NBA Draft Series: Part II – Top 15 Players and Predictions

So, yesterday, we covered the basics of the NBA Draft.  Today, we will dig into the players and teams.  Like the NFL Draft, we will go over a players “traits” and then the team needs to find a “fit.”

Valued Player Traits

For the NBA, the game has changed a lot over the years.  In the early days of the NBA and up until the early 2000s, the domination of the big man in the Draft was evident.  Since the rules have changed to allow more freedom of movement for guards, plus the evolution of the game in opening the floor at every position, the game wants position-less players.  What does that mean?

• Position-less Basketball:  Traditional basketball was set up as a 1-5 position game.  1s or Point Guards bring the ball up, set the offense and either drive to the hoop or feed the post.  Think John Stockton here.  2s and 3s are the Wing players (Shooting Guard and Small Forward respectively) who are on the outside to shoot the ball and create their own shot by driving or even posting up.  Think Jordan as the 3 and Larry Bird as the 3.  The 4s are the Power Forwards who post up on the block and grab rebounds.  Think Karl Malone, Kevin McHale and Charles Barkley.  Finally, the 5s were the Centers who could also post up and clog the middle on defense.  This is Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabar, and Shaquille O’Neal.  With the game moving to a more open floor at all times, which means that there are no true “post” players (Power Forwards or Centers) with their backs to the basket on the block, basketball has moved to 5 players on the floor that can do everything.  The NBA values players that can drive, shoot and pass from any position on the floor.  The Power Forward has given away to the “Stretch 4” who can shoot from outside.  Centers are typically the longer athletic guys who can shoot, too.  The other key to position-less basketball is the fact that every position can defend any other position.  The prevailing defensive strategy now is for players to switch on every screen.  That strategy puts big men guarding point guards, so for that to work, the centers have to be very quick, agile and able to get up on those quicker players.  So, the move to a more position-less game (like European basketball), there is little room for the conventional big man or the point guard that cannot shoot.
• Athleticism is King:  Along the same lines, the league has progressively moved to more and more athletic guys at each position.  The NBA has always valued athleticism.  However, now with the more open style and players needing to cover the entire floor defensively, NBA teams look for the longer athletic guys first and the skills later.  Again, if bigger players are being asked to defend smaller guards, then the guys need to be quick and explosive.
• Length:  Again back to the switching nature of the defenses, the NBA values guys who are long.  That means height, of course, but it also means long arms.  Arm length is one of those combine measurables that NBA teams covet.  There are teams like the Lakers who now have nearly every player on the floor at 6’8″ or 6’9″ at every position.  The length also helps offensively to get your shot off with all that defensive length on the court.
• Shooting Is Queen:  If athleticism is king, then shooting the ball is Queen.  The NBA values guys who can shoot the ball.  The open floor play puts players at 25 feet all over the court.  So, the current NBA wants guys who can hit that shot regardless of height.  You will see very good basketball players who struggle to shoot the 3 point shot drop in today’s Draft when even a decade ago, that person would be 10 picks higher.  Look at the World Champs, the Warriors have at least 4 players who can hit the 3s consistently in their starting lineup.  That is the current NBA.
• Ball Handling Is Still Important:  Ball handling has always been important in the game.  However, in the 80s and 90s, the guards and small forwards handled the ball exclusively.  The NBA wants every position to be able to handle the ball more – dribbling and passing.  So, players that can handle the ball at any height is a premium, not as much as shooting, but not far off.

So, to review, the traits you will hear during the Draft are going to be on these lines:  athleticism, length, shooting ability and ball handling or the ability for a player to “put it on the floor.”  Is there room for players not meeting these traits?  Of course, if a guy can play or has the work ethic to improve their games – shooting, ball handling and defense, then the guy can make it.  However, at the top of the Draft, you are going to see players meeting these key traits.

Top 15 Players

By now, the analysis is complete.  Teams have worked out their coveted players.  The combine is complete.  So, who are the top guys?

The Top Names:

Deandre Ayton – Freshman, Center, Arizona – Ayton is the projected top pick.  He is 7’1″ and 260 lbs.  Ayton is as athletic a big man with great footwork reminiscent of Hakeem “The Dream” Olajuwon.  Ayton can also face up and shoot.  Probably not 3 point range, but he can hit a 15-17 footer.  The knock on him is he is not an elite defender.  However, his offensive game translates very well in the NBA.

Luka Doncic – International, Shooting Guard, Slovenia – Doncic has already been playing pro ball in Europe, in fact, his team won the league championship this week.  Doncic is 6’8″, but slight at 228 lbs.  He is the prototypical European player coming the NBA – good passer and shooter, but not a great defender.  He will have to get stronger and learn to play defense, but he is a very skilled player for his size.

Mohamed (Mo) Bamba – Freshman, Power Forward/Center, Texas – Bamba is the best defender at big man in the Draft.  He is slight at 7’1″ and 226 lbs, but he has elite shot blocking ability and lateral agility to switch on the pick and roll.  His length or wing span is 7’10”.  Offensively, he has to work on his game, but he has shown the ability to hit outside shots.

Marvin Bagley III – Freshman, Power Forward, Duke – Bagley is the best big man scorer in this Draft.  At 6’11” and 234 lbs., he can score from the block or mid-range.  Bagley excelled rebounding the ball, as he has been said to bring a ton of energy to the court.  Bagley is a very complete player.

Jaren Jackson, Jr. – Freshman, Power Forward, Michigan State – Jackson is the thing the NBA covets – 6’11” and 236 lbs, great athleticism and a good shooter from behind the arc.  Next to Bamba is the 2nd best defending big man in the Draft, but he is more skilled offensively.  Jackson, however, is young and unpolished compared to Ayton and Bagley.

Michael Porter, Jr. – Freshman, Small Forward, Missouri – Porter is a 6’10” and 215 lbs small forward, that could have been the #1 pick, but he injured his back in his first college game at Missouri missing almost the entire year.  Porter is a great scorer from all over the court.  He can shoot the ball from deep and handle the ball, but the back injury has scared off teams.  The team that picks him will need to be comfortable with the back prognosis.

Trae Young – Freshman, Point Guard, Oklahoma – Young is a polarizing talent.  He is small at 6’2″ and 178 lbs – I think that is not correct.  I think he is shorter and lighter.  Young was a sensation early in the season and still led the nation in scoring and assists.  Young has crazy range, much like Steph Curry.  He routinely shoots the ball from 30 ft plus.  Young can also handle the ball very well.  However, Young is not ready for the NBA game and physicality plus he is a liability on defense.  Teams will want to get the next Steph Curry here, but they need to watch those expectations, as Steph is taller and stronger.

Next Cut of Players – Less Flash, but Solid Players:

Wendell Carter, Jr. – Freshman, Power Forward, Duke – Carter is a lunch pail guy.  He sacrificed for the team at Duke despite good abilities on both ends of the floor.  At 6’10” and 251 lbs, he should be a good defender in the NBA, and he can shoot the ball.  Carter could be a sleeper player and good fit for a team with stretch 4 needs.

Collin Sexton – Freshman, Point Guard, Alabama – Sexton is a very dynamic player at 6’2 and 183 lbs.  Sexton is built a lot more solidly than Young and plays with a tremendous pace.  Sexton is not as athletic as Russell Westbrook, but he could play downhill like Westbrook.  Sexton needs to improve on his 3 point shooting, but he is a very tough defender.  So, Sexton can be the best point guard in the class.

Mikal Bridges – Junior, Small Forward, Villanova – Bridges is a very smooth small forward coming from a successful program.  At 6’7″ and 210 lbs, Bridges can step in to most teams and put in big minutes.  The Nova system is like a pro style offense, so he can step in immediately, plus he has very good athleticism and defensive abilities.  Oh and Bridges has a 7’2″ wing span, so that length is there.  I see Bridges as a sleeper in this Draft, as the top teams go for all the unproven freshman.

Kevin Knox – Freshman, Small Forward, Kentucky – Knox is a tall small forward at 6’9″ and 213 lbs.  Knox is a shoot first player with good range.  He is strong for his lean frame, but he needs to improve rebounding the ball and defending.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Freshman, Point Guard, Kentucky – Gilgeous-Alexander is a very long point guard at 6’6″ and 180 lbs with a 7′ wing span.  He is a very good defender and can make plays for his team going towards the basket.  He is not a great shooter, but teams should be able to find a place for such a long, ball handler on the floor.  I like him over his teammate Knox.

Miles Bridges – Sophomore, Small Forward, Michigan State – Bridges stayed an extra year to improve his game, but his stock may not have improved.  He is a very explosive athlete with a huge vertical and strength at 6’7″ and 220 lbs.  Bridges has the ability to defend almost any position, but has to be more focused.  His improved shooting this year from deep will help on the next level.  Bridges may be another sleeper as he has all the tools to excel on the next level.

Robert Williams – Sophomore, Power Forward, Texas A&M – Williams is a very athletic big man at 6’10” and 240 lbs.  He is both a rim protector and finisher, much like a Clint Capela for the Houston Rockets.  If he can develop an outside shot, then he will be indispensable for an NBA club.

Lonnie Walker IV – Freshman, Shooting Guard, Miami – The last of this group is Walker at 6’5″ and 196 lbs.  He is a pure scorer and can shoot effectively as well as get to the rim.  The knock on him will be his inability to defend in the NBA.  So, strength and willingness to improve there will be essential to success.

Teams and Likely Picks

1. Phoenix Suns – The Suns were the NBA’s worst team.  They have potent scorers from the outside in Devin Booker and TJ Warren, plus the emergence over the season by rookie Josh Jackson, the Suns could use size.  Ayton is the Pick here.
2. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are in transition.  Zach Randolph was their leading scorer, but he is aging.  Buddy Hield is scoring ok, but they need more than him and Bogdanovic.  It looks like another Euro player in Dancic.
3. Atlanta Hawks – The Hawks are another rebuilding franchise.  With a young backcourt of Dennis Schroder and Taurean Prince, the Hawks could use some size.  Bamba doesn’t want to play for the Grizzlies, so I guess Atlanta will do.
4. Memphis Grizzlies –  The Grizzlies have hit hard times.  Tyreke Evans was a bright spot, but Gasol is aging and Conley had a poor year.  Another quality big man makes sense to me here, Bagley is the pick. 
5. Dallas Mavericks – The Mavs are not a contender anymore.  They are trying to get younger.  Dennis Smith, Jr. was ok last year.  Dirk is on the way out.  They need talent of any kind.  I think Michael Porter would make sense here.
6. Orlando Magic –  The poor trades of the past have cost this team a lot of talent.  The team lacks a good point guard, so Young is in play here.  Jackson is a better player, but Orlando has made mistakes before.  Trae Young is the pick.
7. Chicago Bulls – As a Bulls fan, I would really like this scenario.  The Bulls need more athletes who can score and defend.  The Bulls were poor on defense last year.  I’d like to see Jaren Jackson here.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers – The Cavs are in limbo.  It seems Lebron is leaving them, which makes them a perennial lottery team.  The Cavs will likely trade this pick tomorrow, but if they do not, the best player left is Wendell Carter.
9. New York Knicks – The Knicks are a mystery.  With a new coach, it isn’t clear what direction they will go.  Kristaps Porzingis is returning from injury, and the rest of the team isn’t great.  The smart play is to draft Mikal Bridges who will be a good pro, but even with the trade for Mudiay, the Knicks may opt for Collin Sexton.  The Knicks will take Collin Sexton.
10. Philadelphia Sixers – The Sixers have a lot of balls in the air right now.  Can they woo Lebron?  Will Markelle Fultz come back and play?  They have a very good young team.  The best pick is Mikal Bridges now, and he should stay in Philly.
11. Charlotte Hornets – The Hornets are rebuilding, again.  Walker is a bright spot, but they just shipped Dwight Howard off to the Nets.  With Howard gone, the Hornets may turn to Williams to fill the Howard void or go with Miles Bridges for athleticism.  My gut says they go with Williams.  
12. Los Angeles Clippers – The Clips are in play for Kwahi Leonard this summer.  That could change a lot of fortunes.  With their former nucleus dismantled, they are looking to identify young talent with the help of Jerry West.  West likes versatile players.  I think he takes Miles Bridges.
13. Los Angeles Clippers – With back to back picks, the Clips may trade out of this position.  However, they do need talent.  To me, the logical pick is Gilgeous-Alexander.  He will be a defensive fiend for this team, and you can move Patrick Beverly off the ball if needed.
14. Denver Nuggets – The Nuggets have a very good big man in Jokic, and Jamal Murray was a good scorer for them along with Will Barton and Gary Harris.  The Nuggets probably need a stretch 4, but may be forced to take Kevin Knox at this point.
15. Washington Wizards – The Wiz are aging and missed their opportunities to go deep in consecutive playoffs.  John Wall and Bradley Beal are still their core.  They need a good big man.  I can’t seem them taking Lonnie Walker here, so a guy we will go over tomorrow is Brandon McCoy from UNLV.  He is the pick here.

Ok, we have covered the Top 15.  We will get into the next tier of players and project the rest of Round 1 with guys to watch for in Round 2.

Who do you like for your team and why?

Wegs