Fantasy can be maddening.  I mean in one of my leagues I’m the 2nd leading scorer, but I’m 2-4.  I continue to score a ton of points, but I face off against that team that goes off.  In fact, I was up like 25 points going into the 4th quarter of the Sunday Night game, but after the Patriots decided not to cover Tyreke Hill and Gronk had 2 big plays late, I trailed by 12 just like that.  All, I can say is that you need to stick to your process.  Hopefully, over the course of the season, those peaks will even out.  The scoring in the league and fantasy scoring is at an all time high.

                                                                                                                                 (Adam Thielen – Dude is a baller.)

Week 6 Observations:

  • Todd Gurley Deserving #1 – For most, Gurley was not only the RB1, but he was the 1st overall pick in a consensus of ranks.  Well, for once, that is correct.  Gurley has scored 11 TDs so far, plus he now leads the league in rushing with 623 yards (208 of them on Sunday against the Broncos).  Add 21 receptions for 247 yards, and that gives you the #1 non-QB in Fantasy.  LA Rams are a great offense, and Gurley is the centerpiece a la, Marshall Faulk.
  • Hooked on a Thielen – The Vikings’ WR Adam Thielen is that story we need in the NFL.  An undrafted free agent who had to play on the practice squad before he hit it big.  He was great last year, but this year he has 100 yards or more receiving in 6 straight games to start the season (an NFL first).  He also has 4 TDs, and if it wasn’t for Tyreke Hill’s crazy 4th Quarter, then he would be the #1 WR in fantasy.  QB Kirk Cousins loves this dude, and his production should continue.
  • Over the Hill – So, the Chiefs’ Tyreke Hill killed me, but hopefully, he helped you.  This guy scored 3 TDs in Week 1, and was kinda lackluster until the 2nd half Sunday Night.  However, SNF showed why he has to be in your lineup every week.  Hill is the classic Ceiling Player we discussed in the pre-season.  However, he is on a top NFL offense with a guy who can actually hit him in stride in Mahomes.  So, start Hill every single time and live with the ups and downs.
  • Only 1 Defense to Fear – After Sunday, you can see that besides the Ravens’ who are #1 in Defense, no other defense should be feared.  The Chicago Bears got killed with short passes and big plays, as did the Jags’ defense who couldn’t stop WR Cole Beasley.  The Rams’ injuries clearly have made them mortal.  The Seahawks are pretty good, but they haven’t played anybody really and gave up a ton against the Rams.  So, in this NFL, there are no Negative defensive match ups.
  • Start Your Steelers – The Steelers have figured it out.  They are finally using RB James Connor like Le’Veon Bell.  Connor continues to crush it both on the ground and through the air, which just opens up the offense for both WR Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster (who both had 100 yards and a TD).  So, start Big Ben and these 3 guys with confidence.
  • Melvin MVP-lite – If Gurley wasn’t just crushing it, then everyone would be talking about RB Melvin Gordon.  Gordon scored 3 more TDs, which makes it 9 for the year, and he is 4th in total yards.  I’m going to keep talking about this guy until further notice.
  • Key Injuries – RB Devonta Freeman (Atlanta) continues to be out with a set back last week (he is out until further notice), WR Calvin Ridley (Atlanta) hurt his ankle – he’s questionable, Mohamed Sanu (Atlanta) also hurt his hip, check reports, QB Josh Allen (Bills) injured his elbow (not that you started him, but he’s out), QB Baker Mayfield (Browns) is questionable with an ankle for Week 7, WR TY Hilton (Colts) hamstring continues to keep him out of the lineup, TE Niles Paul (Jags) is out on IR with a knee injury – no TE in Jacksonville now, WR Cooper Kupp (Rams) hurt his knee and is at best questionable for Week 7, QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami) didn’t play in Week 6 with a shoulder but Osweiler played well, RB Dalvin Cook (Vikings) still can’t get on the field with hamstring, WR Amari Cooper (Raiders) left Week 7 with a concussion, TE Nick Vannett (Seahawks) is questionable with a back injury, Redskins had a big day without these guys in Week 6, but for Week 7:  RB Chris Thompson questionable with ribs and WR Jamison Crowder questionable with ankle.

Week 7 – 4 x 4

Waiver Wire Pick Ups (60% Owned or Less)

  • CJ Beathard, QB, 49ers (21% Owned) – I’ve beaten this guy up on my podcast, but he is a quality bye week fill in, if you need someone.  CJ does a few things well when it comes to fantasy.  1) He runs the ball.  He already has a rushing TD.  2) He keeps throwing, which is more the offense, despite throwing 5 INTs through 3 games, he continues to chuck it with 2 Passing TDs in each game.  You could do worse, and against the Rams they will be trailing (again).
  • Theo Riddick, RB, Lions (0% Owned) – Riddick should get plenty of opportunities with Johnson a bit dinged up, and the Dolphins struggle against pass catching RBs – like Tarik Cohen in Week 6.  He can fill in for your injured guys, definitely in PPR, but even in Standard if you are desperate.
  • Taylor Gabriel, WR, Bears (26% Owned) – With back to back 100 yard games, Gabriel is the legit deep threat for the Bears offense.  I expect him to run Tyreke Hill routes against the Patriots this week.
  • Dallas Cowboys, DST (42% Owned) – I don’t usually talk about DSTs, as you can get away with most defenses.  However, the Cowboys DST is legit.  They are 13th at the position, but I like that they have consistency due to their pass rush.  Now, they face the Redskins in Week 7 (a decent match up) and then a bye, so you would likely drop them after Week 7.  However, I would make a play for them as the season goes on past their bye for sure.

Last Week:  RB Wendell Smallwood of Eagles was the leading rusher with 18 carries for 51 yards (just ok), RB Alfred Blue of Texans 9 touches for 43 yards, as Miller did end up playing, RB Alfred Morris of 49ers was a no factor (Raheem Mostert got 12 carries for 87 yards and Breida was back) and WR Mohamed Sanu of Falcons had 2 receptions for 46 yards and a TD but left with an injury missing out on more production.

Trade Targets (Buy Low Targets)

  • Marlon Mack, RB, Colts – Mack was out for the 4 of the first 5 games, but he is clearly their lead back when healthy.  He got 12 carries for 89 yards, so he has more touches coming.  The Colts will likely trail in a lot of games, but he still should be involved, despite Nyheim Hynes involvement in the passing game.
  • Aaron Jones, RB, Packers – So, disclaimer, Coach Mike McCarthy is terrible.  One of the league’s worst, but at some point, he has to see that Aaron Jones is clearly the best RB in Green Bay.  He was fast and quick Monday Night.  Yet, he inexplicably played both Montgomery and Williams over him.  I’d try to pick Jones up on the cheap.
  • Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns – Landry has been disappointing in the past 2 games with only 7 catches for 80 yards combined.  However, he still continues to get the targets in this offense.  With Higgins hurt, that should continue with concentrated targets plus the Browns schedule gets a lot easier TB, PIT, KC and ATL in the next 4 games – all struggling to stop the pass.
  • Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings – QB Kirk Cousins has a man crush on Adam Thielen, but defense will slowly adjust to this.  Diggs is very talented, and he still is producing like a WR2.  I think from here on out, he will outproduce Thielen (that’s right, bold prediction).

Last Week:  Cam Newton, QB, Panthers was Cam with 275 yards passing 2 TDs, 1 INT and 43 rushing yards, RB Christian McCaffery, Panthers was just ok 15 touches for 66 yards in the loss, RB, Joe Mixon, Bengals had 16 touches for 84 yards and a TD, WR, Julio Jones, Falcons still didn’t score a TD, but he had 10 receptions for 143 yards (and 2nd in the league in receiving yards).

Sneaky Starts (Unlikely Starters and Daily Plays)

  • CJ Beathard, QB, 49ers (FD – $6400) – See above on this stats.  The 49ers will be playing at home, and with WR Marquis Goodwin back, Beathard has plenty of upside.  Great low cost Daily QB.
  • Taylor Gabriel, WR, Bears (FD – $5900) – The Pats looked very susceptible to deep speed on Sunday Night.  I expect Gabriel to get at least 4 deep targets in this game on Sunday.  If he hits on 2, then you are looking at another 100 yards.
  •  Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants (FD – $6300) – The Falcons have really struggled against all WRs, but especially #2 WRs on teams.  This should be another shoot out on Monday night, and Eli may actually be worth a start, too.
  • David Njoku, TE, Browns (FD – $5700) – The Bucs have been destroyed by TEs in the past few games – in the past 3 games TEs have gone for almost 90 yards and a TD.  Njoku should be the next in line.

Last Week:  Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns was not good for only 238 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs, RB Peyton Barber, Bucs 17 touches for 106 and a TD, WR, Chris Hogan, Patriots was solid, but not great with 4 catches for 78 yards (I expected more) and TE, Eric Ebron, Colts led the Colts in receiving with 4 catches for 71 yards and a TD.

Guys to Avoid (Studs to Bench, if Necessary)

  • Cam Newton, QB, Panthers – Cam is typically bullet proof with his rushing, but I don’t like this match up against the Eagles.  Panthers have been bad on the road, and the Eagles can be beat deep, but who will be that guy for Cam.  That front line of the Eagles is going to pummel him this week.
  • Andrew Luck, QB, Colts – Luck’s shoulder must be ok, as he has chucked it over 50 times for 3 straight weeks.  Now, most of that production has come in catch up efforts.  The Bills are not going to run away from the Colts.  They are expected to start Derek Anderson or Peterman (yikes!).  So, this could be one sided and a better game to go with someone in a higher total game.
  • Sony Michel, RB, Patriots – I love this guy, and will likely start him myself, but the Bears are not going to be run on this Sunday at home.  Gore gashed them last week in that heat.  It’s going to be 45 degrees in Chicago Sunday, and the Bears should find their bite against the run again.  Plus, Michel is not really contributing in the passing game.
  • Mark Ingram, RB, Saints – Ingram looked great coming back from suspension in Week 5, but the Ravens are the only legit defense.  Look at other options if you can.

Last Week:  QB, Kirk Cousins, Vikings didn’t get it done through the air with 233 yards passing, 1 TD and 1 INT, but did get a rushing TD to save his day, RB, Zeke Elliott, Cowboys was great against the struggling Jags with 25 touches for 117 yards and 1 TD, WR, Keenan Allen, Chargers was just ok with 4 catches for 62 yards and WR, Deandre Hopkins, Texans scored early to really make his day, as he was held to 5 catches and 63 yards besides.

Alright, check your byes with 4 teams out:  Packers, Seahawks, Raiders and Steelers.

Good luck.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.