One thing I love about the NFL is that the minute you think you have it figured out, Sunday happens and all the top teams lose or get pushed to the brink. That is why the NFL is king and there is no question about it.
Week 14 Review – Defense Strikes Back
In a year when there are more points being scored by the whole league, Week 14 showed that at its core, defense matters. Let’s take a look:
Monsters of the Midway – The Bears have been at the top of my Index for weeks, and even if I didn’t trust it, the Bears’ defense dominated the LA Rams on Sunday Night. 4 Interceptions by Goff, 28 yards rushing for Todd Gurley (the league’s leading rusher) and 6 points allowed when 23 was their season low prior. The Bears ran for over 170 yards, too in the 15-6 win. The Bears made it happen and cemented their NFC North Division crown. The Saints and Rams are happy that they don’t have to go to Chicago in January.
Seahawks Pummel the Vikes – The neon green unis must have helped, but the Seattle Defense took apart the Vikings offense on Monday Night Football. Vikings’ QB Kirk Cousins is now 0-7 in Prime Time games, and the Seahawks essentially punch their ticket to the playoffs. Now, the Seahawks also ran for over 200 yards in the game, not to mention a defensive score. No one wants to play this team either. Seahawks win 21-7.
Ravens Can’t Close the Deal – The Chiefs were getting held down by the great Ravens’ Defense for almost 4 quarters. It took QB Patrick Mahomes and a 4th and 9 in his own territory completing an impossible throw to Tyreke Hill to stay alive and eventually tie the game late. After a missed FG by the Chiefs following a Lamar Jackson fumble, the Chiefs prevailed in OT, 27-24. However, the blueprint to beat the Chiefs is out there – run the ball and play tough D.
Green Bay Played D to Stay Alive – QB Aaron Rodgers may have got his coach fired, but he got his team fired up against the Falcons. The Packers’ defense forced 2 TOs including a Pick 6, and the Pack won easily to keep their playoff hopes alive, 34-20.
Crazy Finishes, Too
Raiders Put Steelers on the Ropes – The Raiders have played competitively of late, and they knocked out Big Ben early and back up Dobbs late. The Raiders used a late drive led by QB Derek Carr to go ahead with 21 seconds left, and the Steelers ran a flea-flicker to get in FG range only to have their kicker slip while kicking the ball – 24-21 Final. Steelers drop their 3rd straight game and could miss the playoffs with games against Patriots and Saints in the next 2 weeks.
Miami Miracle Takes Out Pats – The Patriots always have trouble in Miami. Maybe it’s the night life or the heat, but with a 5 point lead after settling for a FG late, Miami had one final drive. With 7 seconds left, Miami ran the flea-flicker special and caught NE with Gronk in the game at Safety instead of their best Safety McCourty. RB Kenyan Drake split the D and went the distance to win the game and knock NE from the 1 seed in the AFC, 34-33.
Cowboys Roll On – Dallas dominated the Eagles all game with almost 600 yards of offense, but QB Dak Prescott turned the ball over to get Philly a shot and force OT. On the opening possession, Dallas sucked 8 minutes off the clock only to have the Philly CB tip the ball up in the air and WR Amari Cooper snatched the ball out of the air for the winning score and his 3rd TD on the day, 29-23. Dallas effectively wins NFC East.
Playoff Scenarios
The Playoff Race is Narrowing now. Here are the teams that still have a shot:
NFC – Saints (In) – 1 Seed, Rams (In) – 2 Seed, Bears (In) – 3 Seed, Cowboys (In) – 4 Seed, Seahawks (In) – 5 Seed, so it is a race for that 6th Slot
Vikings are current 6 Seed – 6-6-1 with Dolphins (home), Lions (road) and Bears (home) – probably best bet
Packers are 5-7-1 with Bears (road), Jets (road) and Lions (home) – Rodgers can do it, but loss at Bears dooms them.
Eagles are 6-7 with Rams (road), Texans (home) and Redskins (road) – if they lose at Rams, they are done – Wentz is missing Rams game Sunday.
Panthers are 6-7 with Saints (home), Falcons (home) and Saints (road) – one loss to Saints will end season and cost Rivera his job most likely.
Redskins are 6-7, but on 3rd string QB – they are done.
AFC – Chiefs (In) – 1 Seed, Patriots (In) – 2 Seed, Texans (In) 3 Seed, Chargers (In) 5 Seed – but win at KC gets them one breathe from the 1 Seed, so race is in AFC North and last Wild Card slot.
Steelers are currently 4 Seed with 7-5-1 record, but they play Patriots (home), Saints (road) and Bengals (home) – they have to win Sunday or that makes Saints game a win or go home game.
Ravens are currently 6th Seed – they have Bucs (home) Chargers (road) and Browns (home) – I like Ravens at 9-7 and jumping Steelers in Division. Ravens have beaten Colts head to head so playoff slot is a near lock with win Sunday.
Colts are 7-6 and have a real shot – Cowboys (home), Giants (home) and Titans (road) – big game this week against Dallas, with win can get to 9-7 and pass Steelers for 6 Seed.
Titans are 7-6 with easy schedule – Giants (road), Redskins (home) and Colts (home) – gotta win next 2 for shot against Colts in Week 17.
Dolphins are 7-6 – Vikings (road), Jags (home) and Bills (road) – actually as bad as they are have a real shot with H2H win over Titans, but loss to Colts.
Week 15 – Key Match Ups
Chargers at Chiefs (-3.5) – Thursday Night Football, 8:20 PM Eastern/7:20 PM Central – With Chargers win, they tie for the Division lead, but Chiefs have better division record. Chargers would need another Chiefs loss to jump them for Division and 1 Seed. Should be a great one.
Packers at Bears (-6) – Sunday, 1 PM Eastern/12 Noon Central – Bears can both avenge early season loss and eliminated Packers officially from the playoffs, but Packers have a window to the playoffs with Vikings’ issues.
Cowboys at Colts (-3) Sunday, 1 PM/12 Noon Central – Colts need the win more than the Cowboys, but Cowboys are on a roll. Should be a good contest.
Patriots at Steelers (+2.5) – Sunday, 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central – Huge game now for seeding and even playoff implications for Steelers. Really a must win for Steelers, so hope it lives up to the hype and a home dog, too.
NFL Index – Week 15
Top 5 Teams
- Bears – Huge win over Rams and that defense is elite. #1 TO Differential carries the day +13.
- Saints – Saints are rising every week and right on the Bears heels. #1 in Scoring Differential +12.6.
- Chargers – Chargers can show me something at Chiefs – Top 8 in all categories except TO Differential +5, which is 12th.
- Rams – Tough loss at Bears, but Eagles could make that better. Defense only 18th and 19th for Points Allowed and Yards Against, otherwise Top 3 in all other categories.
- Texans – Loss against Colts ended hot streak. 5th in Points Against is impressive 19.9 PPG.
Bottom 5 Teams
28. Buffalo – Bills lose head to head against Jets, but stay just ahead due to their defensive metrics – 1st Yards Against in the NFL (290.6).
29. Jets – Jets get win at Bills, but are still not good – 22 or worse in every category.
30. Bengals – Almost beat the Chargers, but still 32nd in Yards Against (421.9) and Points Against (30.5).
31. Cardinals – The offense is so bad – league worst in Yards (242.4) and Points Scored (13.7).
32. Raiders – They are playing more competitively, but really bad defense and can’t score 29th at 18.8 PPG.
Let’s see what Week 15 has for us.
Wegs