We continue to roll through the NFL, and this next installment is with the toughest division, in my opinion, the NFC South. The NFC South is made up of the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
NFC South History
The NFC South is one of the more fascinating divisions in football. Although you have only 2 teams that have won the Super Bowl – Tampa Bay in 2002 (under traded coach Jon Gruden) and New Orleans in 2009 (the same season Hurricane Katrina happened). The NFC South has represented the NFC in the Super Bowl in the 2015 and 2016 seasons. So, the division is loaded with competitive teams.
The oldest team in the division is the Atlanta Falcons who came into the NFL in 1966. The Falcons were decent in the early 1980s, and gained some notoriety in the early 1990s with the drafting of Hall of Fame CB Deion Sanders and the proclaimed “Dirty Birds” team under then Coach Jerry Glanville. The Falcons made their first Super Bowl in 1998, but got slaughtered by the Denver Broncos. Finally, with some mediocre years in the early 2000s, with the drafting of QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons have been a really solid team for almost a decade now. In fact, they should have won the Super Bowl in the 2016 season, but they blew 25 point lead to Tom Brady and the Patriots.
New Orleans is the 2nd oldest team in the division formed in 1967. The Saints were just terrible in the early years, so bad their fans were renowned for wearing paper bags over their heads at games. Their one “star” in the early years was Archie Manning at QB, father of both Peyton and Eli. The Saints have played in the Super Dome for decades, which has been home to several Super Bowls. However, the Saints finally made a Super Bowl themselves in 2009 after the city got behind them after the terrible Hurricane Katrina. QB Drew Brees is a model of consistency and excellence and is at the top of the list in almost every category for passing records.
Tampa Bay was an expansion team starting in 1976. The famous “Creamsicle” unis were an icon for a franchise that was terrible nearly every year. They did have a good squad in 1979 with QB Doug Williams one of the first African American QBs to start in the league. However, that success was not sustained. Fast forward to the late 1990s, under Coach Tony Dungy (who eventually would be the 1st African American coach to win a Super Bowl), took the Bucs to the brink of a Super Bowl berth only to have the team trade for Jon Gruden from the Raiders in the 2001-2002 season. Gruden won the Super Bowl with Dungy’s players (Dungy would win his title in 2006 with the Colts). Since that team, the Bucs have been near the bottom of the league. They drafted QB Jameis Winston in 2015 to lead this team to greatness, but the fans are still waiting for that to happen.
The Carolina Panthers joined the NFL as an expansion team in 1995. With early success under initial coach, Dom Capers, the Panthers played for the NFC Championship in 1996-1997. After a transition, the Panthers got to the Super Bowl in 2003 under Coach John Fox only to lose to the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Then, under now Coach Ron Rivera, the Panthers drafted QB Superman Cam Newton in 2011 and have been a division contender ever since reaching the Super Bowl in 2015-2016 season only to lose to the Broncos.
Besides the recent Carolina run of division titles from 2013-2015, it is really a revolving door of champs. Last year, the NFC South was the only division in football to qualify 3 teams in the playoffs in the same year since the AFC North in 2014 (AFC West did it in 2013). Each year, the division comes down to the wire, so 2018 should be more of the same.
Teams
New Orleans Saints: Team Basics – The Saints have traditionally been a high scoring team that is built to win with QB Drew Brees’s arm and not much defense. However, last year, the team flipped the script. The Offense ran the ball a lot more with the deadly RB tandem of Mark Ingram and last year rookie Alvin Kamara. That 1-2 punch accounted for 49.43% of the Saints’ yards from scrimmage in 2017 (3094 yards). So, Brees had a relatively down year throwing the ball, but the team won a lot of games. Now, Ingram is suspended for the 1st 4 games of 2018 for PEDs, so it is possible the offense will revert back to a wide open attack, however, the commitment to the run worked well. On defense, the Saints improved across the board from 2016 in their base 4-3 alignment, with an incredible draft. In addition to Kamara on offense, the Saints added Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore who allowed the defense to take more chances in the blitz game, as Lattimore locked up #1 WRs all year. I would expect more of the same this year, as the Saints have actually added even more pass rush in 2018.
The Saints did not make extensive changes on the roster. However, the additions were definite upgrades. On offense, finally got rid of the disappointing TE Coby Fleener, but they re-signed the 37 year old, Ben Watson at TE, who had a great year with Drew Brees in 2014. In addition, the Saints acquired restricted free agent, Cameron Meredith at WR and drafted rookie WR, Tre’Quan Smith from Central Florida. So, the offense should be just fine without Ingram for 4 weeks. On defense, the Saints did not lose anyone significant and drafted the physically gifted, DE Marcus Davenport out of UT-San Antonio to be a pass rusher and Safety Kurt Coleman and Patrick Robinson to help the secondary. The Saints should be as good as anyone in the NFC this year.
Prediction: Saints win the NFC South and make a push for the NFC Championship.
Atlanta Falcons: Team Basics – The Falcons came the closest to beating the Super Bowl Champs, Philadelphia Eagles, as anyone else last year. They were really one play away from knocking them off in the Divisional Round, and in 2016 had the Super Bowl fall through their fingers. So, this is a very talented team on both sides of the ball. On offense, the 2016 Falcons were the league’s best offense, but in losing Kyle Shanahan to SF, the unit took a back step under OC Steve Sarkisian. The biggest change was in QB Matt Ryan’s TD efficiency, which speaks to lack of creativity in play calling. WR Julio Jones still had a monster year in terms of yardage, but the low TD production coupled with a decline in the running game led to less points and wins. In 2018, if the Falcons can get some of that efficiency back, then they will be a force to be reckoned with. On defense, Atlanta (Seattle style 4-3) was a unit that improved over the course of the season. Coach Dan Quinn had his team playing great ball when it mattered, but the lack of pass rush was startling. The Falcons only tallied 39 on the year and not a single player had double digit sacks. They need the return of Vic Beasley to his 2016 form to get to the top of the league again. The coverage group was really what saved this team, and I think they may be even better this year.
The Falcons are virtually the same team as last year. On offense, the only major departure was the speedy WR Taylor Gabriel who signed with the Bears. They replace him with the highly touted WR Calvin Ridley drafted from Alabama who is not as fast as Gabriel, but he is a complete WR. So, the offense will need to improve mostly through play calling and scheme. On defense, the unit remains intact with only the newly added draft pick out of Colorado, CB, Isaiah Oliver to add to an already deep secondary. Hopefully, the exercised 5th year option on Beasley will motivate him back to greatness. The Falcons should be as solid a team as they come.
Prediction: Falcons are a contender for both the NFC South and Championship, but I have them finishing 2nd in the division and Wild Card in the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers: Team Basics – The Panthers have been on top of this division for a while now, but losses in free agency and aging has eroded the title contenders to middle of a talented NFC. On offense, the Panthers made a switch at OC to try and liven up the play calling. New OC, Norv Turner returns to the NFL after successful stints with Dallas in the 90s, head coaching in Washington and San Diego with his most recent stint in Minnesota as OC. Turner is a balanced, play-action type OC who will ask superstar QB Cam Newton to stay in the pocket more and throw on time. This could be tough for Cam, but if he wants to evolve into a premier passer, then Norv is the guy to do it with him. Cam’s accuracy will be the barometer for the team’s success in this system, which could take more than one season. On defense, the Panthers are still formidable, but the elite LB unit of Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechley are getting a little older (especially Davis). So, the front 4 in the 4-3 needs to be better than other years. Carolina is still a really good team, but elite.
The Panthers have had some turnover. On offense, the Panthers let long time RB, Jonathan Stewart go to sign with the Giants, but replace him with former Denver man, CJ Anderson. They also drafted a talented WR in DJ Moore out of Maryland who could be the best WR in this draft. On defense, they let go of long time DE Charles Johnson and S Kurt Coleman (signed with the Saints), but they got a boost with the signing of stout big man DT Dontari Poe from the Kansas City Chiefs to help against the run. The rest of their draft was to create depth on defense with CB Donte Jackson from LSU and Rashaan Gaulden from Tennessee at Safety. The Panthers are treading water in my view. The problem is the rest of the division has gotten better and coming of age. They will be good, but maybe not good enough in a loaded NFC.
Prediction: Panthers hover around .500, maybe get 9 wins, but will miss the playoffs this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Team Basics – The Bucs are a volatile team. After drafting Jameis Winston, the hopes and expectations rose quite a bit in Tampa, however after another disappointing year, Coach Dirk Koetter is on the hot seat. On offense, the team will have to tread water as Winston is suspended the 1st 3 games of the year after a sexual assault/harassment issue. The team had reportedly flirted with cutting Winston outright, as this is a second instance on his record. He is saying all the right things now, but the “leader” of the team needs to act that way on and off the field. The offense still has potent weapons in WR Mike Evans and Desean Jackson, plus the dual TE threats of Cameron Brate and OJ Howard. However, the run game is not really very strong, and the OL is not a strength of this team. Likely, the Bucs will air it out again with Ryan Fitzpatrick and then Winston upon return. On defense, this unit has been more than disappointing with solid talent, but a lacking passion, especially in the red zone. The Bucs finished dead last in yards against last year. So, they need to improve.
Tampa tried to address some key needs in the off season. On offense, the Bucs released RB Doug Martin paving the way for younger talent like the newly drafted RB Ronald Jones out of USC along with veteran Peyton Barber, plus they drafted developmental tackler, Alex Cappa out of Humboldt State. So, the offense remains mainly the same. On defense, the Bucs tried to pick things up with a big trade for former Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP will improve their pass rush, plus, they drafted Washington Nose Tackle Vita Vea, who could be the next coming of Haloti Ngata. Finally, the Bucs drafted 2 second round CBs in MJ Stewart from North Carolina and Carlton Davis of Auburn, who should be good pros in time. I question Koetter’s leadership and if Mike Smith has what it takes to make the defense much better. With Winston out, I think the Bucs will struggle, and to me, this is clearly the worst team in the division.
Prediction: Buccaneers finish last in the NFC South and may be picking in the Top 10 next year.
That is the NFC South a loaded division, which could have a representative in the Super Bowl. I would be surprised if one of the teams is not at least in the NFC title game, but the NFC is just stacked this year.
Who do you like?
Wegs
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