NFL – Week 3 – Fantasy Football W2 Review – Staying Patient, But Active – Week 3 – 4×4

Well, that was a crazy week in the NFL.  The Pittsburgh-Kansas City Over/Under was like 52.5, well, they scored 79 points combined.  Huge performances all across the league, and still non-performers from others.  This is Fantasy Football.  Things will go up and down.

Week 2 Review

This week’s games gave us Fantasy Gold if you had the right players.  There were several games that gave us huge production, but of course, there were others that left you checking your devices every 10 seconds with no changes in hours.  Here is what I saw in Week 2:

• Patrick Mahomes is Incredible:  Patrick Mahomes, KC QB, is looking like the #1 QB in Fantasy this year.  Sure, it is early, but he has thrown for 10 TD passes with 0 interceptions through 2 games.  He is incredibly efficient with under 30 attempts in both games.  He is incredibly accurate and has the gun to get the ball anywhere on the field.  If you have him, then start him every week until further notice.  He can win you the Championship.
• FitzMagic is still alive:  Dude is living a friggin’ dream.  Look at this post season pic That’s Swag, people.  He is playing loose and free and chucking 819 yards and 8 TDs (plus a rushing TD) in 2 games.  Will he continue this?  Probably not, but he may make the Bucs think twice about playing Jameis Winston post-suspension.  Gotta ride the hot hand here (especially in Daily Fantasy).
• Gurley is a Machine:  Often times, we wonder who the #1 pick in Fantasy is, but I think that is clear.  Todd Gurley is the center of the prolific Rams offense.  Through 2 games, Gurley is just crushing it with 220 total yards and 3 TDs (8 receptions for PPR leagues).  He will play better defenses, but he gets to play the Cardinals again this year.
• Bad Defenses Yield Big Results:  Mahomes has been great, but the Chiefs are terrible on defense.  Start your players against the Chiefs.  Same with the Cardinals, Bills, and Lions.  Targeting these defenses, especially in close decisions and Daily Fantasy should win you weeks and cash.
•  Browns Defense is Legit:  This is the 2nd mention of the Browns, but they held New Orleans to 21 points in the Super Dome.  That is insane.  In Week 1, they forced 6 TOs.  So, be weary of starting your players against the Browns anywhere.
• Injuries of Note:  There were a few injuries to track – Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals – out for a few weeks (pick up Gio Bernard), Devonte Freeman, RB, Falcons – out for a couple weeks (start Tevin Coleman), Lesean McCoy, RB, Bills – rib injury – watch the reports, Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings – hamstring issue, monitor reports, Mike Wallace, WR, Eagles – may be out for the year with ankle injury, and Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals – check reports listed as Questionable already for Sunday with Hamstring injury.
• Josh Gordon – Beware:  So, there was a reason I was not high on Gordon.  He is one step away from being out of the league for life.  The Browns have finally quit on the guy after 3-4 years of babying the guy through rehab and several suspensions.  He has been traded to New England for a 5th round pick.  I told you to start him this week, and on Saturday, he is going to be cut.  Save yourself the trouble and let someone else have him.  Even in the New England offense, he will not produce at the 2013 magical season.

In Season Lesson – Stay Patient, But Active

If you are 0-2, do not panic.  Chart your team, like you should.  How are you doing relative to the rest of the league?  If you are in the Top Half in total scoring and have scored in the Top Half each week, then you are doing ok.  In my PPR league, I’m 0-2 now, so, I played a guy who put up huge numbers with Gurley, Cam Newton, Will Fuller, Zac Ertz, etc. and if I would have started Matt Ryan I could have won. D’ems da breaks. I scored the 5th most points, but he had the most.  Turn the page to Week 3.  The routine you have established should pull you through.

Stay active on the Waiver Wire.  Look at the top targets and needs for your team.  Now, if you have Mixon or Baldwin or someone who is out a while, then look at trading options.  Next Week, I’m going to go over the Art of the Trade.  In the meantime, take a look at Dave Richard’s Trade Value Chart on CBS.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-week-3-trade-values-chart-rankings/

This is the best resource I know to value your team and players for potential trades.  Do not get fleeced.  Be smart and identify players that will ascend later.

On the flipside, be as patient as possible.  In most leagues, you have to win 7 games to make the playoffs.  So, you have 11 games to do that.  That is plenty of time.  Take stock of your roster, and see if you can cut some dead weight to speculate on guys that could help you.  However, do not just give up on your Top 5 or 6 picks from the Draft.  If you think someone else will pick the player up when you drop them, then do not drop them.  Look ahead to the next week’s match ups and see if you can get ahead of things.

You can do this.

Week 3 – 4 x 4

Waiver Wire Pickups (60% or under ownership)

• Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Bucs (21% Owned) – He is the #1 QB in Fantasy through 2 weeks.  Sure, Jameis comes back after Week 4, but if FitzMagic continues and the Bucs play the better performer, then he will continue.  They have the weapons and Dirk Koetter isn’t calling the plays anymore.  Pick him up and drop Mariota, Flacco or some other average back up on your roster.
• Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals (41% Owned) – With Joe Mixon out, Gio will be the hottest pick up out there.  Gio is versatile in both the passing and running game.  He should vault up to near 100% by Week 3.
• Desean Jackson, WR, Bucs (53% Owned) – So, what do people want to see to pick up this guy?  5 for 146 and 2 TDs in Week 1 and 4 for 129 and a TD in Week 2 – he has caught all is targets.  Now, they face the Bears next week, but you have to have this guy on your roster at this point.  He is the #1 Fantasy WR in football through 2 weeks.
• Geronimo Allison, WR, Packers (51% Owned) – Allison is the #3 target in Green Bay, however Rodgers likes this guy.  He has 14 targets in 2 games catching 11 of them – over 60 yards in both games.  I like his usage and Cobb is notorious for getting hurt.  He is a good speculative add as a WR3/Flex on your team.

Last weeks guys:  Smith was a dud, if you cut him, that’s fine.  Maybe give him another week (0 targets).  Lindsay is the lead back in a time share – 14 carries for 107 yards (8 carries for Freeman).  Lockett led the Seahawks in targets with 7, 5 catches, 60 yards and a TD.  He’s good.  Yeldon split the backfield with Corey Grant with Fournette out.

Trade Targets (Buy Low Guys)

• Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs – The Chiefs are throwing the ball a ton, and they are passing a lot in the red zone.  At this moment, it seems like they have forgotten about the guy who led the league in rushing in 2017.  I think over the course of the season, that will change.  However, this is a great time to target him.  He is getting 16+ carries in the first 2 games.  He has a daunting stretch of defenses coming up, so you may be able to wait a week or two, but keep your eye on Hunt.
• Sony Michel, RB, Patriots – This is a much lower end value guy, but I watched the Jags-Pats game, and I was impressed with Michel’s usage.  That was a tough defense, and he looked dynamic.  Sure, the Patriots RBs are as hard to predict as the stock market, however, he could be a good Flex in a lot of match ups going forward, get him before a big week (next week against Detroit).
• Odell Beckham, WR, Giants – Eli Manning looks terrible.  OBJ was targeted 9 times on Sunday, but the offensive line could not hold up for decent plays.  Try to pounce on this bad performance, if possible.
• Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos – I was not high on him in the pre-season, but double digit targets in the 1st two games.  He only had 18 yards receiving on Sunday.  Some owners may not be patient with him.  He is a super solid WR2 at a good price now.

Last week’s guys – Zeke had a solid game against the Giants with 78 yards and TD.  Watson was much better with Fuller back in Week 2 (320 yds, 2 TDs and 44 rushing yards).  Corey Davis went 5 for 55 yards, but he will be better going forward.  Kelce dominated in Week 2 with 7 for 109 and 2 TDs.

Sneaky Starts (Not typical good starts in Week 3)

• Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville (FanDuel $6700)– Blake was great against the Pats in Week 2, and he may be due for a let down.  However, the Titans have given up 220 and 2 to Tannehill and 320 and 2 to Watson.  Bortles should be good for 250 and 2 at home against Tennessee.
• Latavius Murray, RB, Vikings (FanDuel $5200) – I didn’t have him in the Waiver Wire section (owned in 46% of leagues), so he is a short term add.  Dalvin Cook has a hammy, and the Bills are terrible.  I think Murray will get the rock often in this one, so if you need a starter for one week – check the Cook status and start Murray if he sits or is limited.
• Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions (FanDuel $5800)– Golladay is outshining Marvin Jones right now with 13 targets and he is leading the team in yards.  He is a big bodied WR with a ton of upside.  The Lions should be losing against the Pats most of the day, and that means more garbage production.
• Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons (FanDuel $5200)– This guy is getting it done for the Falcons and coming off a 5 catches for 59 yards and a TD.  The Saints have been susceptible to the big play.  I like Hooper this week in a very high total game.

Last week guys – not as great here, Garappolo was solid in his start with 206 yards and 2 TDs, not fantastic.  Adrian Peterson was awful and only got 11 carries for 20 yards and 3 catches for 30 – AP was a 1 week wonder.  Nelson Agholor was a bit hit – 12 targets for 8 catches, 88 yards and a TD (he will continue to perform well with the Wallace injury and Jeffrey out).  Josh Gordon, well, he didn’t play….

Guys to Avoid (Typical starters that will struggle)

• Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks – Wilson will be running for his life again against that Dallas pass rush.  He may get some rush yards if he can get out of the pocket, but he should be sacked 5-7 times in this one.
• Cam Newton, QB, Panthers – Cam performed really well against Atlanta on the road in Week 2.  However, the Cincinnati front line is strong, and I expect Newton to be under pressure a lot in this game.  He will probably dump off to McCaffery a lot again, but I do not see a huge game for Cam, even at home in this one.  You probably do not have a better QB to go, so manage expectations here.
• Lesean McCoy, RB, Bills – McCoy is already questionable with a rib injury.  He may not even play.  However, he is playing the extremely tough, Viking defense, that should dominate this contest.  I would sit McCoy and look for other options.
• Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers – That Rams front is no joke. In 2 weeks, the Rams have given up 95 and 54 yards rushing. Gordon has been great in the passing game, too, but I think they will have a game plan to slow him. You probably don’t have a better option, but adjust your expectations.

Last week – Brady was 234 yards and 2 TDs, decent but not Brady-like.  Joe Mixon was hurt in the contest, he got 84 yards on 21 carries and only 1 catch – clearly injured.  Devonte Freeman didn’t play, so good call.  Stefon Diggs, well, I was completely off on this one – 13 targets, 9 catches for 128 yards and 2 TDs plus a 2 point conversion catch – in my defense he scored both TDs in back to back drives in the 4th Quarter, but one was a 75 yarder…

Let’s get some wins in Week 3.

Wegs