Rejoice!! Rejoice!! The NFL season has officially started with teams beginning to report to training camp – the Ravens and Bears reported to camp last week (as they will play in the Hall of Fame Game – August 2nd) with the others reporting this week. Now, we can focus on the best sport the USA has to offer. The season will not start until the 1st full week in September (6th-9th), but there is no better season. Over the next 8 weeks, I will be providing a variety of content on the NFL (National Football League). That content will include the following: Divisional Previews outlining each team in the division for the entire league, Basic Terms and Strategies employed by the league and teams, Fantasy Football content – Top 150 lists, league formats, draft strategy, and finally predictions for the entire league – records, playoff teams and even Super Bowl prediction. Let’s get started.
Why is the NFL the best?
First and foremost, football is the most fun sport to watch on television. No other sport can be captured on the television from the multitude of angles than Football. In fact, I would say that football is almost better on television than in person. When you watch sports like baseball on television, you really can’t see 75% of the field. Hockey is much better in the HD era, but the speed and violence of the game cannot be captured on television – in person is way better. Basketball is the 2nd best sport on television, however the limited number of camera angles relative to football make it an inferior product. So, for me, the NFL specifically and football in general lends itself to viewing at home.
The next reason why the NFL is the best is that the season has real meaning. There are only 16 games in a season. This makes every game very valuable. A team can make a late season run, however if they just play terribly for the first Quarter of the season, the likelihood of reaching the playoffs is almost zero. In other sports that are 4 and 5 times longer, the early part of the season is almost meaningless. So, the NFL has it figured out where the length and quality of each game is really perfect to maintain fan attention. Not to mention there is only 1 game a week per team, so you can invest a finite amount of time to follow your team and get on with your work week. That is a big bonus.
Lastly, the sport itself is incredible. Sure, the NBA athlete is incredible – average guy is like 6’7″ and can jump extremely high and is very coordinated. However, the amount of speed, athleticism and skill on the football field is really unparalleled. I’m 5’11” and almost 200 lbs. That is an average to larger sized dude. In the NFL, I’d be the smallest guy on the field for most teams. Plus, the guys who are my size or smaller run so fast, it is incredible. In the world of speed, most guys on a football field besides the offensive line can all run under 4.6 in the 40 yard dash. I was a sprinter in high school and never cracked that speed. I was the fastest kid in my school, so that means that virtually everyone on the field is the fastest dude you ever met. Plus, they are strong as hell, and can catch a football or run backwards as fast as they can forwards. Finally, for those that have never played this game, football is the ultimate physical challenge between humans. Dudes running crazy fast crashing into one another at those speeds makes for some incredible collisions. The collisions are insane, but more importantly there is a form to it all. It isn’t mindless. The sport boasts the most tactical strategy than any other sport. Playbooks in the NFL are like college textbooks. So, NFL players have to be intelligent to absorb the schemes laid out on offense and defense and the game evolves constantly. For the novice viewer, it probably takes the better part of 5 seasons to understand half of what is going on out there. So, that is why there are programs on the NFL network and ESPN just showing how plays are designed. It is fascinating.
So, there you have it, the NFL is king for a reason (lots of them). Let’s start learning some teams.
Divisional Previews
So, for each NFL division, I’m going to give a brief overview of the team’s changes in the off season. What their strengths are on offense and defense are and finally key players for each team.
AFC East
Let’s start with one of the easier divisions to break down. The NFL is broken down in to 2 conferences – the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC). In each conference, you have 4 divisions with 4 teams in each division mostly along regional lines. Each conference has an East, North, South and West Division.
The AFC East is made up of the New England Patriots (Boston), New York Jets, Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills. Miami is the only team not really in the Northeast of the US, but Miami is a traditional rival with the other 3 teams for decades.
New England Patriots – Team Basics: On offense, the Patriots employ an open offense with multiple formations. The Patriots like no other team will completely change their game plan based on their opponent. Clearly, they have the immortal one, Tom Brady at Quarterback and can put 5 receiving options with no backs, but if they need to, they can line up and pound the ball with the running game. Defensively, the Patriots run a base 4-3 with 4 down linemen, however, the Pats, like on offense, will change their game plan to a hybrid 3-4 look which usually means more blitzing and exotic coverages.
The Pats have dominated this division since the advent of Tom Brady. In fact, they have only lost the division once in that time (when Brady was hurt in 2008). They currently have won the division 9 straight times. Coach Bill Belichick is the league’s best. The Pats have made it to at least the AFC Championship game in virtually every year the past decade. They won the Super Bowl in 2016 and lost to the Eagles in last year’s game. So, I can’t see them not winning this division again, as long as TB 12 is there (Tom Brady is #12). The Patriots had a lot of turnover in the off season. They let the very fast Brandin Cooks, WR, who they traded for in 2017 go to the Rams. In addition, they let fan favorite, WR – Danny Amendola, embattled CB- Malcolm Butler, oft injured RB- Dion Lewis and stalwart OL-Nate Solder go. That is the Patriot way, however. They do not pay players a lot and find gems on the waiver wire or via the draft. Key offensive additions to the team at WR with Jordan Matthews who spent time in Philly and Buffalo, the physically talented Kenny Britt and the versatile Cordarelle Patterson, they drafted a talented Offensive Guard in Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia and finally, the dynamic Running Back out of Georgia, Sony Michel. On defense, the Pats picked up the large Defensive Tackle Danny Shelton from Cleveland and they also signed Devin McCourty’s twin in Jason McCourty to take Malcolm Butler’s slot at Cornerback. The Patriots will continue using the same schemes on offense and defense, even with the departure of long time Defensive Coordinator, Matt Patricia (who is the new head coach of the Lions). Greg Schiano is rumored to be the new DC, but the Pats’ website has no one listed at present. To me, it doesn’t matter, the Patriots are winning this division.
Prediction: Patriots win the AFC East
Buffalo Bills – Team Basics: On offense, the Bills are a power football team. They will try to run the ball to set up the pass. So, play action passing is a big part of this game plan. In the past with Tyrod Taylor, his running ability gave them another element that they will lack this year. Defensively, the Bills employ the classic 4-3 alignment, much like the Carolina Panthers where Coach McDermott came from. The Bills will try to get to the QB with their down 4 guys and play zone coverage mostly behind it. The Bills do have physical corners, so man to man coverage is common with this team, too.
The Bills made the playoffs last year for the first time since the Music City Miracle loss in 1999-2000 season. New Head Coach in 2017, McDermott, is a good defensive mind and got this team to play really solid football last year. The Bills have had a ton of turnover with the roster. On offense, starting QB Tyrod Taylor is out, which opens the door for either 2nd year man, Nathan Peterman or newly acquired AJ McCarron from Cincinnati. The Bills also drafted the strong armed Josh Allen from Wyoming at QB, but the word is he needs to sit a year to be ready. The offense also lost the nasty and volatile Offensive Lineman Richie Incognito to retirement. The offense will rely heavily on Running Back, Lesean “Shady” McCoy again, but the Bills picked up the rugged Chris Ivory to spell McCoy. The Bills will really be a defensive team trying to keep their opponents down and winning the games grinding out the clock. The defense was very good last year, and they return many starters. They did pick up Vontae Davis, CB from the Indianapolis Colts, which can only help their already tough secondary, and Star Lotulelei, the talented Defensive Tackle from Carolina. So, this team is really a defensively anchored team. Can the offense score enough points to win games? I think enough to be hovering around the playoff hunt. I’ll have to do the Game by Game match ups to see.
Prediction: Bills are 2nd in the AFC East, but will just miss the playoffs at 8-8 or 9-7.
Miami Dolphins – Team Basics: On offense, Miami has not been consistent the past 2 years. In 2016, the Dolphins ran the ball a ton, but last year, it seemed like they wanted to spread the field out and throw it around more with limited results. It’s hard to say what the Dolphin identity will be. Given their QB is coming off an injury, then I would guess they will try a balanced approach to protect him. On defense, Miami employs the classic 4-3 trying to get pressure with their front 4 (like Buffalo). Now, whether they will be able to do that with their current group remains to be seen. The Miami back end has been suspect playing mostly zone. So, I would guess they will do more of the same given the virtually same personnel.
The Dolphins made the playoffs in 2016, despite the Ryan Tannehill injury at QB. Tannehill’s injury knocked him out for the entire year in 2017 also, and the Dolphins turned to “Smokin” Jay Cutler to replace him. That experiment was not great. Plus, Miami soured on their 2016 leading rusher, Jay Ajayi, mid-season and moved him to the Super Bowl winning, Philadelphia Eagles. In the off season, Miami parted ways with the very expensive Defensive Tackle, Ndamukong Suh, as he signed with the LA Rams and leading Wide Receiver, Jarvis Landry (Cleveland Browns). So, the Dolphins are lacking talent from that 2016 playoff team. However, they did draft a top Defensive Back, Minkah Fitzpatrick out of Alabama in the 1st round, who should help, a good catching Tight End in Mike Gesicki out of Penn State, and the bruising Kalen Ballage out of Arizona State at Running Back. The Dolphins also signed “The Vampire,” Frank Gore at Running Back (the guy never ages) and Brock Osweiler and Bryce Petty to fight as the back up along with David Fales behing Tannehill at QB. They also added the scrappy, Danny Amendola at WR from the Patriots. So, I’m not in love with this team on paper. Coach Adam Gase is a skilled play caller, but he will need to be very crafty with an undermanned offense and somehow get 3rd year WR DeVante Parker to step up to his potential to have a shot in the division. I see this team as being up and down. They may play up for a few games, but I can’t see this team winning more than 6 games.
Prediction: Miami finishes 3rd in the AFC East with no more than 6 wins – 5-11, is most likely.
New York Jets – Team Basics: Offensively, the Jets ran the ball effectively enough last year to be a balanced attack. They do not have the playmakers on the outside and really no capable Tight End to throw the ball exclusively. So, I would expect the same in 2018, a balanced approach. Defensively, the Jets run a 3-4 blitzing style. Coach Todd Bowles is from the school of thought that pressure leads to turnovers and sacks. So, he will blitz the house at times to get results. His additions in the secondary point to more of the same.
The Jets are going through a complete rebuild. I like what they have done in back to back drafts, however, the NFL is all about QB play. In the 2018 Draft, the Jets traded up to grab Sam Darnold at QB, however veteran Josh McCown will likely start early in the year. The Jets also picked up former Minnesota Viking, Teddy Bridgewater, who hasn’t played since his horrific knee injury in training camp in 2016. The Jets seem to be trying to address holes in their offense by wholesale additions. The Jets have added Andre Roberts and Terrelle Pryor at Wide Receiver, who are currently slated behind Jermaine Kearse and top WR, Robby Anderson (who had an arrest in the off season). They also added several Running Backs – Isaiah Crowell from Cleveland and Thomas Rawls from Seattle to go along with Bilal Powell and 2nd year RB, Elijah McGuire. So, the offense is a bit of a mess in my view. McCown will be able to get the offense going competently, but once they turn to Darnold or Bridgewater mid-season, then this team could be ugly to watch on offense. The strength of the Jets is on defense with the way they have drafted. Coach Todd Bowles may be on the hot seat, but his defense should be respectable. The Jets retooled the coverage unit with Dallas Cornerback Morris Claiborne, Trumaine Johnson from the LA Rams, and solid Nickel Cornerback, Buster Skrine, who all should step in to start. 2nd year Safety, Jamal Adams is a stud and Leonard Williams at Defensive End should be a force. The more I write this, I like the Jets to be better than the Dolphins this year. It really depends on how many games McCown will start over Darnold.
Prediction: Jets will finish tied for 3rd with Miami in the AFC East with a 5-11 record, but it could be more if McCown plays 10 games or more.
Alright, that is our first Divisional preview (sorry for the delay). Next preview will be the NFC East on Thursday.
Who do you like in the AFC East? Would love to hear your takes on this teams.
Wegs
PS – At the time of this post, the sudden passing of former Miami Dolphins head coach and current offensive line coach of the Minnesota Vikings passed away suddenly over the weekend. Thoughts and prayers go out to his family and colleagues.