The NFL is wild.  In addition to the gambling podcast, Side Action, I participate in 2 ATS or Against the Spread pools.  Well, to date the favorites have won just 44.87% of the games, which is pretty low.  On average over the course of time, favorites win 50% of their games.  Well, 5% may not seem like much, but through 5 games, that’s a full 4 games.  If you extrapolate that over the full season, then that is 13 full games below .500 which is astounding.  Of course, I’ve been awful in both pools, but let’s leave that for another post.  This week I’ll recap the big happenings in the league and preview the epic match up along with other key contests.

                                                                                                         (The NFL All-Time Passing Leader)

Week 5 in Review:

  • Commander and Chiefs – The big game this week was the showdown of to AFC teams – Kansas City and the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Well, the Jags defense was no match for the inventive offense of the Chiefs.  Andy Reid’s team had the Jags chasing their tails all day long.  QB Patrick Mahomes actually threw 2 INTs in the game, but the Jags had no shot and were down 20-0 at the half.  KC has now led their opponents by a combined 103-56 at the half through 5 games.  Chiefs stay undefeated at 5-0.  The Chiefs get another big test this week (more on that later).
  • Patriots Back to Form – TB12 and the gang are doing what they do.  After falling to 1-2 through 3 games, the Pats have rolled in 2 straight weeks.  With WR Julian Edelman back in the fold, this time Brady broke 300 yards passing for the 2nd time this year and the Patriots now sit 9th in Points Per Game and also in Points Against.  Pats are now 3-2.  Let’s see how they do this week.
  • Steelers Got Key Win – In the battle for underperforming teams, the Steelers beat the Falcons handily behind a big game from James Connor, Big Ben and Antonio Brown.  The Steelers were in danger of losing 3 straight at Hines Field and 4 straight including the playoff loss last year.  The key was the Steeler defense that limited the Falcons high flying offense to just 17 points.  Atlanta had scored 31 or more in 3 straight.  Now at 2-2-1, the Steelers sit 2 games back in the win column and will face the league leader in Week 6.
  • LA Rams Get Past A Scare – The Seahawks played the Rams toe to toe for 4 quarters.  Russell Wilson threw 3 TD passes, and led in the 4th quarter, but Jared Goff led his team to 2 scoring drives in the 4th and got the critical 4th and 1 QB sneak to ice the game.  Rams move to 5-0.
  • Browns Win on Sunday – The Browns did have a win this season, but they got their first win on a Sunday in over a season.  It took their 3rd OT game to do it, but they were able to outlast the Ravens at home.  QB Baker Mayfield went for over 300 yards, but more importantly the defense kept Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco and the offense out of the end zone all day.  At 2-2-1, can they win 2 in a row?
  • Vikings Bounce Back – After getting embarrassed in January last year in Philly, the Vikings went into Eagle country and got a huge win.  The Defense which had been lackluster in the past 3 weeks was back to its old ways.  Philly struggled to run the ball and have lost RB Jay Ajayi for the year.  Luckily for the Eagles, their division is poor.  The Vikes are now at 2-2-1 and can edge closer to the division lead with another win.
  • Drew Brees Excellence – I already mentioned this in the Fantasy Football post, but Drew Brees becomes the all time NFL passing leader breaking 72,000 yards.  He will likely pass 500 TDs after their bye.  He is a class act and a 1st ballot Hall of Famer.

Week 6 Preview – Collisional Course in AFC

  • KC goes to Foxboro – The schedule makers got this right this year.  Week 2, you had the Pats visit the Jags for an AFC Championship rematch.  Then, in Week 5, the Jags visited the red hot Chiefs.  Now, the Chiefs visit the Pats in Foxboro.  It is a virtual round robin tournament, which I greatly appreciate.  QB Patrick Mahomes continues to pass every test.  However, the trip to New England is different than the Jags at home.  Tommy Brady will not throw 4 picks like Blake Bortles did last week.  The Chiefs will have to play a complete game to beat the now streaking Patriots.  On paper, this game is a dead heat.  Both teams are in the Top 10 in PPG, but NE has creeped into the top 10 in PPG Against.  The Chiefs boast a +5 Turnover Margin, which they have turned into scores often enough.  Don’t expect to see TB12 throw picks at home, but that NE defense better be ready for this varied attack.  This should be the best game of the 1st half of the season for sure.  Sunday Night Football.
  • Steelers and Bengals Part 98 – The Bengals never get respect and for good reason, they rarely win playoff games.  However, with QB Dalton and company off to a hot start at 4-1, they lead the AFC North.  The Steelers have been struggling until this past Sunday when they looked like the team we all expected.  These two teams genuinely hate each other.  The playoff game in 2017 (2016 season) in Cincy which had several players from both sides carted off and a costly late penalty by Bengal bad boy, Vontaze Burfict was one for the ages.  Burfict is back from suspension and this game should be a classic AFC North slugfest with some big plays mixed in.  1 PM Start in Cincinnati.

Bye Weeks:  Lions and Saints

NFL Index – Wegs Style

So, for the past 3 seasons, I’ve created this index for the playoffs to help me pick in NFL Playoff pools.  I thought I would start doing it now every week (if I have time) to provide to the readers.  You can consider the Index a Power Ranking of sorts based on statistics.  Here is how I do it:

I pick the 6 major categories for each team:  Yards/Game, Points/Game, Yards Against/Game, Points Against/Game, Scoring Differential, and Turnover Margin.  For each category, each team is ranked 1-32.  Then, I use the Cumulative Ranking based on the 6 categories to come up with the final listing.  Obviously, the best teams are at the top, but sometimes teams get lucky (look at the Miami Dolphins).  Teams get wins that really they shouldn’t have gotten, and the theory is over the course of the season a team who is not high in the Index will eventually regress to their level in Wins and Losses, as well.  As I may have written early on, the Playoff Index is over 70% accurate in predicting the outcomes of games.

Here is the Index Form:

NFL Index – Week 6

Top 5 Teams Per Index:

  1. LA Rams – no surprise here.  They are the best team in Football.
  2. Chicago Bears – A little surprising, but they boast the #2 Defense in Football by the metrics.
  3. Baltimore Ravens – They are the #1 Scoring Defense in Football, and that carries them here.
  4. KC Chiefs – again no surprise, besides the #2 Scoring Offense, they are 4th in TO margin
  5. LA Chargers – The Chargers are a darling for the Index, but can they win the big game or even at CLE in Week 6.

(Incidentally, NE is 6th).

Bottom 5 Teams Per Index:

  • 28th – Buffalo – Bills are terrible on Offense and TO Margin, but decent on Defense.
  • 29th – NY Giants – Only 1 category in the Top 15, and that is Yards Against.
  • 30th – Arizona – Again, no shock here.  Poor in every area, but Points Against at 11th.
  • 31st – Denver – 12th in Yards/Game, but 23rd or worse in every other category including Points per Game.  Gotta finish drives.
  • 32nd – Oakland – By the Index, Oakland is the worst.  Again #6 in Yards/Game, but 28th or worse in Yards Against, Points Against, Differential and TO Margin.

Enjoy Week 6!!

Wegs

 

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.