The NFL is the best league because the schedule always puts potential playoff teams against each other every single week.  Teams that are on the verge of the playoffs need to earn their way in, especially with how the division games stack up this time of year.  It’s crazy.

Week 12 Review

We all know the top dogs in each conference, but check out these teams that are making a move.

  • Cowboys Control Destiny – The Boys have turned their season around, and now lead the NFC East with the win over Washington on Thanksgiving, 31-23.  So, at 6-5, they can win the division or make the Wild Card.  They host the Saints this week, so the pack should catch up to them, but those last 2 games look easy – Bucs and Giants.
  • Colts Keep Winning – The Colts have now won 5 games in a row to move to 6-5.  QB Andrew Luck has been outstanding, but I have to give a lot of credit to Coach Frank Reich.  He has made great decision, time and time again (since that 4th down debacle against HOU).  Watch out for this team.  They go to Jacksonville, who keeps losing.  In Week 12, the Dolphins had the lead, but the Colts gritted out the win 27-24.
  • Broncos Are Right There – I thought last week was a fluke at LA Chargers, but this week, the Broncos took down the Steelers who continue to turn the ball over (-7 TO Margin).  The Broncos have given up a ton of yards (500 or more 2 straight weeks), but holding Chargers to 22 and Steelers to 17.  Their schedule is soft (CIN, SF, CLE, OAK and LAC) and at 5-6, they have a shot at the playoffs – Broncos win 24-17.
  • Seahawks Get Rugged Win – At Carolina, another WC team, the Seahawks stole the hearts of Panthers’ fans as Russell Wilson converted on a clutch 4th down to keep the drive moving and eventually win the game, 30-27.  At 6-5, the Seahawks are just outside of the playoffs, but they get the 49ers 2x in the next 3 weeks and the Cardinals in Week 17.  That’s 9 wins to me, which could be enough.
  • Vikings Get One – The Vikes needed that one on SNF giving the Pack and Rodgers their 6th road loss on the season, 24-17.  They will have to earn their spot with games at Patriots and Seattle in the next 2 weeks before things let up against Miami, DET and then Bears (which could be a meaningless game for them).
  • Ravens are Winning on Ground – With QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have won 2 straight with 34-17 win over Oakland to move to 6-5.  They have a huge game at ATL and then at the Chiefs in Arrowhead, but after that – Bucs, at Chargers (not great) and Browns.  If they can beat, ATL, then they should get to 9 wins.

Week 13 – Games to Watch

  • Saints at Cowboys (+7.5) – Thursday Night Football, 8:20 Eastern/7:20 PM Central on FOX – The Saints should win, but the Cowboys are playing really good on defense.  Can the ‘Boys slow down this juggernaut?  Probably not, but this is a potential playoff match up.
  • Vikings at Patriots (-5) – The Vikes have righted their ship, but they need to play a complete game to win in Foxboro.  Patriots have not been dominant, so this one should be a good one to watch.  Sunday, 4:25 PM Eastern/3:25 PM Central on FOX.
  • Chargers at Steelers (-3.5) – These two teams have all the talent, but the coaching can be suspect at times.  Both teams stubbed their toes against the Broncos.  With the Melvin Gordon injury, the Chargers may be undermanned, but this should be a shootout and a potential Wild Card weekend match up.  Sunday Night Football, 8:20 PM Eastern/7:20 PM Central.

NFL Index Week 13

NFL Index W13

Top 5 Teams

  1. Bears – Even with the back up QB, the team got the win on S Eddie Jackson’s pick 6 to win the game (and Cover).  +14 TO Differential really helps a struggling offense.
  2. Saints – The Saints are the best team according to the eye test, and we will see how they fare against a top Defensive unit on Thursday. #1 in Scoring and Point Differential.
  3. Chargers – Actually tied with the Saints in the Index, the Chargers dominated a bad Cardinals team.  Let’s see if the defense can play well enough to slow down the Steelers who are a different team at home.  Chargers are Top 10 in every Index Category.
  4. Rams – Rams go on a bye and drop a slot.  The Rams will have a road tune up in Detroit before having to face the top team in the Index at Solider Field.  Maybe a look ahead spot.  Rams are Top 3 in Offensive Categories, Scoring Differential and TO Margin (now about that defense?).
  5. Ravens – Probably an easier schedule helps this rating, but the Ravens have back to back wins and are running the ball on opponents and holding them off the scoreboard.  #1 in both defensive categories.

Bottom 5 Teams

28.  Dolphins – A good showing at Indy, but the record is a mirage, this team is over 20 in every category but TO Differential (+6).

29.  Bengals – This team is not good, and the Hue Jackson addition has not helped.  Bengals are the worst defense in the NFL (Yards Against and Points Allowed) and now 29th in Scoring Differential.  Looks like a team who has quit.

30. Jets – QB McCown has not been better than Darnold.  Jets are 26th or worse in Yards, Points Scored, Scoring Differential and TO Margin.

31.  Raiders – Hooray!  The Raiders are not last now.  They still are terrible, though only averaging 17 points a game (30th) and allowing 29.7 PPG (30th).  Not a good combination for the worst Scoring Differential (-12.7).

32.  Cardinals – The Cards have fallen down the list with the worst offense in the NFL – 232.5 YPG and 14.4 PPG.  that is atrocious, plus -9 TO Margin (29th) make the Cardinals the actual worst team.

3rd Quarter Predictions Review – Actual (Prediction):

AFC East

Patriots 8-3 (10-1) 2 Seed – The Patriots had a slow start, but are rounding into form in time for the stretch run.

Dolphins 5-6 (3-8) – The Dolphins are beginning to regress to the mean here.

Bills 4-7 (2-9) – A strange year for the Bills.

Jets 3-8 (0-11) – The Jets have defied expectations, but needle is going down at last.

AFC North

Steelers 7-3-1 (10-1) 4 Seed – Steelers also rebounded after a poor start, but at 4th Seed now.

Ravens 6-5 (7-4) 6 Seed – Ravens are in the mix for the final Wild Card spot.  About as expected.

Bengals 5-6 (3-8) – The wheels are falling off the wagon here.  Lewis should be gone soon.

Browns 4-5-1 (3-8) – Browns without Hue Jackson have been better and could ascend standings in the North.

AFC South

Texans 8-3 (6-5) 3 Seed – Hard to argue with 8 straight wins by hook or crook, but they have a 2 game lead in the division.

Colts 6-5 (3-8) – Defying expectations with 5 straight wins, Frank Reich could be Coach of the Year candidate.  They are 5-4 in AFC vs. 6-3 for Ravens at this point.

Titans 5-6 (5-6) – Exactly as predicted, Titans are in the mix, but 2 straight losses have hurt their chances.

Jags 3-8 (9-2) – Total disappointment and with the straight losses stacking, the Blake Bortles era is over.

AFC West

Chiefs 9-2 (6-5) 1 Seed – The favorite in the AFC needs to find a bit more defense to be a title contender.

Chargers 8-3 (9-2) 5 Seed – Chargers are playing well, but can they win the big game.  We will see against the Chiefs, Round 2 in Arrowhead.

Broncos 5-6 (5-6) – As predicted, but if they can close with easy schedule, then they can jump Ravens and Colts.

Raiders 2-9 (4-7) – The worst team in the AFC and getting worse.

NFC East

Cowboys 6-5 (5-6) 4 Seed – The Amari Cooper trade was a steep price but has led to 3 straight wins and the division lead.  That defense is legit.

Redskins 6-5 (4-7) 6 Seed – The Alex Smith injury will take a toll over the long haul, but the defense gives them a shot each week.  Big game on MNF this week.

Eagles 5-6 (7-4) – The Super Bowl hangover is hitting this team.  They are still in it, but need to make a run.  Must win against WAS on MNF.

Giants 3-8 (5-6) – A disappointment this year, but the offense is finally showing signs of life.

NFC North

Bears 8-3 (7-4) 3 Seed – Not totally surprising, but the rest of the division has under-performed.  The Bears are a playoff team, especially with remaining schedule.

Vikings 6-4-1 (9-2) 5 Seed – The inconsistency at the QB with Cousins has led to some let downs.  They can make the playoffs, but the next 2 weeks at NE and SEA will determine a lot.

Packers 4-6-1 (8-3) – Huge disappointment with 0 road wins this year.  Pack will miss the playoffs again (McCarthy should be fired).

Lions 4-7 (5-6) – Weird year for the Lions, but they are about as expected.

NFC South

Saints 10-1 (6-5) 1 Seed – I expected the Saints in the playoffs, but they are playing at a Championship level.

Panthers 6-3 (8-3) – With 3 straight losses, the Panthers have to play NO twice in the last 5 weeks.  Good luck.

Falcons  4-7 (8-3) – ATL’s playoff hopes are gone this year, but they can be spoiler to other teams trying to Dance.

Bucs 4-7 (1-10) – The Bucs have exceeded expectations, but I still see Koetter fired at the end of the year.

NFC West

Rams 10-1 (10-1) 2 Seed – As predicted, at the top of the class with NO, unless stumbles happen, the Rams should be playing at NO for NFC title.

Seahawks 6-5 (1-10) – I give Pete Carroll a ton of credit for making this young team compete every week with the old blueprint.  I like this team for a playoff spot and trail WAS in conference record only, for now.

Cardinals 2-9 (1-10) – A terrible team, but with 2 wins over SF, that puts them ahead in the standings.

49ers 2-9 (7-4) – I guess Jimmy G is worth 5 wins at this point.  Rueben Foster dismissal is not good.

We are entering the Final Quarter of the Season.  It’s go time.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.