NBA Preview – Can Anyone Beat the Ws?

(Your 2018-19 NBA Champs?)

It seemed like just yesterday that the Cavs were beaten again by the mighty Warriors last June.  That should tell you that the NBA season is waaaay too long.  Still, Tuesday, the NBA starts its season off, and only 8 months from now another champion will be crowned.  I’ll dig into each division with predictions, MVP candidates and the playoff teams followed by NBA futures to win the title.

Can Anyone Beat the Warriors?

The real question in the 2018-19 season is can anyone actually unseat these Warriors.  The Ws have now won 3 out of the last 4 titles.  After this past Championship, they have repeated and only lost a total of [] games since the acquisition of Kevin Durant.  I think that if the Warriors stay healthy, then no one can beat this team.  The Warriors roster remains fundamentally unchanged from last year at its core:  Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green all return.  The one “departure” was JaVale McGee and [] at Center.  However, the Ws took a chance on DeMarcus Cousins who was the best Center in the league prior to tearing his Achilles Tendon.  He will likely miss half of the season, but given the favorable contract, I think it was a good gamble.  They will fill the Center spot with Damian Jones and Kevon Looney and likely play small most of the time with 2nd year man, Jordan Bell.

The Warriors did lose some bench depth from last year in David West, Zaza Pachulia, Nick Young and Patrick McCaw.  However, they still have Shaun Livingston, Andre Iguodala, and added rugged shooting guard, Jacob Evans from Cincinnnati in the Draft.  Also, they added the always pesky Jonas Jerebko who made a name for himself for the Celtics in 2016-17 post season before going to the Utah Jazz last year.

To me, the only real threats to the Warriors are the Houston Rockets.  The Rockets were up 3-2 against the Ws in the Western Conference Finals.  Chris Paul being injured really hurt them in those final 2 games.  The Rockets with the core of James Harden, Chris Paul, Eric Gordon and Clint Capela.  The Rockets did add SF Carmelo Anthony to the mix, which I really don’t like.  However, he can shoot it and won’t need to carry the load.  I think Houston will miss defensive specialist Trevor Ariza, who was a capable shooter.  Finally, the PJ Tucker who played in the playoffs is essential to topple the mighty Warriors.  His toughness was noted in the series.  I do like the drafting of Purdue’s versatile Vincent Edwards, who hopefully will get more minutes as the season goes on.  Edwards along with Gerald Green plus the other Cincinnati draftee, Gary Clark, could make a good bench mob that may actually be better than the aging Warriors bench.  We will see.

I know Laker fans want to see Lebron take the team back to the NBA summit.  However, I cannot see that happening.  Lebron is a transcendent force, for sure, but the addition of older veterans like Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, and Michael Beasley may actually hurt the development of the younger core assembled already (Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram).  It will be interesting to see.  However, I can’t see the Lakers going deep in the playoffs with that bunch in the West.

So, that leaves the Eastern Conference contenders.  Boston is the clear favorite in the East.  However, there are 2 big question marks in PG Kyrie Irving’s health and whether Gordon Hayward will play at the level pre-injury.  The team flourished without those two in the playoffs behind the best coach, in my opinion, Brad Stevens.  SF Jayson Tatum was incredible and PF Jaylen Brown developed nicely.  Can all those pieces fit to be a team to challenge the Ws?  Sure, they can and probably will in the Finals, but the Ws are at their peak now.  Maybe in the 2019-20 season.

The only other team I like out of the East to have a shot is the Sixers.  Philly’s experiment started to come to fruition in 2017-18, but Boston knocked them out with relative ease in the playoffs.  There is no doubting the talent there – C Joel Embiid is smooth, PG Ben Simmons can be sublime, and SG Markelle Fultz is healthy now that core with a deep bench of talent and role guys plus athletic additions in the draft like SG Zhaire Smith from Texas Tech, PG Landry Shamet of Wichita State, and SG Shake Milton of SMU make this team deeper than most.  I still think unless Simmons improved his jump shot and Fultz is really ready for the NBA, they are a year or two away from contending.

So, that leaves another Warriors’ title and 3-peat on the horizon.  Believe me, I don’t want to see that.  I hate knowing who the winner will be in October, but prove me wrong!

Division Break Down – Predictions (Projected Seeding and Bovada NBA Championship Futures)

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

1 – Celtics – (1 Seed +500) should be 1 Seed in the East, but Sixers can take them if at their potential.

2 – Sixers (2 Seed +1600) – Should be 3 seed or better in the East, but may lack the maturity for an 82 game season.

3 – Toronto (4 Seed +1400) – With Kawhi Leonard, they have a shot to be better than this prediction, but they lack something –

4 – Nets (+45000) – This will be a battle for the cellar between 2 franchises still lost.  Nets may be slightly better on paper, but that’s not saying much.

5 – Knicks (+40000) – I can’t see much here.  Rookie SG Kevin Knox could be good complement to Porzingas, but not enough horses to make a difference.

Central Division

1 – Bucks (3 Seed +10000) – The Greek Freak will be incredible, but can the rest of the team follow his development.  A lot of pieces that need to fit to challenge Celtics, but they should win a lot of games.

2 – Pacers (6 Seed +12500) – I like this team a lot, but losing the volatile Stephenson will actually hurt come playoff time.  Great core and Oladipo is a star now.  Maybe will surprise someone in the 1st round this year.

3 – Pistons (+30000) – At some point this team will play to its potential, but not in this season.  C Andre Drummond will likely lead the league in rebounding, but without a 2015 Blake Griffin, I can’t see this team in the playoffs.

4 – Bulls (+30000) – The Bulls aren’t good, but as my team, I can’t put them at the bottom of the list.  Another year of rebuilding around the Hoi-ball system will leave us in Chicago wanting more.  Please show me they were right to pass on SG Michael Porter to take PF Wendell Carter.

5 – Cavs (+45000) – Hope the Cleveland faithful got the most out of the past few years because it is going to be a playoff drought for a while now.  The Lebron departure will sting and besides rookie PG Collin Sexton who else excites you on this roster?

Southeast Division

1 – Wizards (4 Seed +10000) – Is this the year the Wiz put it all together?  Probably not, but they do have the core to win a lot of games.  PG John Wall, SG Bradley Beal with C Dwight Howard are all good players.  I just don’t see them beating the Celts or Sixers.

2 – Hornets (7 Seed +30000) – If only Charlotte could play all their PGs at once, they have a slew of them in Kemba Walker, Devonte Graham (rookie from Kansas), and veteran Tony Parker.  I like the youth on this team with rookie SF Miles Bridges, SG Dwayne Bacon, SG Malik Monk and F Zach Smith, but can they gel together to make a run?  I think they will make the playoffs, but not much more.

3 – Heat (8 Seed +30000) – Coach Erik Spoelstra is very under-rated.  He will get this team to the playoffs one way or another despite the aging Dwayne Wade, the overpaid Hassan Whiteside and a cast of characters.  They lack the star power to compete in April and May, however.

4 – Magic (+45000) – Ho hum, this team is not really noteworthy.  They have a few guys of interest in PF Aaron Gordon and now rookie C Mo Bamba, but that’s just not enough.

5 – Hawks (+40000) – This could be the league’s worst team this year.  Maybe rookie PG Trae Young will prove me wrong and be the next Steph Curry, but please tell him to work on that hairline.

Western Conference

Pacific Division

1 – Warriors (1 Seed -195) – Clearly the best team, maybe injuries derail them more than other teams.

2 – Lakers (4 Seed +1000) – Lebron will get this bunch to the playoffs, but not sure how far.  Like I mentioned, the lack of chemistry and conflicting development will ultimately hurt this team.

3 – Kings (+50000) – The Kings keep getting younger in a league that needs mid-level guys and veterans to win. I’m sure the fans long for those early 2000s teams that were contenders. Rookie Marvin Bagley can play now along with Boganovic, and maybe PG De’Aaron Fox improved his jumper. I like them more than the Clips for sure.

4 – Clippers (+25000) – Does anyone remember when the Clippers were considered a top team?  That seems like a decade ago, but the fall has been swift.  No playoffs again, in a relatively weak division.  No real roster worthy guys from what I can see.

5 – Suns (+40000) – Another really young team without a lot of complementary pieces. I like the addition of Ariza from Houston to give them some leadership, but it will be in the hands of SG Devin Booker, SF Josh Jackson and #1 pick Deandre Ayton to get out of the cellar.

Southwest Division

1 – Rockets (2 Seed +850) – To me the only team that can beat the Champs.  Harden needs to find a program to make sure he is fresh come May, as he has cratered in back to back playoff campaigns despite great regular seasons.

2 – Pelicans (5 Seed +12500)  – The best player to not have won an MVP yet is PF Anthony Davis.  He is a generational talent.  His health will determine how far this team goes.  I don’t love the acquisitions of Julius Randle and Jahlil Okafor last year, but maybe they will bring toughness.  I like when this team runs with PG Jrue Holiday and SF Nikola Mirotic.  They can score with the best of them.

3 – Spurs (+8000) – San Antonio will rely on the new nucleus of PG Lamarcus Aldridge and now Demar DeRozan from Toronto should do what they did last year.  However, the Kawhi loss really limits their ability to compete for the Conference.  They will be on the fringe of the playoffs again.  I have them missing this year, but Coach Pop probably won’t let that happen.

4 – Mavericks (+25000) – The glory days of the Mavs are gone.  Dirk Nowitzki is 40 and it should be his last season.  The younger Mavs like rookie Luka Doncic and PG Dennis Smith Jr. need to be the leaders going forward.

5 – Grizzlies (+50000) – The Griz added a guy I love in the draft in Jevon Carter a tough PG from West Virginia, but the C Marc Gasol and PG Mike Conley team is not ready to compete with the big boys again this year.  Probably better than my prediction, but not better than an 8 seed in the playoffs.

Northwest Division

1 – Jazz (3 Seed +7500) – The 2nd year phenom, Donovan Mitchell should just get better along with C Rudy Gobert and a great cast.  I like them to challenge anyone except for the Warriors this year.

2 – Thunder (6 Seed +3000) – OKC will start slow with PG Russell Westbrook recovering from surgery.  However, I think this team is actually better without Carmelo Anthony.  SF Paul George along with C Steven Adams will hold down the fort in his absence.

3 – Blazers (7 Seed +15000) – Portland in the East would be a Top 3 team this year, but in the loaded West they hover around the bottom 2 slots of the playoffs.  The tandem of PG Damian Lilliard and SG CJ McCollum are lethal, plus do not underestimate the emotion of playing for recently deceased owner, Paul Allen.  This team will compete every night.

4 – Nuggets (8 Seed +12500) – This is a young and dangerous team.  C Nikola Jokic along with PG Jamal Murray make up the backbone of this team.  However the addition of rookie Michael Porter to go with SG Gary Harris and Will Barton should given them a very versatile lineup.

5 – Timberwolves (+15000) – I’m not sure what is going on in Minnesota, but a playoff team a year ago is in disarray with SG Jimmy Butler demanding to be traded.  I don’t like it and see an implosion on the horizon.  Maybe they surprise me, but I’m not trusting this bunch.

MVP Candidates:

1 – Lebron James (probably overdue in past 3 seasons)

2 – Anthony Davis (will be 2nd in voting)

3 – Kevin Durant (hard to win on that team)

4 – James Harden (just because)

5 – Donovan Mitchell (If Jazz get to 2 seed, then it may be his year)

Playoff Predictions:

East

1st Round

1 – Boston over 8 – Miami

2 – Philly over 7 – Charlotte

3 – Milwaukee over 6 – Indiana

4 – Toronto over 5 – Washington

Semis

1 – Boston over 5 – Toronto

2 – Philly over 3- Milwaukee

Eastern Conference Finals

1- Boston over 2 – Philly (should be a great one)

West

1st Round

1 – Golden State over 8 – Denver

2 – Houston over 7 – Portland

3 – Utah over 6 – Oklahoma City

5 – New Orleans over 4 – Lakers (yeah, I know, but I like the Pelicans)

Semis

1 – Golden State over 5 – New Orleans (same as last year)

2 – Houston over 3 – Utah (same as last year)

Western Conference Finals

1 – Golden State over 2 – Houston (hopefully 7 games again)

NBA Finals

1 – Golden State over 1 – Boston in 5 games

Alright, the season is underway.  I’ll check back in at the 1/4 mark for updates.

Wegs