Fantasy Football can really be maddening.  You spend weeks getting ready for the Draft.  Then, maintain your team by working the wire and maybe some trades to get the best possible group.  However, you cannot control last second trades that essentially nullify players and last minute scratches on guys who you count on every single week.  Well, that is how this game will drive you insane.  Let’s look at Week 7.

                                                                                                                                 (Kerryon My Wayward Son!!)

Week 7 Observations

  • Young RBs contribute in Week 7 – Lions’ rookie, RB Kerryon Johnson crushed it with 179 yards on 21 touches.  The Browns traded RB Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday for a 5th round pick to make way for rookie Nick Chubb.  Chubb answered the call with 18 carries for 80 yards and a TD.
  • Return of the Mack – Colts’ RB Marlon Mack got a full slate of touches in Week 7 and delivered to a huge day – 21 touches for 159 yards and 2 TDs.  I guess he is the feature back for Indy going forward.
  • Dalvin Who? – Vikings’ RB Latavius Murray is producing big with Dalvin Cook on the shelf yet again.  Murray got 17 touches and produced 83 yards, but 2 rushing TDs.  Remember the #1 ability is Availability!!
  • Kamara is Going to Be Fine –  After the Mark Ingram return, a lot of RB Alvin Kamara owners were worried about his volume in the Saints’ offense.  Well in a tough match up and a tight contest, Kamara got 17 carries to Ingram’s 12, and added 2 catches for a total of 75 yards and a rushing TD inside the 5 yard line.
  • Kareem Hunting Big – Early in the year, Hunt was the odd man out with the various weapons and QB Patrick Mahomes at the helm in KC.  Since Week 2, Hunt has scored rushing TDs in 4 of 5 games and a total of 8 TDs in those games.  He destroyed it again Sunday night in the route of the Bengals – 20 touches for 141 yards and 3 TDs!!  Hunt now has 9 TDs tied with Melvin Gordon.
  • Last Minute Changes that Hurt – The Hyde trade made him unavailable for owners on Sunday (me included).  His outlook is not great with Fournette returning after their bye.  TE Gronk didn’t make the trip to Chicago and was scratched on Saturday with a “locked up back.”  Well, that wasn’t on the report until Saturday.  RB Melvin Gordon had a mysterious hamstring injury that held him out of the London game, which probably cost you a zero unless you were up at 7:30 AM to get the news.  There isn’t much you can do with these except check your league site and Twitter feed to stay up to date.
  • Key Injuries:  Pats’ RB Sony Michel, Patriots, re-injured his knee which was an issue during training camp.  He will likely miss a couple weeks – doubtful for Week 8.  This may have come since our post last week, but the Falcons have placed RB Devonte Freeman on IR for his groin injury, so he will be out several weeks.  RB Lesean McCoy, Bills,  left the game Sunday with a concussion, so he may miss next week’s game against the Pats.  TE Geoff Swaim, Dallas, left the game on Sunday with knee injury, check reports, but Dallas in on bye in Week 8.  WR Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos, had a big game, but he ended up on the injury report with an ankle injury and is Questionable for the KC game.  Broncos’ RB Royce Freeman is also questionable with an ankle injury for Week 8 at KC.  Detroit RB Theo Riddick is questionable with a knee injury for Seattle game.  Texans’ WR Keke Coutee is doubtful with a hamstring in their Thursday night game against Houston.  Miami TE Mike Gesicki injured his shoulder and is questionable for the Thursday Night game against Houston. WR Albert Wilson of Miami is out for the year now, and WR Kenny Stills is banged up so check his status.  RB Marshawn Lynch of Raiders is now on IR with a groin injury.  RB Peyton Barber, Tampa Bay, is listed as questionable with undisclosed injury for Week 8 at Cincy.  WRs Jamison Crowder is doubtful with an ankle injury in Week 8 and Paul Richardson is questionable with a shoulder.

Managing Through the Bye Weeks

The bye weeks have begun, but over the next few weeks there will be at least 4 teams off (like last week) and in some weeks 6 teams (Weeks 9 and 11).  Here are some rules to follow for bye weeks:

  • Plan Ahead – Hopefully, you followed my advice and are charting your team on an Excel sheet with the schedule listed out.  Then, you can see exactly when you will need to pick up extra bodies in those huge bye weeks.  If you have a situation where your depth cannot get you through, then pick up a guy a week before the week you need them.  That way you will not be competing with everyone else that week.
  • Drop 2nd Defenses/Kickers – If you have a 2nd DST or Kicker, then immediately drop them.  You are going to need that roster space to shuffle your starters out of the lineup to get others to start or new guys you pick up off of the waiver wire.  Roster space at this point of the year is critical.  You can also drop any Kicker on their bye.  There is no must keep Kicker.  For DST, the only one to maybe keep is the Rams, but I would not be too wed to any defense either.
  • Drop 2nd QB, if you can – Once your starter or best QB completes their bye week, then there is no need to carry a 2nd QB.  It is time to get your team lean and mean, and you will need that extra roster spot for 1) a replacement guy for a bye week or 2) that upside guy to speculate on.
  • Lower Expectations – The bye weeks come at such a critical part of the season, since it is the stretch run to the playoffs.  However, without your top guys, it is going to be hard to replace their production.  You need to set realistic expectations for the replacements.
  • Waiver Wire Guys – Hopefully, you have quality depth to step in, but if not, then look to the wire. Guys on the wire can be very hit or miss, so it really depends on if you need level/floor production or home run/ceiling production. So, picking up guys off the wire always come with a risk/reward. I side on stability.  I do the same review of all players – I look for touches or targets for RBs and WRs.  For QBs, I’m looking at the match up and if throwing attempts will be high.  DSTs is a pure match up decision.  Play against turnover prone QBs and pick DSTs that sack the QB a lot.  Kickers should be picked up based on the Team Total in the game.  You want Kickers in high scoring games.

With these simple rules, you should survive easily.  Don’t beat yourself up if you pick up the wrong guy or you have a down week.  Everyone struggles during this stretch.

Bye Weeks this week:  Falcons, Cowboys, Titans and Chargers

Week 8 – 4 x 4

Waiver Wire Targets (60% Owned or Less)

  • Doug Martin/Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders (38%/30%) – Now, with Marshawn Lynch on IR, it is difficult to figure out who will get the carries and ball a lot.  I would say that in Standard leagues, you would pick up Martin.  In PPR leagues, then you would go with Richard.  The Colts/Raiders game should have some scoring.
  • Ronald Jones, RB, Bucs (29%) – I think it is time to speculate on Jones.  He has a few things going for him.  1) He is done with his bye week.  2) Peyton Barber is now injured a bit, which should get him more touches and 3) he actually produced a TD in Week 7.  He was a 1st round pick, so the Bucs should see what he can do now.
  • Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos – The Broncos are expected to trade Demaryius Thomas opening the door for more playing time for their young WRs.  Sutton is the top guy, as a 2nd round rookie with size and speed.  He is a must add now.
  • Tre’Quan Smith, WR, Saints – With Tedd Ginn injured, Smith shined on MNF prior to the Saints bye week.  He is a bit of boom/bust player, but even against Baltimore he received 6 targets for 44 yards and has the deep speed for a big play at any time.  He is worth an add playing with Brees.

Last week’s guys:  CJ Beathard did not perform well against the Rams – a disappointing outing but should bounce back against AZ.  Theo Riddick got hurt and Kerryon Johnson took over that backfield.  Taylor Gabriel was a no show against the Pats – he may have some upside still, but not last week.  Dallas DST was less than stellar against WAS – look for a rebound after the bye.

Trade Targets (Buy Lows)

  • Alex Collins, RB, Ravens – I would buy low on Collins now.  They have some great match ups after their bye, and despite the lack of production, Collins is still getting mid-teens touches each week.
  • Kenyon Drake, RB, Dolphins – Coach Adam Gase loves Frank Gore, but Drake is more dynamic.  He is starting to produce with the touches he is getting (about 10 per game).  I have to believe Gase will utilize Drake more going forward and the price is very low now.
  • Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks – Baldwin has been injured most of the year, but after the bye, I expect him to be at his best going forward.  The Seahawks’ offense has taken off from mid-October and on each of the past 2 years, so look for Baldwin to start getting hot.
  • Josh Gordon, WR, Pats – I can’t believe I’m writing this, but Gordon is a buy candidate.  I don’t trust the Gronk injury, and it seems like Brady trust Gordon especially down the field.  He is going to have some big games (he had 100 yards on Sunday).  If Gronk stays sidelined, then Gordon’s red zone looks are going to go way up.

Last Week:  Marlon Mack dominated as noted above – he is too expensive now.  Aaron Jones should be good after the GB bye.  Jarvis Landry produced big against Tampa last week with 10 catches for 97 yards and a TD – expect more of that going forward.  Stefon Diggs was terrible again – 8 catches for 27 yards?  Awful.  Still a buy low, but he is going to my bench until further notice.

Sneaky Starts (Not Your Typical Starters This Week)

  • Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals – After a terrible outing in KC in prime time, Dalton should bounce back at home against that poor Tampa defense.  I expect him to chuck it up quite a bit.
  • Nick Chubb, RB, Browns – There is nothing sneak about this, as Chubb just needed to be mentioned again.  He will get the lions share of the carries, goal line work and some catches with Carlos Hyde getting shipped out.  Start Chubb in all formats against division rivals – Steelers.
  • Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos – I’m taking a shot on Sutton right out of the gates here at KC.  The Chiefs will run out to a lead and Keenum is going to have to chuck it.  The KC defense is improving but still gave up over 100 yards to AJ Green.  Sutton can do a lot of damage here.
  • Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers – You are probably already starting him given the state of TE today, but Graham should have a good game against the Rams who will be ahead and have struggled against TEs all season.

Last Week:  CJ Beathard – ugh, he wasn’t good.  Taylor Gabriel – same.  Sterling Shephard – finally a good call, 5 catches for 167 yards – not bad.  David Njoku – 4 catches for 52 yards and a TD – great day for a TE this year.

Guys to Avoid (Usual Starters that will Struggle)

  • Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions – After a monster performance, I expect him to struggle against a very good Seahawks defense this week.
  • Christian McCaffery, RB, Panthers – McCaffery has struggled in back to back outings.  He is going to face a very tough Ravens defense that stuffed Ingram and limited Kamara relatively.  I’d sit McCaffery if I had other options.
  • Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers – Brown has been great of late, but he struggled in Week 1 against the rookie, CB Denzel Ward.  I would lower expectations on Brown this week.
  • Michael Thomas, WR, Saints – Thomas had a solid game against a tough defense in Baltimore, but I think Minnesota will force Brees to check down a lot in this game to Kamara and other targets.  Probably cant’ bench him, but expect less production than last week.

Last Week:  Cam Newton, of course, did what Cam does, he only threw for 269 yards (mostly in the 4th Quarter) and overcame a 17 point deficit with 2 TDs and another 49 rushing yards – he is bullet proof.  Andrew Luck only threw for 150 yards, but 4 TDs!!  He is on fire.  Sony Michel did struggle mainly because he was carted off the field early with an injury.  Mark Ingram did struggle with only 42 total yards on 14 touches.

Good luck this week.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.