We head out West this week to look at the AFC West division. There are some good teams here, and this division has been a perennially strong division with multiple teams most years. In the AFC West you have the Oakland Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos.
Divisional History
This is a storied division with only the Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers as the team without a Super Bowl title. In fact, the entire division was created in the same year – 1960 in the old AFL. For those people who don’t know the history, the American Football League or AFL was a direct competitor to the NFL in the early 60s. The AFL innovated the league a bit, and paid their players a lot of money to swipe talent from the NFL. The founders of some of these teams – Lamar Hunt of Kansas City and Al Davis of Oakland – were really founders of the AFL league, too. Their leadership and willingness to innovate made the AFL a lot of fun. In the late 1960s, the Super Bowl was originally a big game between the AFL champion and the NFL champion. Finally in 1970, the leagues officially merged, and the AFL was no more. However, this division is the only 100% AFL original teams, and of course, they are in the AFC – American Football Conference – a holdover from the AFL name.
As I said, all 4 teams were created in 1960. Kansas City was actually created as the Dallas Texans by Lamar Hunt, but moved to Kansas City for the 1963 season. Kansas City was the 1st AFL Team to play in the Super Bowl in 1966, but they lost to the Packers. They would win in 1969 for their only Super Bowl Championship. Since the early years, the Chiefs have been competitive most every year. Kansas City boasts a rabid fan base and one of the loudest stadiums in the league at Arrowhead. In recent years, Kansas City has either won or been 2nd in the division for 3 straight years.
The Oakland Raiders were founded by Al Davis the true football legend. He created a team with attitude and a brand that became a national brand. His famous saying, “Just win, baby” is tied to the Raiders and on every NFL montage. In the 70s and early 80s, the Raiders were extremely competitive. They won Super Bowls in 1976 and 1980, and then Davis moved the team to Los Angeles in 1982. They went on to win their 3rd title in 1983. The legacy became a bit tarnished in the early 1990s with poor teams missing the playoffs for several years and moving back to Oakland in 1995. This move was met with a variety of opinions, but in time, Davis was able to build another winner under Coach Jon Gruden and lost to the 1st Brady Super Bowl team in New England in 2001 in the famous, “Tuck Rule” game, when Brady clearly fumbled the ball at a critical stage of the game only to be overturned by the refs in replay. After that season, Davis traded Coach Gruden to Tampa Bay, and the Raiders made the Super Bowl that year in 2002 only to lose to Gruden who was coaching Tampa to the title. Since then, the Raiders have struggled, Mr. Davis has passed away leaving his son, Mark Davis in charge to turn it around.
The Denver Broncos were not a great franchise early. They did make a Super Bowl in 1977, but it took the drafting of QB John Elway to make the Broncos a legit contender. Elway took the Broncos to Super Bowl in 1986, 1987, and 1989 losing badly in all of those contests. Elway took the Broncos to the playoffs 10 times, but it took a running game to get Denver over the hump. The Broncos were able to win back to back titles in 1997 and 1998 with Elway retiring after the 1998 title. The Broncos continued to be competitive, but not advancing the ultimate game until Elway, now General Manager, took a chance in signing the sure-fire hall of famer, Peyton Manning, after he missed an entire season with a neck injury. Manning broke all kinds of records and took Denver to the Super Bowl in 2013 only to be trounced by the Seahawks, Then, in his final season, Manning played “game manager” and led the Broncos to the title behind the league’s best defense in 2015.
The final team is the Los Angeles Chargers formerly the San Diego Chargers, which had its first season in Los Angeles in 2017. The Chargers have been a fun team to watch over the years. In the early years, they were not good, but in the late 70s and early 80s, QB Dan Fouts led the now famous Air Coryell Offense, named for Coach Don Coryell. In many ways, those Chargers were a precursor to the current NFL using a pass catching Tight End and throwing the ball the Running Backs, plus a lot of down field throws. The NFL in the 70s and 80s was more “ground and pound” with dominant running games and tough defense. The Chargers were throwing the ball everywhere, and I, personally, loved to watch it. Fouts did take the Chargers to an AFC Title game in Cincinnati in 1982, but they did not advance in what was known as the Freezer Bowl with wind chills in the -40 degree range. The Chargers did make a Super Bowl in 1994 with a different group only to get smoked by the San Francisco 49ers. Since then, the Chargers have been fun, but a series of playoff losses with talented teams really have disappointed more often than not. The Chargers have not made the playoffs since 2013.
Team Review
Los Angeles Chargers: Team Basics – The Chargers have been at the bottom of the division for a while, but that has allowed the management to get top picks throughout this roster. The Chargers still have QB Philip Rivers who is aging, but he has shown that he can still sling it. Rivers has passed for over 4000 yards for 5 straight years. He has weapons, even with a key loss. They do run a balanced offense with RB Melvin Gordon, too. I like this offense a lot. On defense, the Chargers are vastly improved from the last couple years. The Chargers play a basic 4-3, and they have the 2 edge rushers to destroy opposing QBs with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Plus, the Chargers have a very talented secondary in Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams at CB who can match up in man coverage if the Chargers want to blitz.
In the off season, the Chargers have adjusted to adversity. On offense, TE Hunter Henry has torn his ACL and will be out for the year, which leaves a hole at TE. However, the 2nd year WR Mike Williams who missed a lot of time last year is healthy and back to a starting role. Other than that, the offense remains about the same. On defense, the unit got even better, no major losses, but with the addition of 2 top draft picks – Florida State Safety, Derwin James is an athletic freak who will be great on their back end, and in the 2nd round, Uchenna Nwosu, adds needed depth to the Linebacker corps that struggled to stop the run. With James and Nwosu, the Chargers should have a Top 5 defense this year.
Prediction: The Chargers will vault back in the playoffs and win the AFC West this year.
Kansas City Chiefs: Team Basics – The Chiefs are an Andy Reid run team, which means a modified West Coast offense. That is a quick passing game with single back running sets. The Chiefs had a great year last year on offense, and were prolific led by TE Travis Kelce and super fast WR, Tyreke Hill, plus big surprise rookie RB Kareem Hunt who has a great year. They did lose last year’s OC Matt Nagy to the Chicago head coaching job, Eric Bieniemy takes over their former RB coach. On defense, the Chiefs run a 3-4 predicated on pass rush from the outside LBs, however they struggled last year to stop people with their top Safety Eric Berry lost in Week 1. Plus, they have lost other players on this side of the ball, which I’ll review next. If the Chiefs cannot get the QB and force TOs like they have in years past, then this unit could struggle again.
Kansas City has had some big turnover. In 2017, the Chiefs selected the strong armed QB, Patrick Mahomes from Texas Tech. Well, it took just one season to give him the reins, as the Chiefs traded Alex Smith to Washington. Smith was a solid QB leading this team to the playoffs multiple times. Mahomes is a gunslinger in the ilk of Brett Favre – high risk, high reward. However, he could struggle in the NFL. The other big acquisition was WR Sammy Watkins who was a star in Buffalo in 2015, struggled with injuries in 2016 and disappointed for the Rams in 2017. If Watkins can get on the same page as Mahomes, then the Chiefs will have 3 legit targets to go with Hunt in the backfield. On defense, the Chiefs parted ways with long time sack man, Tamba Hali, lost Pro Bowl CB and Marcus Peters to the Rams. They have recently signed CB Orlando Scandrick who was with the Cowboys, signed by the Redskins only to be cut in camp, so, not the caliber of Peters. With the Mahomes trade up last year, the Chiefs did not have a 1st round pick, but tried to add some depth on defense with DE Breeland Speaks of Ole Miss in the 2nd round and Derrick Nnadi, DT, Florida State. Looks like neither of the two will start, so the KC defense has not upgraded at all, save for the return of Eric Berry. I think they will struggle mightily on defense.
Prediction: The Chiefs could make the playoffs, but I do not trust them to win the AFC West – they will finish 2nd – too many changes for me.
Denver Broncos: Team Basics – The Broncos are now 3 seasons removed the Peyton Manning era which elevated the team to Championship levels. On offense, the Broncos are pretty average with a balanced attack with decent weaponry. The fall off post-Manning has been marked. On defense, the Broncos should still be a near elite unit. They run a blitzing 3-4 and have arguably the best pass rusher in the game with Von Miller. However, there have been some losses, which we will review. Still, the Broncos are a defense first team that should compete if they can get some offense to back them up.
Denver had some big changes in the off season. Starting at QB, the Broncos signed Case Keenum who had a career year in Minnesota last year. They got rid of Trevor Simien, last year’s Week 1 starter and will likely cut 3rd year man, Paxton Lynch. I do not think Keenum is the answer, but he can manage the game and make quality throws. They did draft, Chad “Machine Gun” Kelly at QB out of Ole Miss who has done well at camp. He may get some time under center before the year is out. GM Elway did draft 2 quality WRs to help the aging corps – Cortland Sutton out of SMU is a tall, athletic guy who could catch some TD passes, while DaeSean Hamilton out of Penn State is a good route runner and possession guy to run alongside Demaryius Thomas and now healthy, Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos also got rid of CJ Anderson and drafted Royce Freeman out of Oregon in the 3rd round who will start soon enough. So, the offense has some promise, but not a top flight group. On defense, the Broncos lost Aqib Talib at CB, who as much as I don’t like the guy, is a great corner to the Rams. The Broncos used their 1st round pick to take the top pass rusher in Bradley Chubb out of NC State. Now, Chubb may be the Demarcus Ware replacement they need to be opposite Miller to return to the top of the sack charts. I still see the team as not great. They will have their moments, but they are almost in transition. The defense will win some games, but can the offense do enough. I’m not buying.
Prediction: The Broncos will struggle and finish 3rd in the division and miss the playoffs again.
Oakland Raiders: Team Basics – The Raiders made one key move in the off season – they re-hired Jon Gruden to lead the Silver and Black back to greatness and fired Jack Del Rio. Gruden has been in the booth for a decade, but he remains close to the game with his famed QB camps. So, we will see if the old Gruden will surface. Gruden comes from the Bill Walsh-Mike Holmgren-Andy Reid coaching tree, which means West Coast Offensive principles. However, Gruden was known for his power running schemes, especially in his first stint in Oakland when they were very successful. He has a young, solid QB in Derek Carr to lead the offense. However, he needs more production out of the rest of the offense. On defense, the Raiders have been terrible. Even with arguably the other best defensive player in football, Khalil Mack at DE, who is currently holding out and may even get traded before the season starts. So, the Raiders are slated to run a 4-3 front, but I’m not entirely sure what they will do under DC Paul Guenther who came from Cincinnati (a 4-3 team). In Cincinnati, Guenther had some really good defensive ends and a solid back end. In Oakland, they lack ability on each level. He has his work cut out for him.
The Raiders are a team in transition. Gruden has completely remade this roster bringing in veterans all over the place. On offense, they got rid of WR Michael Crabtree (last year’s top WR), and they signed enigmatic WR Martavis Bryant from the Steelers. On the offensive line, they have 2 rookies penciled in to start at tackle in Kolton Miller from UCLA and Brandon Parker out of North Carolina A&T. Plus, they signed RB Doug Martin from Tampa Bay giving them 2 aging RBs with Marshawn Lynch. I’m not bullish on this unit. On defense, they made a lot of moves. They released CB David Amerson, the troubled DE Aldon Smith, traded DE Jihad Ward to Dallas for a slot WR (who they traded along with a draft pick to the Steelers). So, Gruden is wheeling and dealing right now trying to find combinations that work. They did draft PJ Hall out of Sam Houston State at Defensive Tackle and the potentially troubled DE Arden Key out of LSU, plus they drafted the injured, but talented DT Maurice Hurst out of Michigan. This defensive draft class may be really good, but probably not in 2018. The whole team looks like a work in progress.
Prediction: The Raiders will struggle mightily to win 5 games this year and finish last in the division.
That is the AFC West. A very intriguing division for sure. Who do you like?
Wegs
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