The NFL despite all the rule changes still shows you that sheer physical dominance can still win in this league.  Sure all the rule changes have helped offenses score.  However, I still contend if you can’t run the football, then you won’t win.  That translates in Fantasy, too.  If you do not have dominant RBs on your team, then you can’t win your title.

                                                                                                            (Zeke was a hurdler on the track.)

Week 10 – Observations

  • Zeke Elliott Is Great – From the jump, the Cowboys lined up against that Eagles front and simply pummeled them.  Zeke was ripping off runs left and right, hurdling guys.  Yes, Dak mixed it up with some nice passes to wide open targets as the Eagles secondary continued to get injured.  Yet, Elliott was sublime, look at the stats – 19 carries for 151 yards (almost 8 yards a carry) and a TD, plus 6 catches for 36 yards and a TD.  If the Cowboys can dictate game script, then he is unstoppable.
  • Packers Need to Run More – RB Aaron Jones finally got his due with 15 carries (still not enough) leading to 145 yards and 2 TDs, plus 3 catches for 27 yards.  Aaron Rodgers is incredible, but the run game opens up the pass game.  Plus, it saves Rodgers the 4th Quarter.  Coach McCarthy is not a good playcaller.  So, I don’t expect him to do what makes sense, but run the ball with Jones, no one else!!
  • Luck is Match Up Proof– Despite their record, the Jags’ defense was still a top unit.  Well, Luck carved them up to the tune of 285 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT.  Luck hasn’t been sacked since September or something.  Finally, the Colts have a line to match up with Luck’s arm.  He is a must start every single week.
  • Mitch Loves Bad Defenses – I’m not buying the Bears in general, but how can you fault Trubisky lighting up these terrible defenses.  355 Yards is a career high on 23 completions???  Plus 3 TDs and 0 INTs.  The Nagy system has people running free all the time, plus a running TD.  The kid can score a ton in plus match ups, and the Bears still have Lions, Giants, and 49ers left on the schedule.  Keep that in mind.
  • Nick is Chubbin’ – The Browns have made 2 good moves in the past few weeks – 1) Firing Hue Jackson and 2) Opening the door to Chubb by trading Hyde.  RB Nick Chubb has been a machine since taking the reins has gotten 18+ carries in every game.  He popped off a 92 yard run this week and totaled 176 yards plus 33 receiving for 2 TDs.  He is a clear starter the rest of the way.
  • Key Injuries – WR Cooper Kupp, Rams, is out for the year with ACL injury, WR AJ Green, Bengals, still out with foot injury, RB Royce Freeman, Broncos, still questionable with ankle injury, WR Marvin Jones, Lions, is questionable with knee injury, TE Jimmy Graham, Packers, is questionable with knee, WR Keke Coutee, Texans, is questionable with hamstring injury, CB AJ Bouye, Jags, is still questionable with calf injury, WR Devante Parker, Dolphins, is doubtful with a shoulder injury (on bye), WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings, is still questionable with ribs,  WR Julian Edelman, Patriots, is questionable with an ankle injury (on bye), TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots, is still questionable with a back injury (on bye), WR Dez Bryant, Saints, tore his Achilles and will not play this season, WR Robbie Anderson, Jets, is questionable with ankle (on bye), QB Sam Darnold, Jets is questionable with foot injury (on bye), WR Jordy Nelson, Raiders, is questionable with knee, WR Martavis Bryant, Raiders is also questionable with a knee injury, Eagles CBs – Jalen Mills (questionable), Ronald Darby (out), and Sidney Jones (questionable), RB James Connor, Steelers, is in concussion protocol, WR Pierre Garcon, 49ers, is questionable with knee injury (on bye), RB Chris Carson, Seahawks, is questionable with hip injury, RB, Ronald Jones, Bucs, is questionable with a hamstring injury, and in Washington – WR, Jamison Crowder is still questionable with ankle and RB Chris Thompson with rib injury.

Week 11 – Trade Deadline – Time to Consolidate Power

We are just 3 weeks away from the Fantasy Playoffs.  This week is the last major bye week with 6 teams out.  However, many leagues set next week as the Trade Deadline.  So, it would be prudent to look at trades this week as to not push that deadline.  Here are some rules of thumb as you approach the playoffs:

  • Studs Are A Premium – The Fantasy Playoffs usually pit the top teams in your league against one another.  The winner of your league will likely have the team with the most studs on it.  Yes, match ups play a part, and you will find some waiver wire guys who can put you over the top.  However, if you have a choice between 2 starters over 1 stud in a trade, then take the Stud.  What is a Stud?  A Stud is a Top 5 RB, Top 7 WR, Top 5 QB, and this year a Top 3 TE.  So, look at your league, see if anyone is on the fringe of the playoffs that needs a starter this week with the byes.  If the Stud is on bye, all the better.  Make an offer for the Stud giving 2 viable starters now for the bye stricken owner.  Of course, this assumes you are comfortable in your position in the league.
  • On the Fringe, Just Win Baby – On the flip side of that first point, if you are on the fringe of the playoffs, then don’t be afraid to trade someone.  You have to win THIS WEEEK.  There is no tomorrow for you.  So, don’t mortgage the entire team, but be strategic in getting players who can help you win this week via a good match up or more importantly replacing a bye guy with a real starter not a waiver wire flier.  Get in the Dance and worry about it later.
  • Cuffing Season – Just like dating, this is the time to Handcuff your best RB.  If you have one of the Top 7 Backs, then you definitely should own the back up RB.  Some leagues limit waiver wire transactions in the playoffs (I don’t like this rule, but what can you do).  So, be wise and have the backfield locked up.  If you are bye stricken in Week 11, then be sure to do it in Week 12.  Here are the current list of Handcuff provided to you by CBS:  https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/depth-chart/RB/
  • Ideal Roster Composition – So, the ideal Playoff Roster would look like this:  Stud QB, Stud RB, 2nd RB, Stud WR, 2nd WR, TE that can score a TD each week, K, and Decent DST.  The bench should be Stud RB handcuff, Solid RB, Solid WR, Upside WR, and depending on league size – Match Up TE or DST.  There is no reason to carry a 2nd QB unless your starter is only Top 10.  Then, you can carry a 2nd QB for the match up.  However, I advise to pick a horse here.  You will inevitably pick the wrong guy each week.  Same goes for the WRs.  Ideally, you will have 2 or 3 guys who are head and shoulders above the rest.  Then, you just start them.  Making those decisions every week will kill you.  Now, DST or TE are different.  DSTs can vary wildly week to week.  Plus, if your great DST plays the Chiefs or Rams, then are you really going to start them?  So, the match up plays for me will be at DST and TE not QB or WR.  RB is tough.  That is why it is ideal to trade for a stud and lock up his back up.  Usually the team with 2 high quality RBs will win the league.
  • Look at the Playoff Schedule – A good way to target players is by looking at Weeks 14 and 15 match ups.  If your players have favorable match ups, then no need to trade.  However, those weeks are the money makers (not the Championship week).  Why?  In the Championship, usually both teams get paid, so the most important weeks are the 1st round and Semis.

Byes:  Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Browns, and 49ers

Week 11 4 x 4

Waiver Wire Targets (60% Less)

  • Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle (19% Owned) – Will this huge performance be repeated?  He only got 12 carries, but turned that into 108 yards and a TD.  Hard not to speculate on that.
  • Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs (25% Owned) – He is the clear handcuff in KC, and may have stand alone value.  I’d pick him up and try to trade him to the Hunt owner.
  • Anthony Miller, WR, Bears (24% Owned) – He finally had his breakout game with 5 catches for 122 yards and a TD on 6 targets.
  • Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans (2% Owned) – He has scored in back to back games and has 3 teams ranking 20 or more against TE the rest of the way.  You could do worse.

Last Week:  Nick Mullens not so great here (250 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs), Mike Davis – right idea wrong back as rookie Rashaad Penny had a big game, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – disappointing outing with only 44 yards be patient, Nick Vannett – only had one catch, but it was a TD.

Trade Targets (Buy Low or Schedule Favorable)

  • Phillip Lindsay, RB, Broncos – The Rookie has outperformed the now injured Freeman, and more importantly, the Broncos have a great playoff schedule in Weeks 13, 14 and 15 – SF, CLE and OAK.
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals – Fitz is finally getting the targets he deserves.  In back to back outings, he has received double digit targets and 3 match ups against DSTs ranked 20th or higher against WR.  I think he goes out in a blaze of glory here.
  • Corey Davis, WR, Titans – Maybe a week too late on this one, but some people may not believe the production.  Davis was a Top 10 pick for a reason, and he is starting to show it.  Grab him before the price is too high.
  • Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons – Hooper is really coming on of late.  He is not a big name, so you should be able to pick him up for a low price.  However, his volume is since Week 5 he has produced over 40 yards every single week.  He got 10 catches in Week 10.

Last Week:  Dion Lewis was less than stellar in his revenge game (22 touches for just 68 yards), Mike Evans was a no show again (3 for 51 yards), Tyler Boyd started out good, but fizzled in Green’s absence with only 65 yards, Gronk continues to be on the shelf – maybe after the bye.

Sneak Starts (Not Typical Guys)

  • Alex Collins, RB, Ravens (FD $6000) – Confounding at best this season, Collins should be in line for a big game.  The Bengals have given up nearly 500 yards of offense in back to back outings.  Collins should get at least 1 TD here.
  • Tre’Quan Smith, WR, Saints (FD $4900) – Yes, he had 0 targets in the big win.  However, they are playing the Eagles who have 3 CBs down.  He should get some looks here.  He is worth a flier in DFS and a bye week fill in.
  • Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals (FD $5100) – Major disappointment at KC, and I’ve already told you I like Fitz here, too.  However, the rookie should get some looks against a bad Oakland defense.
  • Jonnu Smith, TE, Titans (FD $5300) – Colts are ranked 22nd against TEs this year.  This game should be more points than normal for TEN in keeping up with Luck.

Last Week:  Josh Adams is in a total RB by Committee (7 carries for 47 yards), Mike Davis was upstaged by the rookie (15 touches for 80 yards and a TD), Maurice Harris was just ok (5 catches for 52 yards), Nick Vannett did get the TD, but nothing else.

Guys to Avoid (Studs Who May Struggle)

  • Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers – Are you going to sit Rodgers?  No, but the Seattle defense is good and they will be back home fighting for the playoff lives on Thursday night.  Don’t play him in DFS.
  • Phillip Rivers, QB, Chargers – Rivers is great.  I love the guy, but the Chargers will need to win this game on the ground as Denver is Top 10 against the pass.
  • Mark Ingram, RB, Saints – After a big game at Cincy, I think Ingram comes crashing back to Earth here.  Yes, Zeke ate up this defense, but I would be surprised to see that from Ingram this week.
  • Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers – CB Jalen Ramsey has been running his mouth a lot, but without AJ Bouye I think JJ has a bigger game.  I’d limit expectations on AB.

Last Week:  Andrew Luck was still great against the Jags (285 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT), Kerryon Johnson scored 2x against the Bears (20 touches for 89 yards and 2 TDs), Joe Mixon did struggle as expected (13 touches for 85 yards), Davante Adams was good only 4 catches for 57 yards, but 2 big TDs.

Ok, good luck with your trades and pick ups.  It is the home stretch here.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.