So, the slow part of the summer is about to stop. Luckily, we had the World Cup to occupy us quite a bit during the lull between the NBA Finals and NFL training camp. For the next couple of weeks, I’m going to some major writing on NFL Fantasy Football and NFL Predictions plus our Side Action Previews for betting the NFL. However, this last week of the lull period will cover the following: MLB Mid-Season Preview (today), The Open (British Open) Preview in golf, and the first of the NFL Divisional Previews (1 Per Week for the next 8 Weeks) starting with the AFC East.
MLB Mid-Summer Classic
So, Major League Baseball is just the longest season on the planet. 162 games per team. Like I’ve said before, it is hard to sustain interest in the sport for the full season. However, the All Star Game is a really fun event that they do every year. Last night, they had the Home Run Derby, which is literally guys trying to hit a home run on batting practice pitching for the fans. The host team, Washington Nationals, had their star, Bryce Harper, steal the show with a huge comeback in the Finals. Trailing 18-9, Harper literally hit 10 homers in the final 90 seconds to take the crown. Plus his dad was the pitcher. Very impressive and entertaining.
Tonight, the all stars from both leagues will square off. Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (but always a White Sox guy in my mind) takes the bump for the American League, while Matt Scherzer, also of the Nationals, pitches for the National League. The American league has dominated the games winning 17 of the last 21 contests. Now, MLB used to have a rule that the winning team of the All Star Game won the home field advantage in the World Series. This change was to prevent the unfortunate tie in 2002. Plus, the move tried to give the game more meaning and ratings. In 2017, the league went back to what makes more sense. The team with the better record gets home field advantage in the World Series. So, let’s see if in Year 2, the game will stay competitive as it had been over that 14 year stretch with stakes on the line.
For those new to MLB, fans get to select the all star starters in the game through voting, plus the fans get to vote for the last All Star on the rosters from a list of close to be selected players. The rest of the roster is filled in by the coaches of the respective teams, which is the World Series coaches from the previous year – LA Dodgers skipper, Dave Roberts and Houston Astros head man, A.J. Hinch.
The rules for the game do not change fundamentally, they play 9 innings, just a like a normal game with extra innings if the game is tied. It is rare to not have everyone play in the game on both sides, but it can happen.
MLB Mid-Season Teams Only Review
So, we did a Quarter Season Review back in May. Now, with between 94 and 98 games in the books depending on the team. Let’s review the Pennant races:
Top Contenders:
To me, MLB is going to be a 3 horse race this year and all from the American league.
Boston Red Sox (68-30, 1st Place AL East) – The Sox continue their onslaught of the league. They are now 38 games over .500 with a .694 winning percentage. That is almost historic. At the break, they have a 4.5 game lead on the next best team in the division, the Yankees. Boston is good on both sides of the field – 3rd in Runs Against in the American League and 1st in Runs Scored by 30 (over Houston). That puts Boston at 2nd in Run Differential with +163. This is the team to beat.
Houston Astros (64-35, 1st Place AL West) – The ‘Stros, the defending champs, are playing good baseball, too. Houston is 1st in Runs Against with 312 (that’s best in all of MLB) and 2nd in Runs scored for the best Run Differential in baseball at +188. To me, the Astros have better pitching than Boston, but if they can’t catch them, then they will have a much tougher road in the playoffs. I still like them for the ALCS for sure.
New York Yankees (62-33, 2nd Place AL East)– The Yanks have tried to keep pace with the Red Sox. At 62-33, they have the 3rd best record in baseball. They are 3rd in Runs scored (behind Boston and Houston) and tied for 2nd in Runs Against. They are not surprisingly 3rd in Run Differential at +131. The Bombers still have a shot to catch Boston, but they are a virtual lock for the playoffs at this point. I’m sure they would love to avoid a one game playoff in the Wild Card though.
Other Potentials:
Chicago Cubs (55-38, 1st Place NL Central) – The Cubs have turned it around. The early run differential finally has translated into wins. Now, it did take a 6 game losing streak by the other NL Central contender Brewers (6 straight games) to take the lead. However, the metrics look good for the Cubs – 1st in Runs Scored and Runs Against in the National League with a +114 Run Differential. So, as long as the Cubs do not swoon against inferior talent, they should win their division now. The key for the Cubs is winning home field advantage, as Wrigley aka the Friendly Confines is always good to them (28-15). I see them winning the National League this year.
Cleveland Indians (52-43, 1st Place AL Central) – The AL Central is abysmal. So, it is no surprise the Indians are dominating with a 7.5 game lead over the Twins (the largest divisional lead in baseball). Their metrics are not dazzling with middle of the road in Runs Scored and Runs Against, but they do sport the 4th best Run Differential in the AL at +82. They will be a tough out come the playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers (53-43, 1st Place NL West) – The Dodgers got off to an awful start (17-26 at the Quarter), and they have been playing great baseball in the past 2 months (36-17, that’s .679 baseball). Their +82 Run Differential is 2nd only to the Cubs in the National League. Now, if they only can win more at home, they will be a playoff lock. Their Home Record is only 28-24 (+4) where the other listed contenders are all over +11 or more.
Teams I Don’t Trust
Philadelphia Phillies (53-42, 1st Place NL East) – Philly sports a +18 Run Differential, which is by far the worst of any division leader. This is a clear sign that things will turn for the worse as the season progresses. It’s nice to see them winning games and at home they are 30-16, however there are in for a major regression.
Milwaukee Brewers (55-43, 2nd Place NL Central) – The Brewers had led the division for most of the season before this recent 6 game losing streak. Their numbers are really good – 377 Runs Against is 3rd in the National League, but this is a young team that is much better at home (30-18). I don’t like their long term prospects.
Too Early Playoff Predictions:
American League:
AL East – Boston Red Sox (best overall record)
AL West – Houston Astros
AL Central – Cleveland Indians
AL Wild Card #1 – New York Yankees
AL Wild Card #2 – Seattle Mariners
This sets up a Yankees-Red Sox Divisional series for the ages. Houston takes out the Indians.
I can’t see anything but a Boston-Houston ALCS with Boston going to the Series.
National League:
NL Central – Chicago Cubs (top NL record)
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
NL East – Atlanta Braves (it’s a pick ’em at this point)
NL Wild Card #1 – Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card #2 – Washington Nationals (they have too much talent)
This sets up a repeat of the Nationals-Cubs series in the Divisional round. Los Angeles beats the Braves.
I like a repeat of last year’s NLCS, but the Cubs will have the home field advantage this year and win.
World Series – Storied series between the 2 former cursed clubs with Boston routing the Cubbies for another title.
What are your picks?
Wegs