This week golf’s 3rd major takes place in Scotland at the storied Carnoustie. Like most Open Championships, Carnoustie is a links style course which will challenge players to play smart. The winner of the tournament wins the coveted Claret Jug.
The Course
Carnoustie is 176 years old and will host the Championship for the 8th time in its history. The last time was in 2007 when Sergio Garcia lost a 3 shot lead in that year. In 1999, the leader on the 18th tee of the final round, Jean van de Velde, blew a 3 shot lead and eventually lost in the playoff.
Look at this article in the Wall Street Journal that shows van de Velde knee deep in a water hazard. This course will humble anyone.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-beauty-of-carnoustie-is-ugly-golf-1531918544?mod=hp_major_pos25
So there are no guarantees the leader on Thursday, Friday and Saturday will win the tournament. The course is known for how physically hard it is and so the ball rolls farther than American courses. I’ve heard that bombers of the golf ball struggle at Carnoustie, as the course plays better for players that bump and run the golf ball versus fly it. Carnoustie should provide plenty of drama over the weekend.
The Field
Here is the list of the past 5 Champions:
- 2017 – Jordan Spieth
- 2016 – Henrik Stenson
- 2015 – Zach Johnson
- 2014 – Rory McIlroy
- 2013 – Phil Mickelson
So, the big names do usually win the event. With the exception of Johnson, the other 4 were top 10 players in the world at the time. Johnson is a very good links player and still a perennial Top 20 player.
This year 156 players will tee off on Thursday. Here is a list of all the players ranked top to bottom by Michael Collins at ESPN.
Top Contenders:
Rickie Fowler (16-1): This guy has to break through at some point. Currently ranked 7th in the World, and in my opinion the best player not to win a Major in the field. Here are his last 6 Major finishes – 2018 US Open – 20th, Masters 2nd, 2017 – PGA – 5th, The Open 22nd, US Open 5th, and Masters – 11th. In past Open Championships, he has only missed the cut once in 2013, but his best finish was 5th and his worst was 46th. He is due.
Justin Rose (14-1): The 3rd ranked player in the World will try to bring the Championship back to the UK for the first time since Rory in 2014. His game is not all about distance, and he is a very good short game player. He will be right there.
Jordan Spieth (20-1): After a really terrible US Open, Spieth is trying to defend his Championship. Spieth is typically really good in the Majors and he has never missed the cut at The Open. I like him to be in contention all week.
Patrick Reed (30-1): Yes, another American, but Reed quietly has finished in the Top 5 of both Majors this year including the Masters win. Currently ranked 12th in the World, I think his game can adapt to Carnostie’s challenging course.
Tommy Fleetwood (18-1): Fleetwood has been really good in 2018 coming in ranked 10th in the world. After missing the cut in the 2017 Masters, here are his Major finishes: 2017 – 4th at US Open, 27th at the Open, 61st at the PGA and in 2018 17th at the Masters and 2nd at the US Open. He is another man who can bring the Claret Jug back to the UK.
These are my Top 5 and I like Rickie for the title.
Other Guys to Watch:
Dustin Johnson (12-1): Still the world’s #1 player and is always good, but I do not like him on this more technical course. As stated, the high ball flight guys typically struggle at Carnoustie. So, I would not be surprised if DJ finishes in the Top 5, but I do not like him to win it.
Brooks Koepka (20-1): The back to back US Open champion and now #4 player in the world has been great this year. I just don’t like him in a tournament where bumping and running with short game matters so much. Like his training partner, DJ, their ball flight and ability to dominate long courses will not help in Scotland. I can’t see him being in contention.
Jon Rahm (20-1): Another top player (#5 ranked) is a bomber that will struggle in Carnoustie. He could score well some days, but I do not see him consistently scoring for 4 days.
Phil Mickelson (50-1): To me, this is Leftie’s swan song. Does he have one more magical run on a tough course that uses your brains more than your brawn? I like Phil to be in contention for the weekend. I’m not sure he will crack the Top 10, but the UK faithful love Phil, and it would be great to see him active on the final round Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama (40-1): The 16th ranked player in the world can play this course very well. He is paired with Tiger Woods for the first 2 days which could produce mixed results. However, Matsuyama is a good dark horse to crack the Top 5 if he can play well through the cut. Matsuyama since missing the cut at the Open in 2016 has finished no worse than 19th in all Majors, including Top 5 finishes 3 times. If I were a betting man, then I would bet money on him, as his odds are longer than the others mentioned outside of Phil.
Rory McIlroy (16-1): I don’t like Rory for Majors until he shows me something. He has been much better this year than last with a Top 5 finish at the Masters, but missed the cut at the US Open. Now, Rory has finished no worse than 5th in his last 3 starts at The Open. I just don’t trust the guy. If you want to bet that he will crack the Top 5, then that makes sense. However to win, I cannot see it.
Tiger Woods (25-1): To me, this is crazy. People are all over Tiger in the betting world, but why? He finished 32nd at the Masters and missed the cut at the US Open. He has not played well at the Majors since the fall with injuries. I can’t see him cracking the Top 10, plus at 25-1, why not pick Matsuyama or even Reed who have been good at Majors in the past 2 years. Everyone wants Tiger to be back, but I just think he is past being a contender especially at a course that will punish mistakes.
Coverage:
Thursday and Friday: 1:30 AM to 4 PM Eastern on the Golf Channel
Saturday: 4:30 AM to 7 AM Eastern on the Golf Channel, 7 AM to 3 PM Eastern on NBC
Sunday: 4:30 AM to 7 AM Eastern on the Golf Channel, 7 AM to 2:30 PM Eastern on NBC
Check it out. The Open is one of the most fun tournaments to watch for 2 reasons – 1) the golf is in the morning so you don’t have to sacrifice your whole day/afternoon and 2) the conditions can really change the way the game is played – links style course and traditional windy conditions out in Scotland.
Enjoy it!
Wegs