Wow, the NFL is unpredictable.  Any given Sunday was alive and well this week.  The Bills crushed the Vikings, the Jags sucked against the Titans, the Patriots lay an egg at Detroit, etc.  Hopefully, you were able to ride the rough waters to a victory, but remember, it’s a marathon and not a sprint.  The best thing about Fantasy is you can make changes to your team if you are struggling.

                                                                                                                Waiver Wire Target – Mike Williams, WR, Chargers

Week 3 in Review

There were a lot of things to watch this week.  The NFL is a week to week league, and after 3 weeks there are only a few teams we can count on.  Let’s review what I saw:

  • Chiefs are unreal:  Patrick Mahomes continues to run the KC offense to perfection.  SF is not a great defense, but the Chiefs scored so often in the first half, they only scored 3 points in the 2nd half and still won by 11 points.  Mahomes now has 13 TDs and 0 INTs.  Now, Mahomes threw to 11 different receives, so besides TE Travis Kelce (who wasn’t involved in Week 1), you may not get maximum targets.  RB Kareem Hunt only got 10 carries, but 2 TDs on the ground.  Even WR Sammy Watkins looks relevant in this offense.  For the time being, it will be hard to bench your Chiefs – EVER.
  • Rams are a Juggernaut – The Chargers were not a dominant defense, but they are good.  LA cut them up like a hot knife through butter.  Todd Gurley continues to destroy defenses with 150+ total yards and another TD.  However, QB Jared Goff looked great hitting deep balls, throwing 50/50 balls and moving in the pocket.  He has come a long way from his rookie year.  So, start your Rams – all of them.
  • Saints/Falcons Shootout – Last year these 2 teams played better defense against each other, but Sunday was the old school shootout we wanted.  Matt Ryan has now scored or thrown for 9 TD passes in his last 2 games.  WR Calvin Ridley has emerged as the #2 target in the offense and scored 3 TDs.  With RB Freeman out, it appears OC Sark is putting the ball in Ryan’s hands to move the ball.  For the Saints, I love Drew Brees.  Drew had just 10 incompletions on 49 pass attempts and scored 2 rushing TDs including a sweet spin at the goal line.  WR Michael Thomas didn’t score caught all 10 of his targets for 129 yards, and RB Alvin Kamara continues to dazzle with 190 total yards on 31 touches.  The offense will balance more when Ingram comes back, but damn that game was fun to watch.

 

  • Patriots aren’t Right – Without WR Julian Edelman, Tom Brady is struggling to put up the normal numbers we expect.  Brady had only 133 yards and 1 TD (1 INT), so until Edelman comes back or Josh Gordon emerges (don’t count on it), then Gronk is the only player to Must Start.  Brady will figure it out, but you can’t start Hogan or other Pat targets right now.
  • FitzMagic near FitzTragic – In the first half, it looked like the Magic was gone with 3 interceptions including a Pick 6.  However, in the 2nd half, Fitzpatrick lit it up scoring at will.  Fitz is the 1st QB in NFL history to pass for over 400 yards in 3 straight games.  He also threw 3 more TD passes for 11 on the year.  He is still the #1 Player in Fantasy through 3 weeks.  He faces the Bears Defense on Sunday which is a real test.
  • Key Injuries – QB Jimmy Garappolo is out for the year for the 49ers with an ACL tear (downgrade SF pass catchers), Bengals’ WR AJ Green will likely miss a game with a groin pull, Giants’ TE Evan Engram out a few weeks with ankle injury, and Browns’ QB Tyrod Taylor has a concussion and Baker Mayfield took the job.  On the flipside, the Rams appear to have lost both CBs – Marcus Peters avoided an Achilles tear, but he will be out for a long time and Aquib Talib severely sprained his ankle.  So, opponents against the Rams will be able to throw better than before.  CB Richard Sherman of SF also will be out in Week 4 (LA Chargers opponent).

Art of the Deal – Trading in Fantasy Football

The Waiver Wire is definitely the best and easiest way to improve your team.  However, based on your league rules, it may be impossible for you to get the players you really want.  So, trading assets for assets is a great way to obtain top flight talent to improve your team dramatically.  I’ll lay out a couple of trade scenarios that are very common in Fantasy Football.

  • Studs for Studs – This is the least common trade around, but the concept is you simply like another team’s player for your guy.  You believe the other guy will perform better going forward than the your top flight player.  In general, I do not recommend this type of trade.  Sure, you may get some value here, but if you are trading like valued players, then it really doesn’t improve your team.
  • 2 of 1 Trades – This type of trade is really trying to pry a stud away from another team.  You are offering 2 quality starters for 1 stud player.  We will go over how to make this work and teams to target in a minute, but this type of trade happens all the time and could be requested by the stud owner if they have holes in their roster.
  • Speculative Trade – This type of trade is almost like working the waiver wire.  You are looking at other rosters and see guys who you think are about to pop off.  You make a savvy offer to speculate on that player and hope it pays off for you.
  • Solidify Roster – The last type of trade you will see is a team trying to obtain a handcuff or back up RB for your stud RB late in the season or a missing piece to your roster like a Defense, TE or even back up QB.  These are lower profile trades mostly, and they are best made when you do not absolutely need that player to not overpay.

Key Trade Principals

  • Do not give up the best player in the trade – Fantasy Championships are won by studs.  Sure, there will be emerging players that will be on most championship rosters, however the top studs will be too.  Here is my last year Champ Roster – QB Foles (after Wentz went down), RB – Bell and Kamara, WR – Baldwin and Thielen, TE – Gronk, DST – Vikings and K – Elliott.  Yes, Kamara and Thielen pushed this team over the top, but Bell and Gronk were the near best at their positions.  So, if you decided to trade away the better player, then be prepared to have less upside.  The only time you would do this is if you are ravaged by injuries and can get 2 legit starters back.  I did this last year in another league trading QB Deshaun Watson (who got injured the next week) to get RB Mark Ingram and WR Michael Crabtree.  With injuries at RB with Dalvin Cook and an underperforming stud in Mike Evans at WR, this trade game me a shot to win each week.  However, I still missed the playoffs.
  • Always try to even out the trade – Assuming you are going to play Fantasy past this season, trying to screw over your fellow owners will make for a short trading career.  So, the best practice is to look at a team that has a need where you have depth.  Then, you can look how you can pry away a player you like and not give up too much yet both sides will be happy.  All trades should try to be a Win-Win.  How do you do this?  Use the Dave Richard Trade Chart (https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-week-4-trade-values-chart-rankings/).  Look at the values, and try to match them up as best as possible.  Who knows, you may face this team in the Finals, but by then you will both be in the money.
  • Injuries = Opportunity – Hopefully, you drafted the way I told you to.  If you did, then you should have solid starters and guys on your bench that are now either emerging or performing.  Now, entering into Bye Weeks, you do have to be wise in bottoming out your depth.  However, in every league, Jimmy G is out for the year.  If you have a solid back up, then look at how you can make a deal that helps them at QB and gives you a better player.  The Joe Mixon owner needs an RB, the Devonte Freeman owner, also.  These are the first trade partners you should look at.  Now, again, don’t give up all your depth, but look at those situations and see if you can help them and you at the same time.
  • Sell High and Buy Low – This is where your tracking comes in.  Some guys are outperforming their draft position, which hopefully, that is to your benefit.  Maybe you picked up the hot guy on the waiver wire – Ryan Fitzpatrick or a guy on your bench is blowing up.  Do those guys have staying power?  If so, then keep them, but maybe their opportunities will diminish when the starter comes back or they will regress.  You should look to sell those guys to get back a player who should be a Stud but is not performing.  In the 4×4, my trade targets are almost always studs who are not performing yet.  I will always trust a stud who is underperforming over a bench guy who is playing out of his mind.  Talent will win out in the NFL 85% of the time.  So, take advantage of early performance to get long term performance on your team.
  • Best Deal is the One That Doesn’t Happen – Sometimes it is better not accept that trade offer sent to you.  It is natural to get excited and just click accept to change your team.  However, the most important thing is to look at your team before a trade and after.  Which lineup is better?  If you are better off standing pat, then do it.  Of course, look to counter or if the trade makes sense accept it, however I know guys who trade all the time and get burned.  You need to be disciplined and know which players to target and how the new players will affect your team.

The last thing I will say about trades is that if you are now 0-3, then why not shake things up and start offering trades.  Maybe you had Le’Veon Bell or one of the suspended players on your roster.  Well, you have to win 7 games to make the playoffs.  You now have to go 7-3, and most importantly, you need a win in Week 4.  Trade Bell now.  Trade Edelman.  Trade Josh Gordon.  Trade your Stud for 2 starters that are performing if you have a hole in your lineup due to injury or some other reason.  What do you have to lose?  Fantasy is supposed to be fun, so you might as well be active and try to win then just accept your team is not as good as you had hoped.  Plus, maybe you can piece together a team that can get hot and win it.  Good luck!

Week 4 4 x 4

Bye Week:  Washington and Carolina

Waiver Wire Pick Ups (60% Ownership or Less)

  • Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens (48% Owned) – I’m not a fan of the talent here, but it is hard to deny how the Ravens are using him in the Red Zone.  He has a TD in every game so far, and is clearly the back they trust in Goal to Go situations.  I think Collins a much more talented player, but someone tell OC Marty Morniweg that.
  • Mike Williams, WR, Chargers (48% Owned) – Williams was the 1st WR taken in the 2017 Draft, but he was out the most of the time with injuries.  Well, he looks healthy now, and he is the top Red Zone target for Phil Rivers.  He pulled in 2 TDs Sunday, and that makes 3 on the season.  He is a must add in all leagues.
  • Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals (29% Owned) – 2 factors here – AJ Green has an injured groin, and even with Green, Boyd is clearly the #2 target in the offense (21 on the season).  His last 2 weeks – 6 for 132 and a TD and 9 for 91 and a score.  He is the deep threat, and until John Ross gets more PT, you have to think about starting this guy.
  • Dallas Goedert, TE, Eagles (7% Owned) – With Carson Wentz back in the mix, the TEs benefitted.  17 of the 37 pass attempts went to Ertz and Goedert.  He hauled in 7 for 73 yards and a TD.  The big and fast rookie at minimum is a speculative add, but this week at the Titans could be another nice game for him.

 

Last Week’s Guys – Fitz still got your big totals with 411 yards passing and 3 TDs (3 Ints).  Gio Bernard had 86 yards and a TD on 17 touches. Desean Jackson was held in check with 3 catches for 37 yards on 5 targets, but he did have an 83 yard punt return called back.  Geronimo Allison had another great day for the Pack with 76 yards and a touch.

Trade Targets (Buy Low Guys)

  • Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings – Cook missed Week 3 with a hamstring injury.  The Vikes clearly looked past the Bills and QB Kirk Cousins was exposed.  I think the offense will go back to more balance going forward, and Cook should be very good down the stretch.  I’d take advantage of the injury in the opposite direction this time, as his value probably could not be lower.
  • Odell Beckham, WR, Giants – Odell actually has been pretty good with over 100 yards in 2 of 3 games, but he has yet to score a TD (his forte).  His upcoming match ups on paper are great with 3 of 4 teams 20 or worse in defense against WRs.  Here would be a case for a Stud for Stud trade if you have an under-performing guy.  Odell will be great going forward.
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans – Hopkins is getting double teamed a lot allowing Fuller to get deep shots from Watson.  Still, Hopkins has double digit targets in every game so far with just 1 TD.  The Texans are now 0-3, and I think they will go back to their top target more to get their first win.  Like Beckham, he will play better going forward.
  • Zac Ertz, TE, Eagles – So, he was the #3 TE in Fantasy last year. A lot of that was because he scored more TDs than any other time in his career. He hasn’t scored one yet, despite heavy target volume. I think with Wentz back, Ertz will quickly get back in the end zone (along with Goedert). See if you can pick him up on the cheap using the principals above.

Last Week:  Kareem Hunt still didn’t get a ton of volume, but he scored 2 TDs.  Sony Michel wasn’t great, but he led all Pats back in touches with 15 and yards 49 – better things to come.  OBJ remains a buy low target until further notice – still hasn’t scored, but gets the targets – 10.  Demaryius Thomas continues to struggle catching 5 balls for 63 yards – more of a function of QB play (Case Keenum).

Sneaky Starts (Potential Bye Week Guys or for Under-Performers)

  • Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals (FanDuel $6400) – The Bengals get the Falcons who are terrible against pass catching RBs.  Kamara had 15 catches in Week 3 and McCaffery had 14 in Week 4.  Mixon will likely miss the game again, and even if he plays, there should be plenty of check downs.  Finally, AJ Green is coming off a groin injury, so they need other weapons.  Plus, the total is 51.5.
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions (FanDuel $5700) – The Lions finally turned to the Auburn rookie RB against the Patriots.  Johnson was the 1st 100 yard rusher for the Lions in years.  The Cowboys were eviscerated by the Seahawks in Week 3 and Sean Lee the Cowboys RB got injured.  Johnson should continue to get carries and rack up the yards in Week 4.
  • John Brown, WR, Ravens (FanDuel $6200) – The Ravens are passing the ball a lot more this year.  Plus, the Steelers are awful against the pass.  Brown is not the #1 target in the offense, but he is the primary deep threat and leads the team in yards and TDs.  The Steelers have been lit up deep all year.  I like Brown for 1 TD and at least 75 yards.
  •  Sterling Shephard, WR, Giants (FanDuel $6200) – With TE Evan Engram down, the Giants immediately started targeting Shephard a lot more.  He immediately becomes the 2nd option in the passing game.  The Saints continue to get roasted by opposing WRs.  Last week, they gave up 3 TDs to the #2 option – Calvin Ridley of the Falcons – in Week 3.  Shephard should get it done this week.

Last Week:  Blake Bortles was not good.  He went back to old Blake with just 155 yards passing, 27 rushing and no TDs – blah.  Latavius Murray was a huge disappointment as the Vikings got shellacked at home versus the Bills – 7 touches for 31 yards not what I was looking for there.  Kenny Golladay delivered on 7 targets, 6 catches for 53 TDs and a TD.  Austin Hooper was the only Falcon not to go off in that game with only 3 catches for 23 yards (right game, wrong player – Ridley).

Guys to Avoid (Normal Studs who Will Struggle)

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bucs – The NFL darling will struggle on Sunday against the Bears’ defense.  The Bears are forcing a lot of turnovers and have returned multiple INTs for TDs.  He will be under siege in this one.  It’s tough to sit the Magic Man, but you should this week.
  • Pat Mahomes, QB, Chiefs – Yes, it is crazy to think about sitting the #1 and #2 players in Fantasy, but the ease of the offense will hit a speed bump at some point and Denver is still a good defense.  He will still perform pretty well, but do not expect him to go off like Weeks 1-3 against poor defenses.
  • James Connor, RB, Steelers – You probably don’t have better options, but this match up is always a slugfest and if the ball is going to move, then it will be through the air against the Ravens not on the ground.  Connor can still catch the ball, but in standard leagues, he should sit if you have better options.
  • Davante Adams, WR, Packers – The Bills are a different team than their first 6 quarters.  Coach McDermott is calling the defense now.  Plus, they have a lock down CB in Tredavious White who held Stefon Diggs to minimal production.  Plus, there is a possibility Rodgers will sit on that sore knee.  Regardless, I don’t like Adams in this match up.

Last Week:  Russell Wilson did throw 2 TDs, but only 192 yards and no rushing yards (-1) that’s a good sit.  Cam Newton is such a fantasy weapon – he only passed for 150 yards and 2 TDs, but he did what he does scoring 2 more TDs on the ground on 10 carries.  LeSean McCoy did not play at all, so that was a good call.  Melvin Gordon was solid with 15 carries for 80 yards and a score, still a starter’s numbers, so I was off there.

Alright, let’s get back on that horse and get a win this week.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.