We continue to preview the NFL division by division. The next one in line is my favorite and home to the Beloved Bears – the NFC North – affectionately known as the Black and Blue Division.
NFC North History
The NFC North is one the traditional divisions in the NFL. All 4 teams in the division were original NFL teams, meaning, none came over from the AFL merger. Also, the “youngest” team in the division is the Minnesota Vikings that debuted in the 1961 season. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears were 2 of the founding members of the NFL, so this division has history by the truck load. Now, why is it called the Black and Blue Division? Well, back in the day, the division was known for its ferocious style of play, especially on defense. With the likes of great LBs like Dick Butkus, Ray Nitschke, the Purple People Eaters (Minnesota’s vaunted front four) and even the Lion great, Joe Schmidt, the division left the teams bruised at the end of every season. Of course, Vince Lombardi led the Green Bay Packers to back to back Super Bowl titles when the Super Bowl first started in 1966 and 1967. So, the division set the tone for the new NFL back then. However, besides those early successes, the division has only won 3 other Super Bowls – the storied 1985 Bears, the Brett Favre led Packers in 1996, and Aaron Rodgers took the Pack to the title in 2010. Unfortunately, the Vikings have been 0-4 in the Super Bowl and have not reached the big game since 1976. Detroit has not won a title since 1957 (pre-Super Bowl era) and have not reach an NFC Championship Game since Barry Sanders in 1991.
In recent years, the NFC North has been mostly dominated by the Green Bay Packers. The Packers won the division 4 straight years from 2011-2014, then again in 2016. The Vikings have taken the division in 2015 and 2017, and they are right there with Green Bay again this year. The Bears have not make the playoffs since losing to the Packers in the NFC Championship Game at home (Soldier Field) in 2010 – the Pack’s last championship. Detroit have made the playoffs as a Wild Card in 2011, 2014, and 2016, but lost all three of those games and have not won a playoff game since 1991.
Team Breakdown
Minnesota Vikings – Team Basics: The Vikings front office has done an outstanding job of drafting over the past few years. The results have been fruitful. The Vikings Defense is the heart of their team. This unit ranked #1 in most categories last year, and this year should not be much different. The Vikings play a classic 4-3 with great edge rushers, fast linebackers and one of the best secondaries in football. Perhaps not household names in the media, trust me when I say they have one of the best defenses at all levels in the league. On offense, there was a big change at both the coaching level and at QB. It is hard to see the impact on the playcalling with new OC, John DiFillippo. He comes from the Eagles, so perhaps they will use more RPO concepts or a more West Coast influence. Last year, the Vikings had a varied attack under now Giants’ Head Coach, Pat Shurmur. The Vikings have 2 talented WRs along with a 2nd year RB returning from an ACL injury in Dalvin Cook. So, I think they will be as competitive as anyone on offense, too.
The Vikings did not make a ton of changes in the off season, however they made some big ones. QB Case Keenum took this team to the NFC Title Game, but were trounced in the game, so the Vikings decided to let Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Bradford all go for Washington’s Kirk Cousins. That can be seen as an upgrade, but it’s not like Cousins is Tom Brady. Denver’s Trevor Simian was signed as the back up. The Vikings did lock up WR Stefon Diggs (the Minnesota Miracle WR) to a long term deal. For the most part, the offense is the exact same besides QB, but they do get back 2nd Year RB Dalvin Cook who tore his ACL mid-season after starting very strong. The Vikings did let RB Jerrick McKinnon go in free agency, as McKinnon is now the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL. On defense, the top rated group may have gotten even better. The Vikings signed skilled DT Sheldon Richardson from Seattle. They also re-signed veteran CB Terrance Newman and exercised their 5th year option with CB Trae Waynes. The Vikings continued to build in the draft with very highly rated CB Mike Hughes from Central Florida and adding to the offensive line with OT Brian O’Neill from Pittsburgh. So, the Vikings did get better, and didn’t lose anyone major. They should be one of the best in the NFC again.
Prediction: Vikings win the division again and are a threat for the NFC Championship.
Green Bay Packers – Team Basics: The Packers as noted above have dominated this division for the most part. However, the key for their success boils down to the health of #12. In 2017, the Packers faltered once former MVP, Aaron Rodgers, went down for the season. Backup Brett Hundley was not good enough. The Packers have relied heavily on the arm and savvy of Rodgers. Offensively, the Pack run a modified West Coast offense with multiple formations and tend to throw the ball more often than run. The Pack have made some coaching changes this year with former Miami head coach, Joe Philbin stepping in at OC. With Rodgers and maybe a fresher look under Philbin, they should be a top group. I do want to see if the Green Bay RBs are able to balance the offense. With Aaron Jones suspended to start the season. On defense, the Packers run a blitzing 3-4 style. Former Cleveland head coach, Mike Pettine, steps in at DC. The Packers have struggled in the last 2 seasons to stop anyone. However, the structure of the defense will remain unchanged, but Pettine will likely push this group to bigger success.
The Packers besides the coaching changes made a move in the front office, too. Now GM, Brian Gutekunst, replaces Ted Thompson, and he got to work. On offense, the Packers lose the accomplished WR Jordy Nelson to the Raiders, TE Richard Rodgers, but Gutekunst picked up TE Jimmy Graham from Seattle and the veteran TE Marcedes Lewis from the Jags. Plus, they traded for Deshone Kiser, 2nd Year QB from Cleveland and picked up some later picks. On Defense, which needed work, didn’t lose much, but they worked on their secondary. First, they signed former Packer Tramon Willams from Arizona and Muhammad Wilkerson, the talented DT/DE from the Jets. In the draft, the Pack took 2 top CBs in the draft with Zaire Alexander from Louisville and the lengthy CB from Iowa Joshua Jackson. It looks like the Packers are trying to address their greatest weaknesses. They will always have a chance if Rodgers is healthy.
Prediction: Packers finish 2nd in the NFC North and will make the playoffs as a Wild Card.
Chicago Bears – Team Basics: The Bears have been in “rebuild” mode for 4 straight years. GM Ryan Pace is firmly on the hot seat, despite the contract extension. In firing Coach John Fox, the Bears management has allowed Pace to pick one more horse. This time Pace turned to former Kansas City OC Matt Nagy who will bring the Andy Reid, West Coast diversified offense to the table. Kansas City has been very dynamic in recent years using speed at nearly all positions to create match up problems all over the field, and the Bears are trying to replicate that. Plus, with a decently mobile QB like 2nd year man Trubisky, you may seem a replication of RPOs in this offense like when Alex Smith did it in KC. Nagy made a smart move to retain DC Vic Fangio who lead the Bears to a top 10 finish. The Bears play a classic 4-3 alignment with plenty of blitzing along the front. However, the Bears may have been solid, but lacked the big play and turnovers of an elite unit. This year the Bears need 3rd year 1st Rounder, Leonard Floyd, the lanky pass rusher.
The Bears made a lot of off season moves. On offense, the Bears WRs were terrible last year, and Pace made wholesale changes for his young signal caller. The Bears let Cameron Meredith walk who went to New Orleans, Kendall Wright who signed with Minnesota, and cut Markus Wheaton. In their place, they signed Jacksonville top target Allen Robinson who is coming off an ACL reconstruction. They signed former Atlanta deep threat Taylor Gabriel. In addition, the Bears spent money on former back up TE from Philly, Trey Burton, who should thrive in this offense alongside the 2nd year TE Adam Shaheen. The Bears also signed veteran OG Eric Kush, as the Bears let Josh Sitton go, and drafted top Guard/Center, James Daniels from Iowa. Finally, the Bears also selected small school WR Anthony Miller from Memphis who is dazzling in camp. So, the Bears have greatly improved on offense. On defense, the Bears parted ways with pass rushers, Willie Young and Parnell McPhee. In addition, the Bears released Jerell Freeman at LB, CBs Quentin Demps and Marcus Cooper. The Bears did select the best inside LB Roquan Smith from Georgia, however he still remains unsigned to date. They did not make major additions in the secondary to a unit that lacked interceptions, but did tag CB Kyle Fuller. So, I still think that secondary is the weakness of the team. The Bears should improve this year.
Prediction: Bears will finish 3rd in the NFC North and hover around .500.
Detroit Lions – Team Basics: The Lions are trying to get off of the conveyor belt of average success. With moderate success under Jim Caldwell, the Lions brass wanted real success. They turned to long time Patriots’ DC, Matt Patricia. Patricia is as sharp an NFL mind as their is. He followed the Patriot model of scheme over talent, so he is not used to coaching top players. It is going to be interesting to see if he will follow the same model as the Pats. On offense, QB Matthew Stafford has been very good for several years and Patricia retained OC Jim Bob Cooter, so I would expect the same dink and dunk style offense. However, Patricia did opt to beef up the RB position (more on that in a minute). On defense, the lions have been ho hum. It is likely to switch to a 3-4 system eventually, but the current personnel is a 4-3. Paul Pasqualoni is the new DC who is a 46 year coaching professional and most recently at Boston College. It appears Patricia will call the defense. So, I would expect a much more exotic and game plan specific approach than past seasons in Detroit.
Detroit did not do huge, but more subtle changes. On offense, the Lions allow underachieving TE Eric Ebron go to the Indianapolis Colts. No other major departures, but they added former Patriot and Eagles RB Legarrette Blount and drafted the talented Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson, which may indicate a more balanced approach than the past 2 seasons under Cooter at OC. The Lions also drafted Arkansas Center Frank Ragnow, who will slate as Guard. To replace Ebron, they pick up 2 not so touted Luke Wilson from Seattle and Levine Toilolo from Atlanta. On defense, there were virtually no changes. So, it appears that Patricia is going to just change the scheme to fit his personnel and maximize results. When healthy, the Lions defense can be tough, but no major draft picks on Defense, healthy is going to be critical again, as depth is an issue. I think the Lions will struggle this year.
Prediction: Lions will finish 4th in the NFC North and in a competitive division will struggle to win 7 games.
Ok, I was delayed on this post. I’m going to try and get a 2nd division preview out this week along with another Fantasy post.
Who do you like in the NFC North?
Wegs
Another great article, Wegs. Kudos on a good well done and all the fantastic content on your website, especially the fantasy football articles which have been a great refresher for me. I think your’re spot on with your assessment of the Black & Blue division. Here’s my Bears Win-Loss projections for the year:
Week 1 @ Green Bay – We pull of a shocker opening week in Lambeau Field. The front 7 harasses Mr. Rodgers into 1 mistake that turns the tide for our boys in navy blue & orange. Ole Mitch does just enough to outduel Rodgers, we get enough help from the running game and the defense bends but doesn’t break. We win 24-20.
Week 2 Home Opener vs Seattle – Coming off an impressive W vs the Packers, we crap the bed in a letdown game vs an underwhelming opponent that is no longer the powerhouse they used to be. The Hawks still have Russell Wilson though and he torches the secondary for 3 tds on the day despite constant heavy pressure from the d-line. The ecstasy of beating the Packers opening week is now far in the rear view mirror and the Bears continue to have trouble winning games at Soldier Field. Bad Loss 28-17.
Week 3 @ Arizona – Coming off a disheartening loss vs the Seahawks, Da Bears respond with a thrashing of the Cards in a game that has as many Bears fans as the home team. An all around great game from all 3 phases and we sit happy as can be at 2-1. If Sam Bradford starts this game, he won’t finish it as he’ll go through the routine of yet another injury on his resume. Plus I’ll be at this game so they better damn well win! Easy W 30-14.
Week 4 vs Tampa Bay – I don’t know what to make of the Bucs at this point. I want to say that we’ll win this game but they have some talent that should make this a close game. This feels like yet another letdown game against a beatable opponent. Ole Mitch has an uneven game and Winston hooks up with Mike Evans for a late TD that crushes our spirit. Yet another home loss in gut punch fashion. 17-14 loss and 2-2 on the season going into the bye week.
Week 6 @ Miami – We respond by getting our shit together during the bye week and taking out our frustrations on the Dolphins. Old OC Adam Gase sees his old team again but can not do enough to beat an up and coming Bears team. Plus the Dolphins are not very good. Ole Mitch wins the qb matchup vs Tannehill handily. Bears W 23-10 and 3 straight road victories.
Week 7 vs New England – Student meets Master. Tom Brady is somehow escaping Father Time and does what everyone expects and just dismantles our defense. Ole Mitch plays well but it’s hardly enough vs the Patriots Dynasty. Our home base witnesses yet another loss at Soldier Field. Ugh! It’s a blowout 35-21. 3-3 on this yo-yo season so far.
Week 8 vs New York Jets – Well what do ya know, a W for the home team! Woo-hoo! We finally get our first victory vs a decent Jets team that may be starting Sam Darnold by this point. Defense locks up the opposing offense and we lean on the run game to an easy win 24-7. Now 4-3 on the season.
Week 9 @ Buffalo – This could easily be a trap game but with uncertainty under center for the Bills and not much talent on offense the D again takes center stage. We rough up whoever is under center and Ole Mitch has one of his best and efficient games of the year. W 20-10 with a 5-3 record.
Week 10 vs Detroit – We officially leapfrog the Lions in the division and beat a team that has had our number in recent years but no more! This will be a back and forth affair but we pull away late. 2 straight home wins and the momentum is building for our beloved Bears. W 28-24 for a 6-3 record.
Week 11 vs Minnesota – Bonafide contender Vikings come to town hoping to make a statement and make a statement they do. Vikes D forces Ole Mitch into a couple of turnovers and they stuff the run game. Frustrating game to watch as the Vikes prove they are the team to beat in the NFC. Couple of garbage time tds make this game appear closer than it actually was. L 30-21 and back down to earth with a 6-4 record.
Week 12 @ Detroit – The early Thanksgiving game! And the host team plays the role of turkeys. At this point the Lions are slumping badly and that continues on through the holiday. Everything we did wrong one week prior we rectify in this one and we get a clean sweep of one of our nemesis. W 27-17 and up to a 7-4 record.
Week 13 @ New York Giants – Which Eli Manning will we face in this game? The one who will show his age, can’t move around in the pocket and can’t take advantage of his offensive weapons? Or the one reinvigorated by the new coaching staff, Odell’s healthy return, upgraded o-line and buoyed by dynamic rookie sensation Saquon Barkley? I will go with the latter. This is a winnable game but we lose it late. Plus we do have to lose at least once on the road, right? L 21-20 and back down to a 7-5 record.
Week 14 vs Los Angeles – This is simple, just too much damn talent on the Rams. The Bears are getting there as well but not yet. Gurley goes off and Goff plays game manager in this one with the weather affecting the game plan. L 23-14 and back to back losses for a 7-6 record.
Week 15 vs Green Bay – Mr. Rodgers gets his revenge in this one. Just hard to think we sweep the Packers at this point. If Aaron is out with injury then it’s a different story but assuming health we drop another home game. 3 straight losses put a dent in our playoff hopes. L 24-17 and down to a .500 record.
Week 16 @ San Francisco – We face another up and coming team but we come out ahead in this one. Both qb’s play well and prove that they are indeed franchise qb’s for their respective franchises. Defense makes a late stand. W 20-14 and we are in the wild card mix going into the last week.
Week 17 @ Minnesota – Very possible that the Vikings rest their starters in this one given that they should have the division locked up and their seed position secure. In that event, I will give our boys the W vs their backups in a meaningless game for the home team. We end the season on a high note with a 9-7 record but lose tiebreakers to leave us on the outside looking in for the playoffs.
This season will be full of high and lows but we’ll see significant growth from Ole Mitch and the defense will force more turnovers than usual and remain a top 10 unit. Do I really believe we’ll win 7 games on the road vs just 2 wins at home? Probably not but this is the NFL where stranger things have happened. I do think 8 or 9 wins is totally realistic and I do have playoff dreams in 2019!! A year of growth followed by a year of contention next year! BEAR DOWN!