After 13 weeks, it is time for the playoffs.  It doesn’t matter what you did in the regular season, if you got into the playoffs, it is a 1 week season now.  Let’s review Week 13 first and then get into how to approach the playoff match up.

                                                                                                                       (Did AJ cost you a spot in the playoffs?)

Week 13:  Disappointments Everywhere

Unfortunately with playoff spots on the line, this week was very polarizing with top performers not coming through for owners (including me).  It was a day of the Haves vs. the Have Nots.

Have Nots First:

  • Hunt Out in KC – At some point, I’ll do a more detailed post on this, but the NFL’s lack of action early led to the immediate release of a top fantasy RB in Kareem Hunt this week.  So, that hurt some owners, but honestly, he probably should have been gone weeks ago.
  • Saints Disappoint – The Cowboys limited all Saints this week, which hurt a ton of owners – QB Brees 127 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, RB Kamara 72 total yards, RB Ingram 28 total yards, WR Thomas 5 catches for 40 yards.  It should get a lot better if you advanced this week at Tampa.
  • Top 10 QBs Disappoint – Brees wasn’t the only guy who killed people this week.  Matt Ryan was limited to just 131 yards and 1 TD against the Ravens, Andrew Luck as kept out of the end zone for the first time in weeks passing for only 248 yards and an INT at the Jags (Houston this week), Cam Newton was just ok against the terrible Bucs defense – 300 yards passing, 33 rushing, 2 TDs, but 4 INTs (Cam plays at CLE so better), Big Ben was also just ok with 281 yards, 2 TDs and an INT at home (which is where he thrives) against the Chargers – Steelers go to Oakland, Kirk Cousins as terrible throwing for 201 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs (now at Seattle, yikes!), Aaron Rodgers only threw for 233 yards and 1 TD – he did add 20 yards rushing (they host ATL) and Jared Goff was not great for 207 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT (at Bears, look out).
  • Other Big Disappointing Performers – WR Julio Jones who had topped 100 yards receiving in 6 straight games was held to just 2 catches for 18 yards for Atlanta, WR AJ Green returned from injury only to be hurt on his first catch and is now out for the year, RB David Johnson ran for just 69 yards and one catch for 3 yards plus was vultured twice on TD runs by Chase Edmonds, WR Adam Thielen saved his day with a TD, but just 28 yards and Stefon Diggs with just 5 catches for 49 yards for the Vikings.

Crazy Good Performances – the Haves

  •  WR Antonio Brown went off – 10 Catches for 154 yards and a TD
  • WR Keenan Allen bested Brown in PPR with 14 catches for 148 yards and a TD on 19 targets!!
  • QB Russell Wilson was super efficient again with 185 yards passing and 4 TDs
  • WR Dante Pettis of SF had a huge day with 5 catches for 129 yards and 2 TDs
  • RB Phillip Lindsay led Denver to victory with 159 yards on 2 touches and 2 TDs (really battling Barkley for Rookie of the Year)
  • RB Tarik Cohen did it all for the Bears with 20 touches leading to 186 yards and he threw the game tying TD with no time left on the clock
  • RB Todd Gurley crushed it again with 26 touches for 164 yards and 2 TDs despite kneeling down at one point before the 2 minute warning (he later scored)
  • TE Travis Kelce was incredible with 12 catches for 168 yards and 2 TDs!!

Injuries of note for the Playoffs – WR AJ Green is out with foot for the year for Bengals, WR Christian Kirk, Cardinals is out for the year with foot injury, RB Gus Edwards has a rib injury and is questionable for the Ravens, QB Cam Newton, Panthers is questionable with shoulder injury and TE Greg Olsen is out for the year with foot injury, QB Mitch Trubisky, Bears is still listed as questionable with shoulder but expected to play, RB Kerryon Johnson is still questionable with knee for Lions, RB Melvin Gordon should miss this week for Chargers, TE Evan Engram, Giants is still questionable with hamstring and WR Sterling Shepherd is questionable with rib injury, RB James Connor, Steelers, left the game due to a lower leg injury – questionable this week, RB Matt Breida, 49ers, is out with an ankle injury, RB Chris Carson is questionable with finger injury, Redskins – QB Colt McCoy broke his leg and is out for the season – Sanchez is QB now – downgrade Redskins.

Playoff Time – Week at a Time

Hopefully, it is clear who to start this week, and you do not need this section.  However, let’s review the basics again, since this week matters not next week.  Most formats are a single elimination format.  If you are in a 2 week format, then you still want to score the most points as possible.

  • Start Your Studs!! – Yes, we had some disappointments this past week.  However, you should go down with your top players in your lineup.  Again, that means Top 7 or 8 QB, Top 10 RBs and Top 10 WRs, and Top 3 TEs.  Other than that, you can look at the match up.
  • Floor Players Over Ceiling Players – You should still start the player you can count on more in the playoffs.  Look at the last 4 weeks of performance for a player.  Have their targets, carries or pass attempts been consistent?  Did they spike one week only to get a zero the next?  Zero or low totals will kill you in the playoffs.  You can work with floor guys to get you a safe number while your studs can get you the big numbers.
  • Injured Players – When in doubt, play the healthier player.  I’m looking at you, AJ Green.  If a guy is coming back off an injury, then you may want to stay away with a like ranked guy.  An injury in game is something you cannot change or plan for, but you can avoid it, if you take the injured player out of the equation.  Like I said, this cost me a playoff spot in one league with Green.
  • Game Totals – Check the Vegas expected totals for the games.  Also check your team total for your player’s team.  If it comes down to a similar, non-stud player, then pick the game expected to score more points.
  • Rankings Against the Position – Most sites will tell you where the defense ranks against a given position.  Ideally, you are starting people against Defensive Units 20 or higher in a match up.
  • Play the Match Ups at Defense and TE – If you do not have an elite unit on Defense, than look at the projections and match ups.  Defenses can be an edge in a close match up.  The same goes for TE, you want a guy who will score a TD or have a chance to.  If your guy has been up and down, then look at TE on the wire to upgrade for one week.
  • Don’t Worry About Your Opponent’s Projection – A lot of people tell you to “swing for the fences” if you are expected to lose the match up.  First off, how often are the projections wrong?  I find those projections to be right no better than 50% of the time.  So, you can only control you team.  Put up a good score and see what happens.  There is no need to chase the top team with all boom or bust players.  If you do that, then you will win 1 in 5 times, in my experience.  Go down with your best, most consistent scoring team.  The other guy could have a bad week, too or just a below “projection” game.

The bottom line here is the process shouldn’t change fundamentally, but take chances in a measured way that will get you a reasonable assumed point total.

Playoff Version 4 x 4 (which is a 3 x 4 – No Trades)

Waiver Wire Targets (60% or Less) – Note hopefully, you already had RB Spencer Ware of the Chiefs as a handcuff, which I suggested a couple weeks ago – he replaced Hunt and is now 95% Owned.

  • Jaylen Samuels, RB, Steelers (13% Owned) – He is the clear handcuff or James Connor and with Connor potentially hurt, you have to speculate on him this week.
  • Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals (4% Owned) – Not a starter this week, but it is hard to overlook 2 TDs in a game.
  • Dante Pettis, WR, 49ers (7% Owned) – Pettis has been the #1 WR the past couple of weeks in SF, and he went off this week with 129 yards and 2 TDs, but he has gotten 6 or 7 targets for 3 straight games now.
  • Ian Thomas, TE, Panthers (1% Owned) – With Olsen out, the rookie is going to get looks.  He got 5 targets converting into 5 catches and 46 yards.

Last Week:  Justin Jackson – I told you he would be involved and he got it done in the comeback 9 touches 82 yards and a TD, Nyheim Hines was good in PPR with 9 catches for 50 yards, David Moore completely disappeared in this one – strange, and Matt LaCosse was not a factor with only 1 target.

Sneaky Starts (Not Typical Guys)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (FD$7500) – I’m not sure if you are seeing what is happening, but the Ravens are controlling clock with Jackson the field.  He has now run for over 75 yards in every start.  The Chiefs are not great against the run already.  I like him again this week.
  • Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks (FD$5000) – The Vikings defense has been solid against the run, but with Carson looking hurt or out, Penny should get his chance.  He can also catch the ball.  The Seahawks will be committed to the run despite the match up, too.
  • Justin Jackson, RB, Chargers (FD$4500) – A hot waiver wire pick up will deliver in this on, as the Bengals are basically not playing defense anymore.  Lindsay ran for big numbers, and Jackson could to.  He is a free square in Daily Fantasy.
  • Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons (FD$5700) – This has become a who cares game, but the Packers have been decimated in the secondary.  I think they try to double Julio and someone benefits.  Hooper is my pick.

Last Week:  Case Keenum was not great with 151 yards and 1 TD (they ran the ball a ton), Malcolm Brown was a non-factor with the game close and he got injured, DJ Moore was ok with 6 touches for 65 total yards (not as expected), and Trey Burton, well, I was dead wrong here, Daniel can’t connect to Burton only 1 target (Trubisky, please!).

Defensive Match Ups

  • Bills (FD$4200) – Bills at home will play the Jets tough.  The total is lowest on the board at 38.5 and in the last meeting –
  • Chargers (FD$4600) – Chargers should smash the Bengals in this game and be up big forcing Driskell to throw a lot leading to TOs.
  • Broncos (FD$4800) – The 49ers have been turning it over at a good clip with Mullins under center.  The Broncos can get after him a lot and get TOs and a ton of sacks.
  • Cowboys (FD$3700) – I’m sold on the Cowboys defense.  At home against the Eagles on a short week.  Sign me up.

Last Week:  Seahawks did great with allowing 16 points, getting 3 sacks, and 3 TOs including a Pick 6, Eagles allowed 13 points, got 3 sacks and 1 TO, Titans were not very good allowing 22 points, 2 sacks and forcing 1 TO, and Packers were an utter disappointment allowing 20 points (in a loss), 2 sacks and 0 TOs for a team that was near the bottom.

Good luck this week.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.