Alright, we have covered the basics of Fantasy Football in 101, Terms and Elements in 102, General Draft Strategies in 201, now it is time to dig a bit deeper into analyzing each position and what we are looking for in a player.

Positions of Interest:  RB, WR, QB and TE – we are not going to spend a lot of time on the Defense/Special Teams or Kickers here.  You can if you’d like, but as I’ve stated before – get any expert’s list for these positions and select the top one in your 2nd to last and last round.  Not too much thought going there.  For each position group, I’m going to outline the following:  Importance of the Position, Key Factors in selecting a player at the position, and How many players to select at the position in your draft (which helps you come up with your list).

Running Backs:

I’m going to stress this a lot.  Running Backs are THE most important position in Fantasy Football.  There are several reasons.  1) The position gets the ball more than anyone else on the field (except QB, more on that later).  2) The positional scarcity at the position demands that you address it early and often in the Draft.  3) Injuries abound at the position, so you have to have depth at the position more than any other.  4) Week to week, the consistency of scoring is better than really all positions and predictability leads to fantasy success.  So, how do we identify which RB we want to target?

There are many key factors in determining which RB to take.

  • Health – the #1 factor is health or availability – as the adage says, “The most important ability is availability.”  It may seem obvious you want to take a healthy player.  However, you need to see, prior to the Draft, if a player is practicing or on the injury report already in training camp.  Is the player coming off an injury?  How will that injury affect their production this year?  Take David Johnson, RB, of the Cardinals.  He had a wrist injury last year, which should not affect his ability to run or catch the ball this year.  Yet, he has fallen from #1 on the Board in 2017 to #5 or #6 in 2018.  That is more perception than reality, but his “value” has dropped because he was injured last year.  We have already had injuries in camp, so stay abreast of injury news on your league’s website, but the best way to keep track is by following an NFL insider like Adam Scheffter or Ian Rappaport on Twitter.  You can get up to the minute updates on injuries there.
  • Usage – Usage means how often a running back will get the ball.  So, the key term for RBs is “touches.”  Top RBs will get more than 20 touches a game, and the Elite guys close to 30.  Now, the way to figure out if a team is going to give a guy a “heavy workload” is by reading beat reporters articles, following those guys on Twitter and just looking at the depth chart.  What you need to avoid at this position is the classic and very common “Running Back by Committee” approach a lot of teams use.  Why?  Well, if your guy is getting 60% of the touches, and the next guy drafted gets 75%, then the 2nd guy will likely out-produce him.  So, early in deciding between top guys, take a look at the projected usage or last year’s usage if using the same system.  Later on in the Draft, you can look at guys who could step into big roles if an injury occurs.
  • Scheme – The given team may have a scheme that favors RBs over other positions.  Look at Dallas, Dallas is a “run heavy” approach.  So, you know Zeke Elliott is going to have a ton of usage there.  Plus, the commitment to the run will be there regardless of how the game is going or “Game Script.”  Other systems may use a RB by Committee Approach, but use the RBs so much in running and the passing game.  I’m thinking of the Kyle Shanahan system in SF here.  He has been very well known for making very good RB fantasy seasons in Houston, Atlanta and now in SF.  Finally, on the flip side, you should stay away from certain systems that use so many specialized RBs – the Patriots are the classic team that I avoid.  Yes, they may have 1 or 2 Top RBs at the end of the season, however good luck in figuring out who you want to start week to week.  I like to avoid those types of situations over predictable usage and schemes.
  • Skill Set – Now, you can see that the individual player’s skill is the 4th most important factor.  Why?  Well, the RB position like no other is more dependent on other factors than skill.  Yet, you can differentiate within a tier of players on this category.  I like players that can do it all – run, catch, and block.  If a player is multi-talented, then they are more likely to stay on the field.  If the RB “struggles in pass protection,” then most coaches will opt for other players in passing situations.  That is why the RBs at the top of the Draft Board are so valuable.  They will virtually not leave the field because they can catch the ball as well as run it between the tackles.  Now, depending on format (PPR vs Standard), I do tend to take receiving RBs over a pure runner.  If you have a RB who is only going to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down, then leave the field, then I often will opt for a player who is in a high passing offense and the 3rd down back.  Why?  Well, there are bigger plays in the passing game than running game.  Plus, in a PPR format, every catch will yield an additional point, which provides you a good Floor for that type of player.  Now, some teams who employ this strategy of 1st and 2nd down backs, then a 3rd down receiving back, will then kill the value of the 1st guy by bringing in a “short yard” back at the goal line to “vulture” the TD from the other guys.  Again, I tried to avoid these backfields all together.  I like predictable usage in a RB led scheme.  I like my guy who runs the ball 1st and 2nd to to get at least an even shot at TD inside the 10 yard line.  This is where watching the pre-season, listening to team reports and mostly looking at how the coach staff/scheme used RBs in the past comes in handy.
  • Offensive Line – The last factor, which really plays into the 2nd and 3rd factor above, is a real difference maker over the course of a season.  If I have a choice between a team with a great offensive line – think Dallas in past years or maybe the Buffalo last year – and an average one, then you take the RB with the better line.  Now, typically, if they have a better offensive line, the scheme may play to that.  However, all things being equal, you want a team that has a good reputation on the line and good health, which will lead to success for the RB.
  • Age – It’s not a hard fast rule, but RBs who at 30 or older typically fall off the cliff (except for you, Frank Gore).  I favor the younger guys a lot at this position.  I like rookies, especially in the middle rounds.  I like the younger guy if picking between 2 – now I define younger as 26 or less.  So, if you have a seasoned, LeSean McCoy vs a Joe Mixon with similar projected usage, maybe scheme for McCoy, but skill sets are similar – then I take Mixon (of course McCoy may also get suspended which falls under health/availability).  Take the ascending player.  Be a year early on letting a player go, rather than a year late – that’s right Demarco Murray, I’m talking to you last year.

Ok, to review, we want RBs who are healthy, usage more than 20 times a game, in a scheme that favors the RB, can do everything on the field with the best offensive line possible and younger.  From there, you can discount other RBs off of the top ones this way.

How many RBs should you draft?  Well, that does depend on your league.  If they have roster and position limits, than you do not have a choice.  In a roster constrained league, I like to select 2 clear starters (one stud in the 1st round and another poor man’s RB who will get the ball a lot), then have your 1st round guy’s handcuff and one upside back who could break into the starting lineup mid-season.  Now, you will have to be aware of bye week’s and hopefully, you can rotate that upside slot on your bench during the season.  However, that is how you would attack a 4 RB slot league.  If they do not limit your RBs, then I would take a minimum of 5 in a 15 player roster and up to 6 or more in larger rosters.  Why?  The position is going to see attrition.  You will have injuries, demotions, suspensions, etc.  It is hard to replace those guys on the waiver wire because everyone wants the replacement backs.  So, beat your league to the punch and draft them and hold them.  I would always rather have another RB on my bench than a second – TE, DST or K, and often QB.  If you can find a way to hold onto that upside guy you’ve identified in training camp like Jeremy Hill (his rookie year) and Alvin Kamara (last year), then you will probably win your league and look like a genius.  So, take RBs early and often – definitely in Round 1 or no doubt Round 2, if you took a top WR, then at least 3 in the 1st 5 rounds.

Wide Receivers

The next most important position in Fantasy is the Wide Receiver.  The value of the WR has gone up in recent years with a bit of dip this year mainly because there are so many options at the position.  Unlike RBs, you can find quality WRs at really any point of the Draft.  Now, depending on your format, you will still want to address the position early.  However, after the Top 10 WRs or so, the difference between WR11 and WR30 is not that pronounced, where RB11 and RB30 might as well be another universe, in terms of production.  The value overall of the position has gone up since the early days of Fantasy since the league has become so pass heavy.  So, WRs, in general, can score a ton, and if you are in a PPR league, they are really on par with most RBs.

Key Factors for WRs:

  • Targets/Targets/Targets – The most important factor for a WR is the targets they get in a year.  Now, it is not possible to predict the exact number, but many of the top WRs have received a predictable range of targets.  Targets do not translate 1 for 1 to receptions, but the guys who get over 100 targets a year and the elite closer to 150 are going to be the best guys.  It’s that simple.
  • Red Zone Targets – An off shoot of the Targets number is the number of shots they get in the Red Zone.  For the novice, the Red Zone is inside the 20 yard line.  TDs are fluky and can go up and down year to year, but if a player consistently gets targets in the Red Zone for their offense, then they will score at some point.  I like guys that are not just target machines inside the 20s, but in the Red Zone.  A TD is worth 60 yards receiving, which is a full game production for most.  So, I will chose a red zone target guy over a possession guy almost every time – unless it is a PPR league.
  • Scheme – Now, of course, the number of targets and red zone targets will depend on the scheme.  However, every team will pass the ball.  Unlike the RB position where scheme can really help or hurt, a WR can survive in a low volume passing attack given they are the #1 target.  However, the scheme matters a lot more for the 2nd WR on a team or if a 2nd or even 3rd WR can be viable because a team tends to pass in the Red Zone vs. run.  So, to me, if I identify a high volume passing attack that can make a 2nd WR viable, then I will target those guys in the mid-rounds over other positions.
  • Traits – I do like to take WRs that have at least one elite trait whether that be speed, great vertical leap, incredible hands or size (catch radius). There are a lot of WRs in the league. To differentiate the position, you have to pick a guy who can make the big play or catch the ball in traffic.  I would say my order of these traits are:  Route Running, Hands, Speed, Size/Catch Radius, and then Vertical Leap.  A good route runner can always get open.  A guy with great hands can catch the ball in any type of situation.  You can look at a guy’s catch ratio to see some of these things or if a site charts “Drops.”  Now, the size and vertical often come into play in the Red Zone.
  • QB – Now, people have to look at the QB throwing the ball to judge if the WR will be ultimately successful.  Tom Brady is the most accurate ever.  Joe Flacco can’t hit anyone.  So, by default, I’ll take a Pats guy over a Ravens guy.  It really fits hand and hand with the scheme, in a way, but scheme will often still run the same concepts but the QB needs to be able to make the throws that matter.  Look at Sammy Watkins last year, Jared Goff improved in the Rams offense under Sean McVay, but he rarely got to his 3rd read in the offense (which was Watkins on the backside).  Watkins was terrible all year.  The scheme was great, but the QB was inexperienced and couldn’t or wasn’t willing to make that throw.

For WR, we want they guys who will get the most targets, especially if in the Red Zone, fit in a scheme that throws the ball a lot, displays several traits to the position and with a QB who can get them the ball consistently.

How may WRs do I draft?  At WR, I am definitely highly invested in my top 2 WRs selected.  I want 2 starters in the 1st 5 picks at the position.  No doubt starters and preferably the #1 target on their offense.  After that, I’m willing to speculate on guys who may breakout.  What I want is consistency at this position.  I do not want the boom or bust guy – the Ted Ginn who catches 2 TDs one week and 1 catch for 17 the next week.  I want my WRs to have a high floor and ability to exceed that with a ceiling game here or there.  So, after those 2 guys, I look to add 2 more on most teams unless it is a 3 WR league or flex.  WRs can win you a week for sure with a great game, but more often than not, they will lose it with a Zero or sub-par score.  I have no tolerance for low scoring weeks at any position, so I will target guys I think have a chance to be a really good #2 on a high volume passing attack or a younger ascending player that may breakout.  The good thing with WR, in most leagues, you will find quality guys to plug in and get you a decent amount of points off the waiver wire each week.  So, that is why locking up 2 top guys in the early rounds is so important.

Quarterbacks

Now, make no mistake about it, the QB is the most important position on the football field.  The QB touches the ball every play no matter what.  So, of course, it is a key position in Fantasy.  However, given that the league is all about passing, the rules favor passing, and the scoring systems typically favor QBs, all QBs will score the most points in your league.  In fact, it is rare in a given year that any other position will lead your league in scoring besides a QB.  So, rest assured, the position is critical to winning a championship in Fantasy, but you may be surprised who that would be.

Key QB Factors

  • Scheme – Rare that I would start here, but you have to look at the scheme a QB is playing in first.  Yes, there are elite throwers of the ball that shine over the rest, however the pass ratio of a team is really the most critical factor.  Now, Carson Wentz with Philly almost defied this tenet as the was so efficient in the Red Zone.  However, the teams that pass the ball the most typically have the highest scoring QBs.  Now, other schemes also employ the running QB – Carolina, Seattle, etc.  Those schemes also will yield high QB scores, and given your scoring system, you need to factor in how often your QB will run.  Running QBs are gold in Fantasy.
  • Weapons – QBs cannot score without their teammates (except for running QBs).  You have to look at who the QB is throwing to in the offense.  If they have playmakers at RB, WR and TE who all catch the ball well, then that QB will likely be successful.  Rare is the QB – look at Tom Brady – who can make anyone look good.  Most QBs are dependent on their guys or weapons they have at their disposal.  It is also the difference between a good scheme and great fantasy year.
  • Running Ability – Now, I’ve already said that the scheme could incorporate running into it.  However, the ability for a QB to escape pressure is critical.  Also, a QB that can pick up just 20 yards a game on the ground is equivalent to 50 more passing yards in most league scoring systems.  If a QB is likely to run for TDs, then that carves off more passing yards needed to be successful.  That is why Cam Newton is such a fantasy stud, he scores TDs on the ground a lot.  Even guys like Alex Smith, have very deceptive fantasy value because he runs a lot for 1st downs and will score 3 times a year.
  • Red Zone Efficiency – Not every QB playing today has a track record to go off of, but the most valuable QBs are the ones that can get the ball in the end zone.  TDs are king for the QB.  Sure, all QBs will score because so many will pass for 250 yards or more, but add 2 TDs or like Wentz last year 3/game, and you have Fantasy gold.  A QB can definitely win your week for you.  In some cases, they can carry you all season.  However, you will not win a Fantasy Championship on QB alone – only if Cam Newton goes off like 3 years ago.  For the most part, the trick is finding those guys later who can still put the ball in the end zone.
  • Accuracy – The last factor is the QB accuracy.  You may think it doesn’t matter since yards are yards and TDs are TDs.  However, in selecting between 2 guys, you need to pick the guy who is more accurate for 2 reasons.  Inaccurate QBs often turn the ball over more (which is negative points), but also accurate QBs will keep the drive alive.  I want a guy who can hit his target and keep his team moving for me, not a guy who just chucks it deep for 3 and outs too much.

To review, I want QBs who are in a scheme conducive for high fantasy totals either high passing attempts or mixed running of the QB with plenty of weapons, ideally with running ability for extra points that are very efficient in the red zone with no accuracy issues.

How many QBs?  For me, QB is a place I can gain an advantage on the competition.  I mean that while other owners take Aaron Rodgers (who is great) in the 2nd round, I’ll take a Top WR, and while others will stretch to take Russell Wilson in the 3rd or 4th, I’ll take my 2nd starting RB.  Let the competition reach for QB, the difference between those guys and this year’s Alex Smith or Carson Wentz both drafted really late are there for you.  Wait as long as humanly possible to take a QB in every format except for 2 QB or Super Flex leagues.  Also, early in the season, I would opt for taking 1 QB only on the roster.  Of course, some leagues make you take 2, but if they do, then wait even more on the 2nd one.  The only time I would draft a 2nd QB is if I waited so long that I don’t think my starter can give me Top 10 production, then take another Top 15 guy and do a match up play on your 2 QBs.  The only problem with this strategy is you will inevitably pick the wrong week to start them.  That is why I like my 1 QB strategy whenever possible to lock in decent to good production and solidify the rest of my team.  Do not handcuff your QB.  That is not necessary and a waste of roster space.

Tight Ends

The Tight End is one of those positions that can win you a championship some years and be the bane of your existence in others.  For Draft purposes, the TE is not a very hot commodity.  I would say that the Tight End is the least favorite position for owners to draft and there are only a few guys that really pique interest.  Still, the goal is to pick a guy who will get you solid, predictable production.  In a standard format, you are talking about 70 yards a week or a TD every week, which some TEs can do.

TE Key Factors

  • Elite Ability – Like I said, there are only 3 guys you really need to stretch for this year – Gronk, Kelce and Ertz.  They all are fast, great hands and can run good routes.  There are other TEs in the league that have these attributes, so there are targets later that could match these guys in production but if they have those abilities, you have a shot.
  • Scheme – You have to look at how the TE is used in the offense.  Some offenses use the TE as a blocker first and then a receiver.  Others designate one TE as a blocker and the other a receiver – like Philly with Ertz and KC with Kelce.  Does the QB spread the ball around to all targets including the TE or just wait until inside the 10 yard line.  Scheme really matters when picking the not so desirable guys off the wire or later in drafts.
  • Opportunity – Like scheme, the number of targets a TE will get as a predictive measure in the offense is really important.  TEs need chances to catch the ball.  You cannot rely on the one Red Zone target every week to get you your points.  So, of course, we want TEs who get targets in their offense.
  • Red Zone Targets – The last and really very important factor is will the TE get red zone looks.  This can make or break your week if you have to stream TEs.  When I stream, I look at the QB with the greatest likelihood of scoring that week.  The same can come on Draft Day – which TEs will get Red Zone looks.  For years, Ertz was the between the 20s TE in Philly with Brent Celek getting red zone work, like a TD vulture RB.  Last year, Ertz went from good to elite because he got those looks and converted.

So, we want TEs with elite ability on the field in a scheme that looks for the TE with plenty of actual targets and especially red zone targets.

How may TEs?  So, depending on your draft position, then you may be able to just grab one TE, which is ideal.  If you take any of the Top 3 guys, then no need to draft a 2nd TE.  Even if you get a Top 7 guy – Delanie Walker -TEN, Evan Engram – NYG, Greg Olsen – CAR and maybe Jimmy Graham – GB, then you really don’t need a 2nd TE.  After that, I can see you picking 2 upside TEs really late in the draft like George Kittle – SF and David Njoku – CLE to just play match ups.  However, the goal is always to get to just 1 guy, so you can have the rest of your roster to pick up potential lottery ticket RBs and WRs.

So, to review, ideal composition by position would be 1 QB, 6 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, and 1 K.  If you have more slots, then more WRs.  Come the bye weeks, you can manage to pickup a QB, TE, DST or K by dropping the non-producing RB or WR on your team.

Alright, we are getting close to the biggest draft week of the year.  One more week and post with my Top 150 players, and you should be ready for your Draft.

Let me know if you have questions now.

Wegs

 

 

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.