Fantasy Football – Week 5 Review – Who Can You Trust? – Week 6 4 x 4

The NFL is so fun because it is virtually unpredictable.  The results of the games were baffling, but even more so, you had a variety of performers that came out of nowhere – like very week.  So, in addition to the reviewing of Week 5, I’ll take a crack at looking at players and maybe teams you can trust for the next 3-4 weeks.

                                                                                                                                             Le’Veon Who?

Week 5 Observations

• Drew Brees Is The Man – Drew has been a Fantasy God for years, so he now is the NFL passing leader breaking Peyton Manning’s yardage record (over 72,000 – wow!).  He is also at 499 TDs in his career just one behind Tom Brady, 9 behind Brett Favre and 40 behind Manning.  Brees may not get to Manning, especially this year, but he will likely pass Favre and duel with Brady all season.  Congrats, Drew!
• Kansas City Unstoppable – In the rain against the #1 defense, the Chiefs racked up 424 yards total including over 300 yards passing for the first time in 15 games against the Jags defense.  The Chiefs continue to keep all defenses off balance and it benefits – Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce.  Now, Mahomes did not dazzle with no TD passes and 2 INTs, but he ran one in.
• Steelers Went Back to the Run – The Steelers finally decided to feed Connor again after only 9 carries last week.  When, they do, the entire offense is better.  Connor got 21 carries for 110 yards with 2 TDs (he also caught 4 balls for 75 yards).  You cannot replace Le’Veon Bell, but using Connor the same way opens the field up for Antonio Brown down the field who finally returned to form with 6 for 101 yards and 2 TDs.  That is the Steeler offense we expected.  I would expect more of the same against Cincinnati this week.
• Rams Are In Shoot Outs – The Rams defense is not what it started out to be, so their offense is going to score, we know that.  However, start your guys against them until further notice.  Russell Wilson threw for under 200 yards, but had 3 TDs, Chris Carson and Mike Davis ran for 184 yards, so the Rams can be had on defense.
• Aaron Rodgers Does Not Need All His WRs – Rodgers didn’t have Cobb or Allison, and a supposed gimpy Davante Adams (who completely went off – 9 catches for 140 and 1 TD).  The Packers were trailing all game, so ARod was chucking it every play (52 pass attempts).  However, the defense is not great, and Rodgers needs to throw and he can get his with Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
• Giants Finding Playmakers – The Giants almost won yesterday because they got the ball to Odell and Saquon.  Eli Manning is not good, and I would consider a change at QB.  However, getting 14 targets to Beckham for 8 catches, 131 yards and a TD (plus a 57 yard TD pass to Barkley – https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=odell+beckham+pass+play&view=detail&mid=FD47646D3A7CC655165AFD47646D3A7CC655165A&FORM=VIRE).  Barkley turned 19 touches into 129 yards and 2 TDs, including the near game winning play.  Hopefully Coach Pat Shurmur learns the lesson to win with your guys and not spreading the ball around too much.
• Melvin Gordon Is Too Underrated – Gordon flew under the radar at the Draft after an excellent season.  Through 5 games, he is 3rd in scoring.  He is catching 4 passes and 15 carries per game at least for over 100 yards and a TD or more.  He is legit.  As long as he stays healthy, he will finish in the Top 5 at RB this year.
• Philly’s Offense is Not 2017 Level – I’m not sure what is going on in Philly.  Maybe the loss of OC Frank Reich and QB Coach DiFilippo is showing.  Philly is not running the ball like last year.  In 2017, the Eagles broke 100 yards rushing in 12 of 16 games – over 150 yards 5 of 16. This year, they have 3 out of 5 games over 100 yards and over 150 just once. Carson Wentz is having TD regression which is understandable since he was way too efficient last year.  Maybe they will turn it around, but Philly is not the lights out unit of 2017.
• Key Injuries – RB Jay Ajayi tore his ACL and is out for the year for the Eagles, QB Matt Ryan for Falcons has an undisclosed injury and is questionable for Week 6, RB Gio Bernard for Bengals is now out a few weeks with MCL strain (since last post), RB Kerryon Johnson of Lions has an injured ankle and listed as questionable for Week 6, RB Lamar Miller of Texans was knocked out with a chest injury and is questionable next week, WR TY Hilton of Colts is still listed as questionable with a hamstring, RB Leonard Fournette of Jags didn’t play and is also questionable with hamstring, WRs Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp of the Rams both are in the concussion protocol, RB Dalvin Cook of Vikings did not play and will likely be questionable for Week 6 with hamstring, Jags lose RB Corey Grant (foot) and TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (stomach) to IR, RB Saquon Barkley came up as questionable after the game for the Giants with a back issue, TE George Kittle listed as questionable for the 49ers with a knee injury and Matt Breida left the game with an ankle injury also questionable for Week 6.

Who Can You Trust?

So, at this point of the season, you have 5 data points available.  In statistics, that is not a significant sample, but in Fantasy Football, we have 38% of the regular season gone.  It is time to know your roster well enough to figure out who you can trust.  NFL teams do make adjustments throughout the year.  However, outside of the Patriots who constantly baffle the experts on their game plans, most teams know what they will do and more importantly who they will feature.

• Floor Players – In season long leagues, early on, we talked about Floor Players.  You want guys who give you consistent and moderately predictable results.  The guys who get the ball the most are who you want on your team.  Here is a rule of thumb:
  • QBs – QBs can be tough, since so many of them can produce in a given week.  I want guys who are chucking it over 40 times a game.  Often times, that is a QB on either in a high flying offense like the Rams or Chiefs, but it can also be on teams with terrible defenses like the Falcons, Colts, Packers, etc.  Those teams will be losing and having to throw the ball more.  Stay away from the run heavy teams like Dallas, Tennessee or even Seahawks.  Those lower volume offenses need a good match up to start.
  • RBs – RB who gets the most touches on their team – hopefully, you have at least 1 if not 2 or 3 of these guys.  TDs are fluky, but you also want the guys who get the most goal line carries.  How do you know this?  Look at the game logs on scoring drives.
  • WRs – WRs who are in the Top 3 (and preferably Top 2) in targets on their team.  Where do you find this?  Here is a sample stats log from ESPN.  http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/atl – Look at Atlanta here – Ridley was hot, but Sanu gets more targets and he delivered on Sunday.  Be smart about who is on your roster.  Boom WRs can absolutely kill you with low or zero weeks (Amari Cooper, Oakland).  Find the target monsters that produce consistently.
  • TE – Tight End is the worst it has been in years.  There are really only 3 or maybe 4 guys you can count on week in and week out.  You can still look at targets, but streaming (changing every week) is a way to go if you do not have a reliable guy.  So, you will not find a great floor at TE.
• Red Zone Targets – You need guys who have the opportunity to score.  It takes a bit more research, but if you do not have solid floor players at each position and need to fill a spot week over week, then look at guys who get targets or carries in the Red Zone.  Those are more valuable opportunities, and then you will score more then trying to chase that WR who had 2 TD catches over 40 yards in a game.
• High Volume Offenses – Finally, do what you can to pick up as many players from the top offenses as you can.  Through 5 weeks, the Top 10 scoring offenses are 1- New Orleans, 2- Kansas City, 3- LA Rams, , 4- Cincinnati (I know surprising), 5- Pittsburgh, 6- Tampa, 7- Chicago (a bit tricky since they have multiple defensive scores – actually 24th in Yards/Game), 8- LA Chargers, 9- Atlanta and 9- New England.  Now, some teams like Houston, Oakland, Jacksonville and Green Bay are in the Top 10 in yards, but scoring is really more important.  Avoid guys on Bottom 6 scoring offenses (unless they get the ball a ton) – Buffalo, Arizona (except David Johnson), Dallas (except for Zeke Elliott), Tennessee, Miami, and Denver (in the Top 12 in yards).

I hope you are able to use this to strengthen your team for the next 4 weeks.  This is the time to make your move towards the playoffs.  Remember, in most leagues, you need 7 wins and the bye weeks here.  Weeks 7-11 will have 4-6 teams out.  So, you need to know who to play.  You can do it!

Week 6:  4 x 4

Free Agent Targets (60% Owned or Less)

• Wendell Smallwood, RB, Eagles (11% Owned) – Smallwood has stepped in with the absence of Corey Clement, and now with Jay Ajayi out for the year, he has immediate and long term value.  He is a must add in the Philly offense.
• Alfred Blue, RB, Texans (22% Owned) – Blue is not exciting at all, but with Miller out with an injury, Blue will get the carries.  He 20 carries on Sunday, plus 8 catches for 119 total yards, and the Texans will get red zone looks as they continue to move the ball.
• Alfred Morris, RB, 49ers (49% Owned) – Matt Breida is injured again, so Morris should get the bulk of the carries.  He had 19 touches for 91 yards in the loss on Sunday.
• Mohamed Sanu, WR,  Falcons (44% Owned) – Sanu is the actual 2nd target in the Atlanta offense (as can be seen above).  He finally broke out in Week 5 with 4 for 73 mostly on the 43 yard TD pass, but he has gotten 7 or more targets in 3 straight games.  He should be owned and will come in handy during the bye weeks.

Last Week:  Derek Carr was just ok with 268 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT – disappointing.  Mike Davis produced again with 12 carries for 68 yards and a TD – check the injury report as he did limp off late in the game.  Keke Coutee was great again – 7 targets for 6 catches, 51 yards and a TD.  Tyler Kroft was a zero factor and got hurt.  CJ Uzomah may be better in the offense, but not great.

Trade Targets (Buy Lows)

• Cam Newton, QB, Panthers – Cam is 16th at QB through Week 5.  He is playing fairly well without a great WR.  However, I’m looking ahead, as the Panthers have Tampa Bay twice, Atlanta in the fantasy playoffs and other favorable match ups.  Get him now before he pops off again (and he is through his bye week).
• Christian McCaffery, RB, Panthers – A lot of Panther love, but McCaffery is also through his bye and so involved in this offense.  He is averaging 23+ touches per week, but he is also 16th at his position but drafted in the Top 10 at the position.  He should surge up to that range or higher in the next 3 weeks.
• Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals – It is unlikely after Sunday you will get him, but he has the backfield to himself on a top offense.  He has missed a couple of weeks, and the owner may not trust him.  He is 19th at the position after 5 weeks.  He should also get 20+ touches from here on out.
• Julio Jones, WR, Falcons – A little crazy on this list, but Jones has 0 TDs through 5 games on a team scoring in the Top 10 of points per game.  He will get some, and now is the time to buy low, as he didn’t get a catch until late in the game.  He is 14th at the position, but he is tied for 6th in targets and 3rd in yards.  Go get him.

Last Week:  Tom Brady is back with 341 yards, 3 TDs (2 INTs) and a rushing TD.  Jordan Howard – on bye, so even more sneaky.  Antonio Brown – well too late, he went off for 101 yards and 2 TDs.  Rob Gronkowski was solid with 6 for 75 yards.

Sneak Starts (Unlikely Starters and Daily Plays)

• Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns (FD $7100)- Baker has swag.  The kid is not afraid to throw into coverage.  He played very well against the Ravens defense getting over 300 yards passing.  The Chargers played well against the Raiders, but almost everyone else has torched them.  I really like Baker in DFS this week and if you are missing Brees on bye, then pop in Mayfield.
• Peyton Barber, RB, Bucs (FD $5600) – The Falcons are really hurting on defense, and they allow a ton of receptions to opposing backs.  Barber will be a very cheap starter in Daily Fantasy.  This game should shoot out, so get this unlikely guy in your lineup if you need someone.
• Chris Hogan, WR, Patriots (FD $6200) – A total gut call here, but the Chiefs have been susceptible to the deep ball.  The Jags don’t have that guy, but they took their shots.  Gordon, Edelman and Gronk will get the attention, so Hogan could be good for a couple deep ones.  Super cheap in Daily on the Sunday Night slate with the highest total on the board.
• Eric Ebron, TE, Colts (FD $6500)  – One week late here, but Ebron still isn’t getting love.  Ebron has scored in 4 of 5 games, and clearly is the red zone target.  Now, he is 2nd at the position, but maybe you can sell the return of Jack Doyle at some point.  He is one of the non-Top 3 guys you can start mainly due to the TD production.

Last Week:  Sony Michel was great again with 19 touches for 110 and a TD.  Tyler Boyd was not good for once getting 7 targets but only 4 catches for 44 yards.  Tyler Lockett was awesome making the most of his 5 targets with 3 catches for 98 yards and a TD.  Antonio Gates didn’t come through with only 2 catches for 19 yards, as they didn’t need to throw much.

Guys to Avoid (Studs to Bench, if Necessary)

• Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings – The Vikings have been chucking it a ton lately with good success.  The Cardinals are sneakily playing good defense and allowing under 250 yards passing per game.  CB Patrick Peterson will likely shadow Stefon Diggs, even though Thielen has been the target monster.  I’d sit Kirk this week, even at home.
• Zeke Elliott, RB, Cowboys – Zeke is a must start, of course, but the Jags have to be angry after getting stomped by the Chiefs.  The Jags are not going to let Zeke beat them.  I’m starting him on my team, but I do not expect Top 10 production this week.
• Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers – Allen is a very good WR, but CB Denzel Ward is legit.  The rookie has locked up a lot of top targets, and I don’t love the Chargers on the road.  So, Allen will be limited in production.
• DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans – CB TreDavious White is a really good player and he will likely shadow the Texan top target.  Nuke is a great contested ball catcher, but Watkins may just look to hit other targets to move the ball.

Last Week:  Saquon Barkley is too versatile to sit or stop in Fantasy.  He was great with 19 touches for 129 yards and 2 TDs (including one from Odell Beckham).  Alvin Kamara was not a real factor with both the return of Mark Ingram and the game flow – he will be good going forward, but this was a good call.  Jarvis Landry was ok with 5 catches for 69 yards.  Travis Kelce was outstanding, too.  Jags defense got lit up.  Kelce 5 catches for 100 yards, as Ramsey shadowed Tyreke Hill more.

Alright, good luck to you all in Week 6.

Wegs