Last Week: Josh Allen, as mentioned above. Doug Martin was a big disappointment with only 9 carries for 39 yards in this blowout. Robert Woods did have 7 catches for 74 yards plus a 19 yard carry, but under performed in Rams’ loss and David Njoku ugh – 3 for 30 yards why?
Defenses to Play
Rams (FD $4900) – Arizona is the worst offense, and the Rams have lost 2 straight. Watch out.
Titans (FD$5500 – Sat Only Contest) – The Redskins played admirably against the Jags, but the Titans are in the playoff mix at home. Should be a good spot for Titans.
Dolphins (FD $4400) – The Jags have not scored an offensive TD in like a century now. Dolphins still have playoff hope at home. Go Fins!
Colts (FD $4500) – Colts play at home and are huge favorites. Eli is garbage. Just need to stop Saquon.
Last Week: Jaguars only gave up 16 points, no TOs, 3 sacks but saved you with a Punt Return TD. Falcons were incredible as noted above, 7 sacks 3 TOs and defensive score. Rams were awful in loss – 30 points against, 1 TO, no sacks. Seahawks also disappointed giving up a special teams TD early only forcing 1 TO and 3 sacks giving up 26 points – not what I was looking for.
Alright, get that Championship to help out with Xmas presents.
Wegs