2018 has been incredible for scoring in the NFL and Fantasy Football.  Games are going way over the Vegas totals projected.  Hopefully, you are getting a piece of the action.

                                                                                                                                     It’s time to get Tommy!

Week 4 Observations

  • LA Rams – No defense can contain them.  Minnesota may not be an elite defensive unit anymore, but they are at least good.  On Thursday, QB Jared Goff eviscerated them with 465 yards and 5 TD passes (hint, that was not the best QB performance of the week).  Goff looks extremely comfortable in Year 2 under Coach McVay’s offense, and he is not taking shots to WR Brandin Cooks which he did not last year.  Can anyone stop this offense?  Until such time, start all Rams (except maybe the TE) in all formats.  By the way, the final score was 38-31, so the vaunted Rams defense gave up over 400 yards to QB Kirk Cousins and 2 100 yard WRs in Diggs and Thielen (so the Rams aren’t elite either).
  • Atlanta’s Defense is Terrible – Whoever plays against the Falcons is a must start QB and all the pass targets.  The Falcons have been decimated by injuries, especially in the middle of the field.  So, everyone is feasting on them.  This week it was QB Andy Dalton who threw for 331 yards and 3 TDs (1 INT) with WRs Tyler Boyd at 100 yards, AJ Green with 78 yards and a game winning TD, even John Ross caught a bomb TD (before hurting himself again), as did TE Tyler Eifert (probably out of the year).  Luckily, the Falcons offense has put the ball back in Matt Ryan’s hands who is the #2 QB in fantasy – he threw for 419 yards and 3 TDs.  So, the Falcons are going to be in shootouts all year.
  •  Patriots Still Good – The Pats limped into this one, but finally, QB Tom Brady and the gang showed up.  Now, rookie RB Sony Michel got 25 carries and delivered 112 yards and a TD, so it wasn’t all Brady.  Brady didn’t eclipse 300 yards (274), but with 3 TDs, and blowing out the Fins, they didn’t need it.  One problem, TE Rob Gronkowski got hurt and should miss some weeks.
  • Unlikely Performances
    • QB Mitchell Trubisky of the Bears lit it up against that swiss cheese defense of the Bucs.  He threw for 6 TDs total including 5 in the first half.  Bears rolled 48-10.  The best performance by any Bear QB in history.  He is the 2nd youngest to throw 6 TDs in NFL history.  Now, no one started this guy, but he could prove a very good Daily Fantasy play in plus match ups during the year.
    • QB CJ Beathard of the 49ers played extremely well in Jimmy G’s absence on Sunday.  First, it looks like the Chargers defense is not good this year, as expected.  Second, Beathard adds another element to the game with his legs.  He threw for 298 yards and 2 TDs (2 INTs), but ran 7 times for 19 yards.  That’s a lot of carries for a QB.  He may not be that bad of a streaming QB in that offense.  SF did lose 27-25.
    • All Raiders were incredible against Cleveland.  The Browns were playing pretty good defense, but this game was a total shootout totaling 87 points in the OT thriller (Oakland won 45-42).  QB Derek Carr made things happen with 437 yards and 4 TDs (2 INTs).  TE Jared Cook did it again with 110 yards and 2 TDs and led the team in targets again.  Even WR Amari Cooper delivered (I still don’t like him) with 8 catches for 128 yards and a TD.  Hell even, WR Jordy Nelson scored again making that two straight weeks with a TD.  A buddy of mine won big with Cook and Nelson in his DraftKings line up.  So, the Raiders are never going to be priced up.  If you can find that match up, then use them.
    • QB Marcus Mariota must be healthy again because he led the Titans back from a 17-3 second half deficit forcing OT and the win.  Mariota was incredible with 344 yards, 2 TDs passing and led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 10 carries.  He finally found 2nd year stud WR, Corey Davis who also lit it up 9 catches for 161 yards and a TD.  Apparently, the Eagles also stink on defense.
  • Feed Zeke for Results – The Cowboys finally decided to feed RB Ezekiel Elliott and it yielded big results.  Zeke got 25 carries which turned into 152 yards, but more importantly, he caught 4 balls for 88 yards and a TD leading them in receiving as well.  Now, the game script matters here, but if they can stay close, expect Zeke to vault up the scoring charts.
  • Warning Signs in Pittsburgh – The Steelers defensively have been bad all year.  They were not last night, but the offense got completely shut down by Baltimore.  Now, the Ravens are the #1 defense in the NFL right now.  However, it is troubling as RB James Connor only got 9 carries for 19 yards, and despite 11 targets, WR Antonio Brown caught only 5 passes for 62 yards and a spectacular TD.  I think Todd Haley’s departure is showing up now.  Ben is not as mobile and the play calling has not been inventive.  You are still going to start most of these guys, but you may proceed with caution.
  • Key Injuries:  TE Tyler Eifert (Bengals) broke his ankle – likely out for the year.  TE Rob Gronkowski (Patriots) hurt his ankle – could miss a few weeks (check reports).  WR Geronimo Allison (Packers) left the game with concussion (monitor protocol status).  WR Will Fuller (Texans) is listed as questionable with a hamstring for Week 5.  WR TY Hilton (Colts) also had a hamstring injury to be monitored.  RB Leonard Fournette re-injured his hamstring and left the game – he will likely miss more time.  Safety Earl Thomas (Seahawks) left the game in an air cast, so he looks seriously injured, which will not help the Seattle secondary.  TE OJ Howard (Bucs) injured his knee and will be evaluated today.  WR Sammy Watkins of the Chiefs injured his hamstring, so check reports for Week 5.

Scoring Way Up

In 2017, if you total all 32 teams points per game for 16 games, you got 692.9 scored per week.  That is 43.3 points per game for 16 a 16 game slate.  Through 4 games (and 2 teams on bye in Week 4), the scoring is 771.7 points scored each week or 48.23 points per game almost 5 points higher.  That number includes Arizona who is averaging just 9.2 points per game (the lowest team last year was Cleveland at 14.6 PPG).  So, between the rule changes, increased penalties on defensive plays, and the propensity for the defenses to not be able to get off the field, scoring is at a record pace.  What this means for Fantasy Football is higher scores across the board for all your players.  Now, that is totally fun for sure, but the problem with it is you may score a ton only to lose to someone else who scored more.  What can you do to win your match up?  Target the high total games!  Look at your players in match ups that should be shoot outs.  Now, I don’t think anyone thought Cleveland versus the Raiders was going to shoot out like that.  However, as mentioned above, Atlanta is going to be in shoot outs all year because of defensive injuries.  The Rams push people to score to keep up.  So far the Chiefs have been unstoppable, but their defense gives up big numbers too.  So, look at what I call a “Plus” match up where you think the defense is susceptible to score a lot.  On the flip side, you do need to avoid negative match ups – the Bears are really good.  Ravens look like a legit opponent most weeks when fully healthy.  The Jags defense is not going to give up 40 points.  The general rule in starting players or picking Daily Fantasy match ups is 1) Start your studs and 2) Pick Plus match ups for the fringe starters over other bench guys.

Week 5:  4×4

Bye Weeks:  Bears and Buccaneers

Waiver Wire Targets (60% of less owned players):

  • Derek Carr, QB, Raiders (50% Owned) – I don’t love Carr, but he has been much better in the past 2 starts topping over 340 yards in both games.  He will be a match up play for sure, but if you need a 2nd QB or bye week replacement, Carr takes on the porous Charger defense this week – not a bad start.
  • Mike Davis, RB, Seahawks (0% Owned) – Well, Chris Carson mysteriously appeared on the injury report and didn’t play on Sunday.  Instead of rookie Rashaad Penny getting the ball, the Seahawks turned to the less exciting but strong Mike Davis who got 21 carries for 101 yards and 2 TDs plus 4 catches for another 23 yards.  Now, it is hard to see if Davis will have staying power, but Coach Carroll said he will ride the hot hand.  Well, that’s Davis for now.
  • KeKe Coutee, WR, Texans (1% Owned) – So, first great name here.  Second, he got 15 targets in this one converting them into 11 catches for 109 yards.  This was Coutee’s NFL debut as a rookie out of Texas Tech.  So, if Watson trusts him, then I do.  Plus, Will Fuller injured an hamstring in the game.  They have a big game at home against Dallas in Week 5.
  • Tyler Kroft, TE, Bengals (1% Owned) – TE is a wasteland this year.  With new injuries to Eifert and now Gronk, people are going to be scraping.  Kroft played well last year in Eifert’s absence, so I think I’d look there first.  To break my own rules on the 4×4, other guys you can look at – Ricky Seals-Jones for AZ who has been ok.  Ravens’ rookie, Hayden Hurst has been injured, so you could speculate on him, if you have a decent starter now.  It’s a total streaming position this year.

Last Week’s Adds:  Buck Allen, RB, Ravens, was just ok on Sunday Night – 12 touches for 47 yards and no TDs for the first game this year.  Mike Williams, WR, Chargers, was a big disappointment in Week 4 getting 3 targets for 1 catch and 15 yards – he may be a match up play.  Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals delivered again with 15 targets leading to 11 catches and 100 yards.  Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles was also a non-factor with the return of Alshon Jeffery getting 2 targets, 2 catches and 13 yards – not good.

Trade Targets (Buy Low Guys)

  • Tom Brady, QB, Patriots – This may should crazy, but TB12 is not performing as drafted.  Through 4 games, he is ranked 19th or there abouts at the position.  Now, hopefully, you waited on QB and got Matt Ryan or Mahomes, but now is the time to trade for Tommy with WR Julian Edelman returning from suspension.
  • Jordan Howard, RB, Bears – Yes, I listed him Week 1, but he is now 20th at the position in PPR, and after the big Bears output, he may look really low for their owner.  Howard will get the ball, much like Kareem Hunt (who went off yesterday), the Bears will run the ball with this defense.  Make an offer with a hot prospect with limited staying power to grab a solid RB1.
  • Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers – I’m actually a little worried about AB and the Steelers.  They are not performing with the new OC and lack of discipline.  AB is currently 16th in PPR scoring.  His value will never be lower.  If you want to make your team better, then offer someone who is killing it for a guy who’s best games are ahead.
  • Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots – Gronk hurt his ankle Sunday and is not performing great.  However, the return of Edelman will help him, too.  Plus, Josh Gordon is still on the team.  The coverage should not be able to just stop The Gronk going forward.  He may even miss Week 5, which is an even better value depressor for you.

Last Week:  Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings, was the only one not feasting with 10 carries for just 20 yards and no targets – still a buy low.  Odell Beckham, WR, Giants, also didn’t have a great game (Sterling Shephard did) – 11 targets, but only 7 catches for 60 yards but what’s scary is 0 TDs so far – still a buy low.  DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans, popped this week finally – 12 targets for 10 catches, 169 yards and a TD, yep that’s right.  Zac Ertz, TE, Eagles, also crushed it – 14 targets, 10 catches for 112 yards – the Wentz Bromance is back.

Sneaky Starts (Bye Week Guys or Daily Plays)

  • Sony Michel, RB, Patriots ($6600 FD) – Probably not that sneaky, Michel is getting a lot of carries.  He received 25 carries for 112 and a TD last week after getting the most carries on the team in Week 3, too.  He is emerging, and on the short week, I think the Colts will be getting another heavy dose of the rook.
  • Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals ($6300 FD) – Again nothing sneaky here, as he is the leading WR for the Bengals.  It’s more a plug to start him every week until further notice.  Boyd has hit his 3rd year breakout with back to back 100 yard receiving games and 91 more in Week 2.  He is crushing it and he’s cheap in daily.
  • Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($6600 FD) – Lockett is the actual #1 WR for the Seahawks.  He scored in Weeks 1-3.  He faces a banged up Rams secondary that just got lit up by Kirk Cousins and the Vikes.  The Seahawks should trail in this one, and that means garbage time production for Lockett.
  • Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers ($4800 FD) – The venerable one has played well through 4 weeks.  He is not the target monster of old, but he has received 5 targets in 2 straight games.  He also caught a TD pass.  The Raiders are bad down the seam and Gates could score again.  Plus, TE is a complete wasteland right now.  Why not take a chance on a future HOFer?

Last Week:  Gio Bernard, RB, Bengals, had a day with 19 touches for 96 total yards and 2 TDs.  Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions, was just ok with 10 touches for 56 total yards and a TD.  John Brown, WR, Ravens, delivered with 7 targets for 3 catches and 116 yards and a TD – Brown is 3rd in yards per catch this year.  Sterling Shephard, WR, Giants, was awesome catching all 10 of his targets for 77 yards and 2 TDs.

Guys to Avoid (Studs to Bench or Adjust Expectations On)

  • Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants – Barkley is a dynamic talent, but he is not really producing with this still poor O-Line only 260 yards and 60+ of that was on one carry against the Jags in Week 1.  He is saving his value in the passing game, but the Panthers should be 100% off of the bye.  Hard to sit him, yes, but he will not be a Top 15 player this week.
  • Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints – So, you can’t sit this dude.  He’s crushing fantasy, but RB Mark Ingram returns this week in Week 5 and he will be chomping at the bit to get the rock.  Kamara will return to the complement RB over feature, especially in short yardage.  So, I would cut his production down by 40% (which is still awesome), but not a sure fire RB1 this week or going forward like you drafted him to be.
  • Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns – Juice Landry has been good so far and the top target, but the Ravens’ D is legit.  Plus, CB Jimmy Smith will likely follow him.  I don’t like Landry this week.
  • Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs – Really hard to sit any TEs that are healthy at this point, but do not expect big production out of Kelce.  He has been a stud since Week 1, but CB/S Jalen Ramsey should shadow Kelce and make Mahomes check down or take shots to Hill downfield.

Last Week:  Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bucs, crashed back to earth against the Bears with just 126 yards passing, 0 TDs and 1 INT.  Pat Mahomes, QB, Chiefs still delivered big with over 300 yards, 1 TD passing and 1 rushing, still no INTs.  James Connor, RB, Steelers, had just 12 touches for 44 total yards in the loss to the Ravens – they are legit.  Davante Adams, WR, Packers, only converted 14 targets into 8 catches for 81 yards – startable but not great.

Ok, another week in the books.  We are 30% complete with the Fantasy regular season.  So, it’s time to grind.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.