This is Part 2 of a month long series to get everyone, including novices, for this year’s Fantasy Football season. Every week, I will put out a post to prep you to compete at a high level. Last week’s post, we focused on the types of formats and how players are selected (format-wise). Here is that post:
This week, we will focus on how to actually dig into creating rankings for yourself or at a minimum understand what the experts are talking about when you listen to podcasts or television programs.
Stats, Stats, Stats aka Projections
Fantasy Football is all about statistics. Now, most of the sites you will compete on CBS, ESPN, Yahoo or others, will have some statistics for every player you can draft. However, I really encourage you to use Excel and create your own system. Why? Well, all the analysts out there are making their own assumptions. They have dug through the data and decided either based on projections of the individuals’ stats or by simple preference to come up with their rankings. So, yes, we all will stand on the experts shoulders at some point. However, you may have your own interpretations of how a team will succeed or a player in a new system. Plus, every league has a unique scoring system. Your rankings should reflect YOUR scoring system and not the standard of the site you are playing. Back in the Dark Ages of Fantasy, there were magazines, but my 1st 2 seasons, I poured through the previous year’s statistics and did the math on how they did against my scoring system. Today, you can simply copy the stats from ESPN online and copy into Excel. Then, you can set up simple formulas to get the points.
Here is a simple example for a QB:
QB 1 – 250 Completions, 400 Attempts, 3600 Yards, 25 Touchdowns, 14 Interceptions, 150 Rushing Yards, 1 Rushing TD, 4 Fumbles
Now, every league will value TDs and INTs/Fumbles differently. Some leagues give you points per completion. I also like to see how efficient a QB is, so putting the info on the sheet with Completions and Attempts are a good way to compare like players.
Formula in Excel would be Total Points = Yard Points/25 (3600/25) + Passing TDs*6 or 4 (25*6) – Interceptions*2 (14*2) + Rushing Yards/10 (150/10) + Rushing TDs*6 (1*6) – Fumbles Lost *2 (4*2)
This QB would score 279 points. Now, if you want to do even more work, then go ahead and do a 3 year average for every player. Mind you, this is a lot more work, mainly pulling all the data, but going back 3 years will get you a much more normalized measure for performance.
For me, I use last year’s data as a baseline. I then do not change the Formula column and put in my own projections for the player based on more of gut instinct. For example, if you stick to last year’s performance specifically, then a guy like Dallas RB, Zeke Elliott, would be too low (he was suspended for 6 games). The same can be said for guys who have switched teams – Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins, for example, the Vikings will probably be a lot more balanced than Washington was last year for Cousins. Also, you have to take some chances for yourself, for younger players in the 2nd or 3rd year, those guys often take a jump in performance.
So, it is not a complete science when making your projections. However, I think doing this exercise will yield 2 main results:
- Know How Players Score: You will be more acquainted with how a given player scores their points. For new people, it’s important to see how a players scores period, but looking at 2 guys in the same range – Andrew Luck, Colt QB gets his points a lot different (mostly passing yards and passing TDs) than say, Carolina QB Cam Newton (more rushing yards and rushing TDs). You can adjust and guess how a decline or increase for these players would change their projection.
- Grouping or “Tiering” Players – the ultimate goal of doing projections is to put players together by position in a grouping. These groupings are called Tiers. When you see how a player will score and how they stack up against other players, then you can see that several players will be in the same range. When we get to drafting, it is important to tier players, so you know the real value of a player against their cohort group and then you can decide within that group who you like the best.
Ceilings and Floors
Now, I’m a projection guy. It has always been a great way for me to learn the players again. I will look at other sites to see if my expectations match up to the “experts,” however projections are just numbers. A more practical method of ranking your players is looking at a range of outcomes for each player. You do not have to be so statistical or scientific here. All you have to do is look at the range of outcomes for a player.
Ceiling aka Upside
The Ceiling a player has is really how high could their projection be on the season. A high ceiling player will be the highest scoring player at each position. Of course, looking at a player’s Ceiling or Upside is the best case scenario for a player. You still want to look at past performance to determine what that could be, however if you think a player is going to have their best season, then it will be a Ceiling year. We all, as Fantasy Players, fall into the trap of loving the upside possibilities while not looking at the other side of the coin. However, in evaluating players, you need to at least mentally rate their Ceiling to see how high they will go in the Draft. High Ceiling players are typically players who will score a lot of TDs or completely breakout for their teams.
Floor or Downside
The Floor for a player is low the player will perform. More appropriately, the Floor is really the lowest reasonable level of performance you can accept. Every player has a Floor, but the valuable guys are players with a “High Floor” which means even if they are not scoring a ton of TDs or just crushing the competition, but they give you steady predictable production. High Floor players are often established veterans with a long track record of a given performance level. The classic – you know what this guy is going to give you – week in and week out or for the entire season. Now, the Low Floor players are guys who may need a lot or things to play out a certain way in order to be above a level you desire.
So, we really have 4 possible outcomes for players:
- Low Floor, Low Ceiling Players – These are the guys you really do not want to Draft or have on your team. Their base level performance is limited by several factors and unfortunately, their upside is capped, too. So, do not Draft these guys.
- Low Floor, High Ceiling Players – These are the high risk, high reward guys. Think a speedy WR who doesn’t catch a lot of passes, but can catch a 60-70 yard TD on any play. You can take a chance on these players in the middle or later in the Draft. However, I would not invest several picks to this type of player. In a Daily Contest, yes, you should invest in these players if you like the match, as the pricing will be worth it. However, for Standard – Season-Long leagues, you should only have 1-2 of these guys preferably on your bench until they get more consistent.
- High Floor, Low Ceiling Players – As others will say, these are the “not very sexy” players who produce the same amount consistently week over week. For me, I prefer to have a blend of these guys with the Low Floor, High Ceiling guys. You can always plug in a Low Ceiling guy to get the number of points they always do, but of course, you will not win a league with guys like this. The key is managing your roster throughout the year by activating these guys when you have to and hitting with the High Ceiling guys when they do go off.
- High Floor, High Ceiling Players – These are the crème de la crème in your league. These are the Top 25-30 players. For these players, you will consistently get good production as a Floor, but often they will go off and lead you to a win. The more players you have of this type, the more likely you will win some money in your league.
Again, the goal here is to evaluate players against each other. Once you come up with your “tiering” in Step 1 above, then you can differentiate within the tiers by a simple Ceiling vs Floor analysis. High/High players will always be better picks on Draft Day. Guys like Josh Gordon, Browns WR, is a great example of a High/Low guy. He has struggled with drug suspensions and will miss training camp for undisclosed reasons. Gordon had a monster year a few years ago, and Fantasy Owners have repeatedly gotten burned by the guy either via suspension or poor performance. So, as a result, his value has plummeted with the announcement him missing camp. Sure, someone may take him and win a league with him, if he comes back strong. However, you have to ask yourself what tolerance you have for the wide variability of results. I, personally, cannot do it. I need to be able to count on my players, so I value Floor sometimes even more than the pure upside guys.
Now, with that said, if you are in a “Best Ball” format, as discussed last time, then by all means pick more High Ceiling players, as they will count when they go off. Just know your format!
Ascending vs Descending
Like anything in life, the value of something goes up and down. In the NFL, players reach their peak performance at some point in their career. During any given season, a player is either Ascending to reach that peak or Descending from that peak. A player will, of course, play in their peak for a while, known as their Prime. A player’s Prime will depend on their position. The key to winning your fantasy league is picking players who will Ascend in this season, and to not pick players who descend or decline in performance. Identifying ascending players is not an exact science.
For example, RBs can be great in Year 1, but which ones will be. Running the football is very similar between college and the pros. The main difference at the position is pass protection – which doesn’t come into play in Fantasy directly, but can impact a player’s playing time. The other difference is catching the football. So, in RB terms, RBs come in at their peak or reach it very early in their careers. As a result, RBs typically Descend much earlier in their career. It is always better to give up on a player one year earlier than a year late – as RBs age, you should look to find younger players at the position, especially 6-8 years in the league. We will get more into Draft Strategy another week, but one tidbit here is that I like drafting at least 2 Rookie RBs in every draft. Rookie RBs may not start at the position in Week 1, but your goal for your team is to peak late in the season. The NFL has so many injuries, especially at RB, that having those younger guys on your roster/bench to plug in when they get their opportunity will win you a title. In 2014, my guy was Jeremy Hill then with Cincinnati (now with New England), Hill took the job mid-season and was great down the stretch – I drafted him in Round 9 or 10 – I won that title. Last year, the guy was Alvin Kamara, he was incredible after Week 5. He led me to a title last year.
For WR, the rule of thumb used to be the 3rd year is the “breakout” year. Why was this true? The NFL is so much more complicated in college in terms of players and reading coverages. For WRs to reach their peak, it is very rare for them to do so as a rookie. So, Ascending players at WR would be in Year 2-5. I think that Year 3 is still a good place to start. However, you will need to pay attention to training camp reports and also the system the player is playing in (especially if there was a coaching/system change). I would look at WRs under 32, in general, because after 32 injuries and loss of quickness come into play.
For QB, most guys do not hit their stride until several years in the league, like 4-5 years in. Rookies are almost never productive, since the NFL is too complicated a game for them. Carson Wentz broke the model with his Year 2 performance last year and Cam Newton did, too. However, since QBs play so much longer and maintain peak performance for a lot longer. Yes, some QBs descend or decline, but with modern training methods and nutrition along the rule changes are allowing QBs to be excellent in to their late 30s or even 40 (like Tom Brady). So, I would focus more on the systems than actual players in this position.
Finally, TE take a long time to get up to speed, too. The position requires more dual purposes with blocking that has no fantasy value, but if a TE cannot block well, then they won’t stay on the field. TEs typically ascend to their peak in Year 3 or 4, like WRs. Descent is near 30 years old, but there have been some players like Antonio Gates for the Chargers (who is supposed to play again at 38) and Jason Witten of Dallas just retired at 36. Those guys are/were the exceptions. So, finding an Ascending player at TE will help you win a league if you can time it correctly.
As I’ve written consistently Ascending vs Descending players will factor into deciding between players in a tier. I tend to take Ascending over Descending, especially after the Top 6 rounds when you are speculating anyway.
Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts
These are the terms you will see on most sites and discussed all over the internet. Who is this year’s “Sleeper”? Will Le’Veon Bell be a “Bust” this year? Who is going to Breakout?
So, what do they mean?
Sleeper – A Sleeper is a player who is not going to be highly regarded today, but that player will surprise because of the system or perhaps an opportunity change. Sleepers are drafted much later in the draft, and the hope is that the player will become a starter for you by the end of the year. The truth is that any player drafted after Round 7 can be a sleeper. The key to identifying a sleeper is really digging into the team’s depth chart and seeing who the player has to pass to get more opportunities and also if the system is conducive for the player to be a top player at their position. A classic sleeper is a guy who may be a little older or coming off an injury, so the value for the player has dropped to a point that you can take a chance and not lose too much if the player does not work out. I suppose you could consider late round rookie RBs, like Jeremy Hill in 2014 and Alvin Kamara in 2017. The bottom line is finding a guy in the late rounds that will be really useful for you. Realize that we are really talking about The Draft here, but as the season goes on past the Draft, the Waiver Wire (picking up Free Agents) is the best way to get your hands on Sleepers. Besides, Kamara last year who I drafted, I also picked up Minnesota WR Adam Thelien off waivers in Week 3 or 4. Well, he was a Top 10 guy.
Breakouts – The Breakout player is really more what we discussed above in Ascending players. Which player who has been good in past years will jump up to the Top 10 at their position. If you are drafting today, then often times the pre-draft hype for a player is built in to the price. However, in evaluating players, you should always try to make educated guesses on players who are going to take a leap forward. This can happen in any of the first 5 rounds. Again, I like players who are younger and getting a real opportunity or players who just got a better system for them. A good example of this was the Rams’ QB Jared Goff last year who was markedly better than his rookie year under a totally new system. He made a huge step forward, not into the Top 10, but he was really good. Other guys to identify are players who switched teams as a backup somewhere to become the starter. So, who can you pick up that will jump up to Fantasy elite from the middle of the pack.
Busts – A fantasy Bust is what you want to avoid. Busts are guys who you will take with a high pick – Top 3 or 4 rounds, but they will finish out of the Top 25 at their position or if they are a 1st Round guy will not be in the Top 10. There are several examples of busts over the years. Typically, a bust is from an early season injury or a player who falls off a cliff of performance (a Descending Player but all of a sudden). A good example of that last year was former Tennessee RB Demarco Murray last year. He was in the Top 5 in 2016, but 22nd in 2017. The more busts you can avoid in the Draft, the more likely you will be in contention for the playoffs. The NFL is wrought with injuries, but there are players that have lengthy injury histories, so try to avoid those guys. Also, if a guy has a pending suspension or been suspended repeatedly, that is another red flag. Finally, like the Breakouts, if there is a change in coaching staff or system that could hurt the player, in terms of fits, then that could also be a reason for a Bust. Your team can survive a bust on Draft Day, but again the Floor/Ceiling analysis is key to avoid an outright bust.
Alright, we have covered a lot of topics again. To get ready for your Drafts in August and September, you will need to get yourself a Draft list. I recommend doing your own projections to come up with Tiers of players. Once you have your tiers, then you can start to order within that tier based on Ceiling/Floor analysis, Ascending/Descending players, and finally who you like as a Sleeper or Breakout in different parts of the Draft and avoiding major Busts. We will dig into rankings and Draft strategy next week.
Wegs