We roll on to our next Divisional Preview. This time we tackle the AFC South which is comprised of the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans.
Division History
The AFC South is made up mostly of expansion teams. Technically, the oldest of the teams is the Indianapolis Colts who relocated to Indianapolis from Baltimore in 1984. The Colts were an old NFL team with such stars as Johnny Unitas and coaching legends like Don Shula winning a Super Bowl in 1970 (and a famous loss to the NY Jets and Joe Namath in 1968). In going to Indy, the Colts had limited success until they drafted Peyton Manning in 1998 who transformed the team into a winner – winning the Super Bowl in 2006. The torch was passed to Andrew Luck in 2011 after a Manning injury, but despite some playoff appearances, the Colts have sputtered of late. The Titans are next in terms of age, technically, once the great Houston Oilers from the AFL, but like the Colts were moved to Nashville in 1997 and changed their name in 1999 to the Tennessee Titans. The Titans made a Super Bowl appearance in that year – 1999 only to lose to the St. Louis Rams by just an arm’s length. Since then, the Titans have been middle of the road, but with a new approach and a young QB, they are on the upswing making the playoffs for the first time in 9 years in 2017. The Jacksonville Jaguars came into being in 1995 as an expansion team. With some early playoff runs, the Jags became kind of a laughing stock in the mid-2000s. However, last year with a new regime in control, the Jaguars took the division for the first time since realignment. Finally, the Houston Texans were also an expansion team in 2002. The Texans have had a solid history and have contended for the division most years of late, but a lack of a QB and injuries on the defense plagued them in 2017.
The AFC South is not exactly a power house division. The division is typically hotly contested internally. However, only the 2006 Indianapolis Colts have won a Super Bowl in this division, while the Colts played one more time for the title (2009) and Tennessee in 1999, for 3 total Super Bowl appearances since the various relocations and expansions have come in. Most years, there was only a single qualifier for the playoffs, but there is a trend in this division towards success as both Tennessee and Jacksonville qualified last year. This year should be well contested again.
Team Breakdown
Jacksonville Jaguars: Team Basics – Since the hiring of Tom Coughlin, the original coach of the Jaguars back in the expansion years, as the senior football man, the identity of the bumbling Jaguars disappeared. Coughlin hired another tough guy in Doug Marrone to be the Head Coach and implement the no nonsense approach on and off the field. With the Jags constantly being at the bottom of the league, they did acquire several high quality draft picks over the years. So, in 2017, the Coughlin-Marrone strategy was to discipline this talented defensive team to be as ferocious as any other defense in the league. With defense being the hallmark, the Jags decided to play complementary football, meaning a more run-based approach to shorten the game to keep that defense fresh. On defense, the Jags run a base 4-3 front with great pass rushers in Dante Fowler and Yannick Ngakoue on the outside and former Cardinals standout, Calais Campbell (fresh off his appearance on Ballers) and former Bronco Malik Jackson in the middle. The Jags back end is built on speed with playmakers at every level – LB Myles Jack is as athletic as any other NFL backer, CB Jalen Ramsey is an elite cover corner opposite former Texan AJ Bouye at CB. At safety, they have veteran Barry Church. This group is mostly young, fast and hungry. On offense, the Jags invested in now 2nd year RB Leonard Fournette early last year, and it paid dividends as he was a leading rusher last year. The commitment to the run helped the often inaccurate passer, Blake Bortles, have his best professional year. Along with a lot of upside WRs, the Jags were able to score enough to win 10 games last year and play for the AFC Championship at New England where they eventually lost in the 4th quarter after leading by double digits.
The Jaguars did have some movement, but the nucleus of last year’s team remains intact. Top WR, Allen Robinson who didn’t play in 2017 due to an ACL injury left for the Bears in free agency, along with veteran TE Marcedes Lewis who is with the Packers and WR Alan Hurns who signed with the Cowboys. The Jags replace the WRs lost with free agent acquisition, Donte Moncrief of the Colts, drafting the speedy DJ Chark from LSU and signing Austin Sefarian-Jenkins from the Jets at TE, the moves also make room for last year’s WR class of Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole who shined in the post season last year. On defense, they remain mostly the same with no major losses, but they drafted more youth in LB Leon Jacobs from Wisconsin, S Ronnie Harrison from Alabama and DL Taven Bryan of Florida. The Jags are a team on the come, and they should be a force again in the Division and contend for the AFC Championship again along with New England and Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Jaguars win the AFC South and play again for the AFC Championship.
Tennessee Titans: Team Basics – The Titans finally got back in the playoffs after years of mediocrity. The base of their team is the strong offensive line and robust running attack. With Marcus Mariota at QB, the Titans have a dual threat. However, the Titans management wanted a change of leadership, despite the post-season berth (and win at KC). The Titans fired Mike Mularkey and went with a young star in the making in Mike Vrabel the former New England LB and Houston Texans Defensive Coordinator. With Vrabel, the defense should improve by sheer will, but will the offense flourish under new OC, Matt LeFleur, who comes over from the Rams. The Rams ran a diversified attack confusing defenses and leading the league in scoring. The Titans’ success will hinge on Mariota grasping the new system. On defense, Dean Pees takes the DC role, but I’m sure Vrabel will help call the defense. The front should be a 3-4 blitzing style like they did in Houston. The Titans lack the playmakers Houston has had over the years, so it may be a tough transition in Year 1.
The Titans have seen some movement in the off season. On offense, the retirement of RB Demarco Murray paves the way for 3rd year man, Derrick Henry to be the main guy. The Titans also signed New England scat back, Dion Lewis, who is a complete change of pace to Henry. The WR corps loses veteran Eric Decker who signed with the Patriots, but that gives more playing time to 2nd year WR Corey Davis and Taiwan Taylor. The Titans also signed Taylor Lewan, the mountainous LT, to big money to keep him happy and solidify that line. On defense, there was some turnover. They added former Redskins LB Will Compton at LB who is slated to start and depth at Safety with Kenny Vaccaro from the Saints. The defense still lacks playmakers and is the weakness of the team. I see that as a struggle again this year.
Prediction: Titans will finish 2nd in the AFC South, but no playoffs this year for this group.
Houston Texans: Team Basics – The Texans were at the top of the division for several years, but took a tumble last year with too many injuries. Coach Bill O’Brien made the quick switch to QB Deshaun Watson who was incredible for 7 or 8 games before tearing his ACL. With Watson back in the fold, the Texans have a shot to be great on offense. They will be balanced mostly, but with Watson he spreads the ball around and takes a lot of shots. His connection with both WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller lit up the scoreboard in 2017. I’d expect more of the same, but the league may have some better defenses to confuse Watson. On defense, the Texans were great in 2016, but awful in 2017. Injuries riddled this unit including JJ Watt and others on that once dominant front. With the loss of Mike Vrabel as DC, the Texans turn back to Romeo Crennel, the former DC. I would expect a lot of blitzing and man coverage, if the ferocious pass rush can return to form.
Houston had minimal losses in the off season. The main loss was long time LB Brian Cushing who was released. Really the main additions are returning players from injury in JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and Deshaun Watson. The Texans did add a playmaker in the secondary in signing former AZ Cardinal, Tyrann Mathieu, the Honey Badger, who will play with a chip on his shoulder after being cut. The only real impact rookie signed was Stanford Safety, Justin Reid who may not even start. The Texans need to go back to their brand of football on defense and let Watson score enough to win games. I don’t love their chances in the AFC, but they could definitely leapfrog the Titans in the division. I don’t see them overtaking the Jags, though.
Prediction: Texans will finish tied for 2nd in the AFC South, but also miss the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts: Team Basics – The Colts went through a major transformation this off season. GM Chris Ballard who was hired in 2017 fired Chuck Pagano. Now, originally, Ballard had New England Patriots’ OC, Josh McDaniels, lined up to coach this team, but McDaniels pulled out his name at the last second leaving Ballard and the Colts high and dry. So, he went to the Super Bowl Champs in Philly to grab OC Frank Reich. Reich will likely implement a similar KC/Philly West Coast style attack. He brought in Nick Siranni as OC from the Chargers (where Reich was before Philly) – Siranni is unproven, so it is hard to say what his philosophy will be, but I’d say Reich may be the real OC here. With QB Andrew Luck back and healthy, they will throw the ball. However, upgrades on the offensive line since Luck took a snap in 2016 may point to more balance and less chance of re-injury for Luck. On defense, the Colts have been bad for a while now. A lack of commitment to stop the run and poor cover CBs have led to poor numbers for several years. Reich has brought in another newbie at DC in Matt Eberflus who comes out of the Cowboys system. It is anyone’s guess what system he will run, but the Cowboys ran a 4-3 with quality edge rushers, so there is your clue. The Colts need improved play on defense to be competitive.
The Colts are a bit different than last year. On offense, the Colts said good bye to veteran and vampire RB, Frank Gore who went to Miami and WR Donte Moncrief went to the Jags, as noted above. The Colts did not add a bellcow type RB with Gore gone – they will go with Marlon Mack and Robert Turbin. However, they did upgrade the Offensive Line with the 1st Round pick – Quenton Nelson, the best OG in the Draft. He may be the best player in the Top 10 this year, so he should improve both the run game and pass protection, immediately. The Colts did also draft a speedy RB for 3rd down action in Nyheim Hynes from NC State. The Colts signed the back up from Washington, WR Ryan Grant for Moncrief and added an actual weapon in TE Eric Ebron who will play with veteran Jack Doyle. Besides TY Hilton at WR, Ebron could be the 2nd most targeted receiver in this offense. On defense, CB Vontae Davis moves on to Buffalo, which is the only notable departure on this terrible unit. The Colts did draft 2 players who will step in immediately with Kemoko Turay at DE out of Rutgers and Darius Leonard at LB out of South Carolina State. They used another 2nd round pick for DT Tyquan Lewis out of Ohio State for depth in the line. If the Colts are to improve, the defense has to be a lot better. Sure, with Luck back, they may be able to score more points, however outside of TY Hilton, I do not like their WRs. I think this will be a tough year for the Colts. They can get better in the future, but I can’t see them ascending in the division.
Prediction: Colts will finish 4th in the AFC South and miss the playoffs – 6 wins maximum.
There is your AFC South. A competitive division for sure, but at the moment, I see one playoff team with 2 others on the fringe.
Who do you like?
Wegs