So, the World Cup begins with 32 teams, and after a few weeks gets cut in half to 16. Only one team will leave with the world’s most coveted trophy. Let’s preview the remaining teams and match ups.
If you missed our initial preview, here is the link to the post with the original odds:
World Cup Preview – Side Action Podcast Teaser & How to Bet the World Cup
First Wegs will go over his predictions for the Tournament, but take a look at Steve “Action” Roberts betting picks from the Side Action Preview.
Wegs Picks – The Seeds and Match Ups
TOP HALF OF THE BRACKET
Round of 16:
Saturday, June 30th at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Uruguay – The forgotten South American squad looked great in Group Play with a +5 goal differential in a weaker group with Russia. Still, they earned this spot.
Vs.
Portugal – Ronaldo is the best player in the world and he has shown it so far. He single handedly tied Spain in Game 1 and has scored 4 goes in this tournament. Uruguay better have an answer for this guy.
Prediction: Uruguay is an unsung team, but very good. They will overcome Reynaldo to advance.
Saturday, June 30th at 10 AM Eastern/9 AM Central
France – The French were middle of the pack in the Group Stage. They will have to earn the next round with a tough match up against Argentina.
Vs.
Argentina – Messi and the bunch squeak into the Knockout Stage, but they can be dangerous. Messi is a world class player, so an upset can happen. Still it looks like a long shot for Argentina going deep here.
Prediction: France takes out Messi and Argentina
Round of 8/Quarterfinals:
Friday, July 6th at 10 AM Eastern/9 AM Central
Uruguay vs. France – I like Uruguay keeps rolling here with their deep roster and ability to change styles of play. This is less of a star studded match up then the alternative – Portugal (Ronaldo) and Argentina (Messi).
Prediction: Uruguay to the Semis
Round of 16:
Monday, July 2nd at 10 AM Eastern/9 AM Central
Brazil – Neymar is healthy now, but Brazil is not playing its best. That can go either way. They can kick it up and play great or falter.
Vs.
Mexico – Mexico has not advanced past the Round of 16 in decades. The 3-0 loss to Korea really cost them in the seeding. I’d like Mexico against anybody but Brazil is a favorite to win it all.
Prediction: Brazil gets to the Quarters
Monday, July 2nd at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Belgium – The Belgians bested the Brits to win their group. They look formidable in this wide open field.
Vs.
Japan – Japan dropped their final game in the Group Stage to winless Poland, which knocked them to the Runner Up. They may regret that in this match up against Belgium.
Prediction: Belgium will advance to Quarters.
Round of 8/Quarterfinals
Friday, July 6th at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Brazil vs. Belgium – Belgium will give Brazil a real test. This should be a great game and the 2nd best game in the Quarters. I still think the Brazil talent will win out.
Prediction: Brazil to the Semis
Semis:
Tuesday, July 10th at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Brazil vs. Uruguay – One of the World Cup Final will include a South American country. It’s hard to see Uruguay getting past Brazil. As a prognosticator, Brazil is the favorite. As a fan, I hope for the upset.
Prediction: Brazil will reach the Final.
BOTTOM HALF OF THE BRACKET
Round of 16:
Sunday, July 1st at 10 AM Eastern/9 AM Central
Spain – Spain is a very talented team, and this match up with Russia should be interesting given the host nation.
Vs.
Russia – The host Russians took advantage of an easy group before falling to the talented Uruguay squad. I think that against tougher competition, the Russians will not show well.
Prediction: Spain will eliminate the hosts to advance.
Sunday, July 1st at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Croatia – Looks like a force to be reckoned with. I watched their game versus Nigeria and was impressed by their skill, possession and team speed. I like this team.
Vs.
Denmark – The Danes will have a lot to play for in this one, but Croatia is more talented.
Prediction: Croatia advances easily over the Danes.
Round of 8/Quarterfinals
Saturday, July 7th at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Spain vs. Croatia – Probably the best Quarters match up of the Cup. I’m in love with this Croatian team, and I think they can best this talented Spanish team.
Prediction: Croatia advances to the Semis
Round of 16:
Tuesday, July 3rd at 10 AM Eastern/1 PM Central
Sweden – The Swedes are strong and looked good in Group play. It is time to see if this team has what it takes to go deep in the tournament.
Vs.
Switzerland – The Swiss are one of many teams just barely getting into the Knockout Stage. I don’t think they will have enough to advance.
Prediction: Sweden gets to the Quarters
Tuesday, July 3rd at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Colombia – Colombia not only gets into the Knockout Round, but wins the group with the 1-0 win over Senegal. Let’s see if they can ride that wave into the Quarters.
Vs.
England – The seat of the Premier League comes here after losing the final Group Stage game against Belgium. They played well in the Group Stage with a top heavy group. I like their chances to advance.
Prediction: England will advance to the Quarters.
Round of 8/Quarterfinals:
Saturday, July 7th at 10 AM Eastern/9 AM Central
Sweden vs England – This should be a real battle of European soccer. The taller and stronger Swedes versus the skilled Brits. I still like the Brits here.
Prediction: England goes to the Semis
Semis:
Wednesday, July 11th at 2 PM Eastern/1 PM Central
Croatia vs. England – An all European Semi-final features two very different teams. I’m in love with Croatia still. This should be a great Semi.
Prediction: Croatia reaches its first ever World Cup final.
World Cup Finals:
Sunday, July 15th at 11 AM Eastern/10 AM Central
Brazil vs. Croatia – The team everyone knows versus the team no one considered. Brazil has all the flash, the hair styles, and the passionate fan base, while Croatia has quietly played great soccer and assembling a gangbuster team. It should be a great final.
Prediction: Croatia wins their 1st World Cup ever!!
I think Uruguay takes England in the 3rd place game being held on Saturday, July 14th at 10 AM Eastern/9 AM Central.Wegs
Wegs
Steve “Action” Roberts – Side Action Betting Preview:
Group play is over and now it’s on to the nervy, tense, and exciting matches which constitute the World Cup Knockout phase. These games will offer plenty of excitement and a plethora of money making opportunities for Side Action. As a quick reminder, all books odds will be settled on 90 minutes of game time (plus stoppage). In this round tie games will go on to extra time (two 15-minute halves), and if still tied go to the all exciting penalty shootout. Another option is to find odds on Team A or B to advance which would include the extra time and/or penalty result, however it is important to make the distinction before you wager. Onto the good stuff and predictions.
Pre-tournament 2nd favorites and current cup holders Germany have been eliminated with a mere whimper, and updated World Cup title odds have been slashed for many of the big dogs (courtesy of Bovada):
Brazil: +350
Spain: +450
Belgium: +600
England: +750
France: +850
Croatia: +1000
Argentina: +1200
Portugal: +2200
Colombia: +2200
Uruguay: +2200
Switzerland: +3300
Mexico: +5000
Russia: +6000
Sweden: +7000
Denmark: +8000
Japan: +15000
In looking at the bracket one side has clearly opened up for four teams, and all have a chance to reach the final – Spain, Croatia, Colombia and England. They have all managed to avoid the likes of Uruguay, France, Argentina, Brazil, and Belgium. There are a few values here from a futures perspective which may be of interest. If you followed the Croatia play at pre-tournament odds of +3300, then Spain is an obvious hedge opportunity. These two sides are far too strong for any other opponent on this side of the bracket, and one of them will surely make at least the final. Another strong value proposition is Uruguay, they boast a stellar defense which allowed zero goals throughout the group stage. They have strong attacking talent up front in Suarez and Cavani, and they will be contenders in every game they play just due to the nature of their game. At 22-1, I’ll take a shot at them with a good chance of them reaching at least the semifinals where anything can happen.
As for my predictions, in the quarterfinals I’ve got Uruguay, France, Brazil, Belgium, Spain, Croatia, Switzerland, and England. Brazil over France in Semifinal #1, and Spain over England in Semifinal # 2. Spain takes the crown again in a thrilling final in extra time, 2-1.
Game to game angles:
The knockout rounds historically result in more tight games and less risk taking for teams who on paper have a competitive disadvantage. Game to game the value often lies in looking for unders in the total goals markets – both first half and full game. Bookmakers will often set goal lines at 2, giving the option of a push if a game ends 1-1 or 2-0. I’ll look to go under in games with teams that have strong defenses – the aforementioned Uruguay, plus Portugal, France, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland.
I’ve already made plays on under 2 goals in the Uruguay/Portugal match, and also under 2 goals in the Sweden/Switzerland match. Colombia’s James Rodriguez injury on Thursday looks like it may keep him out of the upcoming match with England, and I think this gives England significant value as slight +110 favorites to win this matchup. Additionally, a moneyline parlay of round of 16 big favorites Spain, Brazil, Belgium, and Croatia looks to be quite enticing.
Best of luck wagering!
Steve “Action” Roberts