We have been working through the season one week at a time, which is all you can do.  However, most leagues have 2 weeks to go.  It’s time to get your lineup maximized to win and get a playoff berth.  Let’s review Week 11 first.

Week 11 Review:

  • Game of the Millennium? – Well, hopefully, you were not going up against any Rams or Chiefs on MNF, but that game was insane.  105 points scored, 3 Defensive TDs, over 1000 yards of total offense.  Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes threw for 6 TDs (3 INTs), while Rams’ QB Jared Goff threw for 4 TDs.  It was the ultimate in fantasy bounty on this Thanksgiving week (except for RB Todd Gurley).  Maybe we will be treated to that again in the Super Bowl.
  • Saints Are Marching Still – Start your Saints!!  Seriously, every single week, they are the best offense in the league now.  Yes, even better than the Chiefs and Rams.  This offense is a wrecking crew.  QB Drew Brees needs to be in the MVP conversation.  He went out and did 323 yards passing and 4 TDs (no INTs) against the Super Bowl Champs.  RB Mark Ingram 16 carries for 103 yards and 2 TDs, WR Michael Thomas delivered 4 for 92 and a TD, RB Alvin Kamara 14 touches for 108 total yards and a TD and even WR Tre’Quan Smith gave us 10 for 157 and a TD.  Another big game in Week 12.
  • Not Just Luck – QB Andrew Luck has not been sacked for 5 games in a row, and as a result has now thrown multiple TDs in every game this year.  Luck had 297 yards on just 23 completions with 3 TDs.  WR TY Hilton lit up the Titans secondary with 9 for 155 yards and 2 TDs.  The Colts are rolling.
  • Cowboys Ride Zeke Again – The Cowboys have their script now.  Give the ball to Zeke!!  Zeke had 30 touches for 201 total yards a TD.  In the last 3 Cowboys’ wins, Zeke has touched the ball 25 times or more.  Hmm, may be a trend.
  • Bucs Backup Does It Again – This time QB Jameis Winston pulled a FitzMagic coming in and lighting up the Giants defense and filling the stat sheet.  Good news for TB pass catchers, but bad news for Fitz owners.  In other news, the Giants lit up the Tampa defense.
  • Lamar Jackson is Here – The Ravens let rookie QB Lamar Jackson start, and he did what he can do – 27 rushing attempts for a QB?  Yes, and he gave us 117 yards plus 150 yards passing.  Not to mention, he gives the Ravens’ RB value, but now that is Gus Edwards, I guess.  Edwards got the ball 17 carries for 115 yards and a TD.  Keep that in mind, especially in Daily Fantasy.
  • Jags Blow It, but Fournette Rocks – The Jags have the script to beat the Steelers and that is very Cowboys-like – give the ball to RB Leonard Fournette – 30 touches for 141 yards and a TD.  If the Jags don’t try to tank, then I would expect more of this.
  • Injuries – BAL – QB Joe Flacco missed the game and may continue, CIN – WR AJ Green is still questionable, but check reports, DET – WR Marvin Jones missed the game with knee injury, RB Kerryon Johnson is questionable with knee injury on short week, LAR – WR Cooper Kupp did tear ACL and out for the year, MIA – WR – Devante Parker is doubtful with shoulder injury, QB Ryan Tannehill is still questionable, NE – TE Rob Gronkowski is questionable with back injury, NYJ – QB Sam Darnold is questionable with foot, WR Robbie Anderson is questionable with ankle, OAK – WRs Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant missed the game with knee injuries, and Brandon LaFell tore his Achilles, RB Doug Martin is questionable with ankle injury, PHI – Center Jason Kelce left the game and is questionable with elbow injury, TB – RB Ronald Jones missed another game with hamstring injury, TEN – QB – Marcus Mariota left the game and is questionable with a “neck” injury but there was talk it was his elbow like before, WAS QB Alex Smith brutal leg break (2 bones), WR Jamison Crowder missed the game as did RB Chris Thompson.

Playoff Run Prep

Last week we talked about your lineup composition.  Your roster should have no doubt Studs, a couple of match up DSTs or TEs, RB handcuff(s) and hopefully a few breakout players you have cultivated over the season.  This should be your week by week prep checklist:

  • Lock In Your Studs – Don’t look at the match up, but if you have a player in the Top 10 at the position then start them.  Start your Studs!  Don’t get cute.  Ask yourself this question, if you start RB Josh Adams in a good match up against the Giants versus Christian McCaffery against the Seahawks, how would you feel if McCaffery goes off?  Let your bench guys blow up.  It’s fine.  You have to start the guys you can count on every single week in Top 10 spots.
  • Upside Plays in Good Match Ups – Now, it is unlikely you have a Stud at QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE spot.  So, in the spots you have a question, then that is the spot you can gamble on.  I like building my bench with young (rookie or 2nd year) upside players.  Then, I look at the match up and put them in accordingly.  Guys who I’m talking about here:
    • RBs – Josh Adams, Eagles, Gus Edwards (see below), Ravens – hopefully, you were lucky enough to have Philip Lindsay, Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson
    • WR – Kenny Golladay, Lions, Tre’Quan Smith, Saints, DJ Moore, Panthers, Marques Valdes-Scantling, Packers, Christian Kirk, Cardinals
  • Stream TEs and DSTs or Play Match Ups
    • TEs – Outside of Kelce, Ertz and Kittle – all TEs are match up based decisions.  So, you probably should have 2.  Look at the match up against and how the defenses cover the outside WRs.  Also, back up QBs like Gabbert in TEN and McCoy in WAS will lean more on the TE, so Jordan Reed and Jonnu Smith are guys to target.  The goal here is to target TEs who can score a TD and in PPR will get 5 or more targets in a given week.
    • DSTs – This is critical in looking ahead in the schedule.  I don’t love carrying a 2nd DST, but if you DST plays any of the following – Rams, Chiefs, Saints, Steelers or Patriots during the playoffs or in the next 2 weeks when you have to win, then look at that week’s match ups.  Maybe you can get that DST now for that game alone now.

Ultimately, the goal is always to put a team out there that can score a consistently high number each and every week.  Your base score comes from the Studs (probably 40-60%) and the other part is the match up plays and DSTs/TEs.  Of course, you want your team to go off every week.  However, I would say that the team that consistently scores a good number will always get to the money week.

Week 12 4 x 4

Byes:  Big bye with 2 great teams – Chiefs and Rams.

Waiver Wire Pick Ups (60% Owned or Less)

  • Jameis Winston, QB, Bucs (25% Owned) – It’s back to Winston in Tampa.  They have a great schedule and always need to chuck it.  Why not?
  • Josh Adams, RB, Eagles (56% Owned) – I’ve mentioned him before, but he finally got his shot with the most touches – 7 carries for 53 and a TD, 6 targets for 3 catches and 19 yards.
  • Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens (0% Owned) – Virtually unowned out there, Edwards got 17 carries and produced with over 100 yards and a TD.  Why would this change?
  • DJ Moore, WR, Panthers (50% Owned) – Moore broke out again with a huge game.  He got 8 targets and produced big – 7 catches for 157 yards and a TD (should have had a 2nd)

Last Week:  Rashaad Penny – 8 carries for 48 yards (still could get more touches), Spencer Ware – did not get a touch, but if Hunt goes down he’s in for big production , Anthony Miller – only 3 targets for 2 catches and 25 yards, but a TD , Jonnu Smith – 8 targets for 6 catches and 44 yards.

Trade Targets (Final Grouping with Deadline Looming)

  • Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals – Back to back not great games will show a lower value for Mixon than he should have.  Mixon gets the Browns twice, Raiders, Broncos and Chargers none with great run defenses for the rest of the year in Fantasy.  Get him if you can.
  • Sony Michel, RB, Patriots – A forgotten man with the injuries, but after the bye, Michel should be 100% and it is time for the Pats to push as high as they can to get that bye.  I expect Michel to get the ball a lot down the stretch.
  • Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams – Not a buy low really, but with Cooper Kupp out, Cooks will get more looks.  I like him in the playoff run due to his explosiveness.  Woods will also get more volume, but with less big play potential.
  • David Njoku, TE, Browns – He is inconsistent, but the match ups down the stretch are incredible – 26th, 22nd, 32nd, 28th and 26th again.  That sounds tasty.

Last Week:  Phillip Lindsay is great – 15 touches for 106 and 2 TDs, Larry Fitzgerald – 2 TD catches, Corey Davis – took a step back with only 2 catches and with Mariota injury hurting him, too, Austin Hooper got the targets with 8, but only 4 catches for 27 yards (stay patient).

Sneaky Starts (Not Typical Guys)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens (FD $7400) – Not a starter necessarily in your season long leagues, but at home against the Raiders who are not good, sign me up.  I expect Jackson to break off at least one big run for a score and even throw one here.
  • Marlon Mack, RB, Colts (FD $7000) – Mack is good when he stays on the field (last week 16 carries for 61 yards and a TD).  The Dolphins have been getting worse on defense each week, even after the break.  The Colts are favored by 9.5 which should mean a lot of carries for Mack.
  • Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons (FD $6500) – This is on Thursday, but the Falcons will be trailing and that means a lot of passing.  Coleman should catch at least 5 dump off passes plus his normal rush volume.  I’m seeing 15-20 touches here and a TD.
  • Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks (FD $6500) – Baldwin showed some life last Thursday night with 10 targets, 7 catches, 52 yards and a TD.  I like him again this week at Carolina who seems to be struggling now defensively.

Last Week:  Alex Collins – got a TD, but was outshined by Edwards, Tre’Quan Smith – I called this – huge game 13 targets, 10 catches for 157 and a TD, Christian Kirk broke a big play on a screen pass for a TD en route to 3 catches for 77 yards and a TD, and Jonnu Smith was good in PPR with 6 catches for 44 yards.

Studs to Bench – I’m going to eliminate this section for here through the playoffs and replace with DST Match Ups to Target

  • Texans (FD $4700) – At home against the Titans, Texans will likely face QB Blaine Gabbert.  Texans need to keep rolling with the Colts in their rearview mirror.  Start the Texans with confidence.
  • Colts (FD $4400) – The Colts are playing great football on both sides of the ball.  With the Dolphins off the bye and still with Osweiler at QB, I like the Colts to light up that offense.
  • Cowboys (FD $4800) – The ‘Boys are playing great defense.  They will get QB Colt McCoy on a short week.  McCoy can be capable, but I think this defense is playing at a different level now, plus tons of injuries for WAS O-Line.  Cowboys should feast.
  • Chargers (FD $4900) – The Chargers played terribly this past week even with Bosa.  However, the Cardinals are a turnover machine.  I expect at least 2 TOs and several sacks this week.

Last Week:  Aaron Rodgers still delivered – 332 yards and 2 TDs, Phillip Rivers – threw for 401 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs still good, Mark Ingram – I was way off here – huge game against the now maligned Philly run defense – 103 rushing yards and 2 TDs, Antonio Brown saved his day with that 78 yard TD and 5 catches for 117 and that TD. As I said before, start your studs…

Ok, get your win and then we will have just one more week to the playoffs.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.