Week 3 was a wild one. We had huge upsets and some very high scores. The NFL is extremely difficult to predict week to week, which is why the phrase, “Any Given Sunday” exists.
Week 3 Trends
- Who Can You Trust: In Week 3, for those in Survivor Pool, it was a rough one. 85% of remaining teams were eliminated this week and for good reason.
- Minnesota was favored by 16.5 points at home against the winless Buffalo Bills. Well, Buffalo ran out to an early lead and didn’t look back. Kirk Cousins turned the ball over repeatedly and Rookie QB Josh Allen took over the game scoring through the air and on the ground multiple times. The Vikes never got back in the game and lost 27-6. Maybe the Vikings are not as good as we thought they were.
- Jacksonville beat down the Pats in Week 2, but came crashing back to Earth in Week 3 with an ugly loss to division rival, Tennessee. The Titans starter Blaine Gabbert, but he was knocked out only to have Marcus Mariota lead this team to the 9-6 win. Blake Bortles was not good in Week 3, and the team let him down with drop after drop. For some reason the Titans have the Jags number.
- Patriots lose 2 straight and this time at the hands of the lowly Lions on Sunday Night Football. A bit of shocker to me, but the Lions crushed the Pats limiting them to 212 yards of offense in the game. The Lions Kerryon Johnson, their rookie RB, ran for over 100 yards the first such feat in eons for Detroit. The Pats are looking for answers and allowing way too many points a lot like last year to start the year. Pats lose 26-10.
- Packers fall at the hands of the mighty Redskins, too. Adrian Peterson dominated the Pack with over 100 yards and 2 TDs in this one. Aaron Rodgers was hobbling all over the field and really ineffective with 27-44 pass attempts (under 62%). Yes, Clay Matthews was screwed again by a bogus roughing the passer call, but that didn’t explain how the Redskins ran for 166 yards and scored 28 first half points. Pack lose 31-17.
- Clear Best Offenses
- The Rams continue to just churn out production. The Chargers without Joey Bosa were no match for this unit. The Rams had over 500 yards of total offense with QB Jared Goff looking comfortable and really accurate throwing 354 yards and 3 TDs. The Rams have now scored over 30 points in every game this year.
- Hail to the Chiefs, as their onslaught on the NFL continues. Patrick Mahomes has still yet to throw an INT and had 3 more TDs. The Chiefs have scored over 38 points in each game this year, and get this, they have only scored 16 points in the 2nd half of the last two games. (Also, Jimmy G of the 49ers was lost for the year by SF on a run on the sideline and cut back, which should kill their season.)
- Both these teams play better defenses in Week 4, so let’s see if they can slow these units down.
- Misery Loves Company – there are 3 winless teams now in the NFL
- Houston is the surprise winless unit. Most thought with Watson back and Watt on defense, this team would soar, but it hasn’t happened. The Texans got beat against a lackluster Giants team at home in Week 3. They go to Indy this week in a must win situation if they want to see the post-season.
- Arizona really should have gotten their first win, but bad teams find ways to lose. First they killed several drives with key penalties. Then, they turned the ball over repeatedly in the 2nd half to give the Bears enough chances to score. Finally, they inserted rookie QB Josh Rosen in with under 5 minutes to play, which seemed ill advised. He threw picks in back to back drives to end the game on a fizzle.
- The Raiders just find ways to lose. In all three of their games, they have entered the 2nd half on top and the last 2 leading in the 4th quarter. This time, the Raiders gave up 14 fourth quarter points on big plays to the Dolphins to steal the defeat out of the jaws of victory. Maybe Chucky did need Mack after all.
Week 4 Look Ahead – Young Guns Take the Lead
- Week 4 will have a slew of young QBs starting. 7 teams will start either rookies or 2nd year players this week that is 21.88% of the league, which has to be the biggest percentage in a decade. With a generation of QBs either retiring – Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, and another few in their twilight of their careers – Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Big Ben – the league as we know it will be completely different in the next 4 years (another 16%). It is time for the young guns to take control of this league.
- Houston – Deshaun Watson – he’s like a grizzled veteran compared to the rest of these guys goes against Indy for their first win
- Chicago – Mitch Trubisky has struggled, but he has started 16 games now more than anyone else in this group. They square off against FitzMagic and the Bucs.
- Kansas City – Patrick Mahomes is on a mission to play like Marino in 1984, and he is currently on pace to throw 69 TD passes and 0 INTs. He plays on MNF this time against the tougher defensed Broncos.
- NY Jets – Sam Darnold will try to get the Jets back in the win column against the most likely angry Jaguars. Good luck to you, sir!
- Buffalo – Josh Allen makes his second start this time at Lambeau. He pulled off a huge upset in Week 3 at the Vikes, and it would be incredible to beat Rodgers in Green Bay.
- Cleveland – Baker Mayfield will get his first start this week at Oakland in the Black Hole. Baker was great in leading the Brownies to their first win in almost 2 years against the Jets. The Cleveland faithful see the next coming of Jesus in Baker, so hopefully, he can deliver.
- Arizona – Josh Rosen was not great in his late game entrance. However, with a full week of practice, he may fare better against the Seahawks who never play well in the desert.
Big Games of Week 4
- Vikings at Rams (-6.5) – the best game and possible NFC Championship preview is tonight as the Vikings try to bounce back against last week’s atrocity. The Rams are on cruise control, but the injuries to CBs Aquib Talib and Marcus Peters open the door for a potential shoot out. Not to mention, Minnesota premier pass rusher, Everson Griffin is under mental evaluation and will miss the game. The Rams should win the game, but not sure about that number.
- Dolphins at Patriots (-6.5) can the Patriots lose 3 straight? It’s possible, as the undefeated Dolphins travel to Foxboro to take on the wounded AFC Champs. Tannehill is 10-1 with Adam Gase as coach, so maybe they know something we do not. I think New England bounces back big this week, but then again, I thought that last week.
- Ravens at Steelers (-3) – This slugfest may turn into a shootout, as both offenses are tearing it up. The Steelers haven’t been able to stop anyone so far, and Joe Flacco has been chucking it a ton. The Ravens are 12 for 12 in the Red Zone scoring TDs. This should be a very good game, but I think the Steelers win and cover (or push at the 3).
- Chiefs at Broncos (+4.5) – The Chiefs have been blitzing teams early, but this time they will play in Mile High on the road on Monday Night Football. If Mahomes has a let down, then it will be Monday against Von Miller and the gang. The question is if Case Keenum can take advantage of the flimsy Chief defense enough to get the Broncos the win. I like the Broncos to at least cover.
For all the betting angles, check out our podcast – Side Action before the games.
Enjoy more of the best game on the planet.
Wegs