Wegspool followers, we are few now, but we are about to go big, international, even. The World Cup kicks off tomorrow in Russia, and that is the event that more nations and people watch than any other sporting event in the World. The teams have taken years to qualify, and unlike sports that I follow closely like football (American) and NCAA basketball which are US based, every nation has a shot in this thing. Sure there are perennial powerhouse teams like Germany, Brazil, and Argentina. However, there hasn’t been a repeat champion since 1962.
I do not pretend to be a soccer expert at all. In fact, if my daughter hadn’t played soccer for the past 7 years, then I probably would know next to nothing about the sport. I like to watch as a casual fan who appreciates great competition. The World Cup brings rabid fans to the game. In other countries, soccer is life. There are blood rivalries between soccer clubs and in some cases fans cannot even sit next to each other or fights will break out. So before I go into the teams this year, I wanted to preview a concept a buddy and I have for the future.
Side Action Podcast
As I put out in the my May 16th post, sports gambling is being legalized across the US. Delaware has signed a law allowing it, and New Jersey is right there, too.
As stated in the post, 32 states are expected to legalize sports gambling in some fashion. So, my buddy who knows gambling like no other, Steve “Action” Roberts and I will be starting a regular podcast on the topic. Our format will be simple. We will cover the latest developments in the legislation across the states, so our listeners can be informed where they can gamble legally. We will discuss how we think things will change as a result of those laws. The other key part of the podcast will be to actually help people gamble “responsibly.” Steve is already an expert at using the apps that track his various bets. I think for myself I have wagered and played fantasy sports for over 20 years. You have to analyze the games, spreads, over/unders, but you also have to manage your bankroll so you can gamble without getting crushed. So, the Side Action podcast will be just that, open discussions about gambling on specific sports and games but how you can strategize at your level. We are excited about it, and there will be more to come as we get things set up.
With that said, I’m going to provide Steve’s complete World Cup Preview below, which will analyze the teams, like I would do, but also the odds on the teams.
World Cup Basics:
The World Cup is divided into 8 groups (A-H) of 4 teams. So, 32 teams make the tournament. The first segment of the tournament is called “Group Play.” Each team will play every team in their group or a Round Robin format. The top 2 teams from each group will advance to the “Knock Out” stage or the single elimination portion of the tournament. So, the final 16 teams are like the Sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament. Those match ups will be a win or go home scenario.
For those not familiar with soccer, the games have two 45 minute halves played. The officials track the time, so usually there is “stoppage time” based on stoppages for injuries or other delays. So, when you are watching on tv, games go slightly over the 90 minutes as the clock runs continuously when in play.
In Pool Play, there can be ties after the full 90 minutes plus stoppage time. In the Knock Out Stage, there are no ties, so if the game is tied at the end of regulation and stoppage time, then there will be two 15 minutes periods called “extra time” like overtime. It is not sudden death in the extra time periods, just more time to play. If the game is tied after the extra periods, then one of the most exciting thing in sports happens – Penalty Kicks. Penalty Kicks pit one player kicking a ball against the goalkeeper by themselves from 12 yards or 11 meters from the goal. The kicking player can only strike the ball once (no dribbling or repositioning of the ball is allowed). Each team selects 5 players to shoot and the teams alternate taking the shots. It is one of the hardest things in all of sports to stop a penalty kick for the goalkeeper. There is really nothing more dramatic in sports.
Once the field is whittled down to the final 2, a champion will be crowned in that final game. There is also a 3rd place game. The opening game starts tomorrow between Russia and Saudi Arabia with Group Play at 11 AM Eastern/10 AM Central, and the Knockout Stage begins Saturday, June 30th. The World Cup Final will be held on Sunday, July 15th at 11 AM Eastern/10 AM Central. Fox Sports will have exclusive coverage of the World Cup on Fox and Fox Sports 1.
Betting Basics Review:
Some notes on how to read this: the betting terms will be in both odds and money line. Here are some examples:
Money Line Bets: When you see something being -150, you would have to pay $150 to win $100 based on the given result. So, if a team is -150, then that team is a favorite to win. Conversely, if you see +150, if you bet $100, and they win, you will win $150.
Odds: If you see a team is 20:1 odds, that means if you bet $1 on that team and they win the Cup, you will make $20. Obviously, the teams that are considered favorites to win will have shorter or smaller numbers in front of the colon like Spain at 5.5:1 or Brazil at 4:1 versus the long shots to win like Saudi Arabia at 750:1.
An important clarification is that for Soccer bets, the Money Line individual game bets are settled at the end of regulation and stoppage time. Extra time and a penalty shootout are not considered for those bets.
Steve “Action” Roberts has laid out the following:
- Money Line on the Winning Continent – Europe, South America or Other
- Each Teams:
- Odds to Win the World Cup
- Money Line to Win the World Cup
- Money Line to Advance to the Knockout Stage
- Team by Team Preview
- Tiers for Champions
- Future Wagers by Action in Pool Play
Action’s World Cup Preview – Disclaimer: All Picks are given as an opinion and are not guaranteed by Wegs Pool or Action – bet at your own risk
Winning Continent = Europe -260, SA +180, World +2500
A
Russia = 40:1 WC, +175 WG, -300 Adv. – I will be fading all tournament long. Poor in defense and they often give up a plethora of scoring chances. Look for some overs in their games against quality opponents, likely the Egypt game.
Saudi Arabia = 750:1 WC, +4000 WG, +800 Adv. – Surely last place in the group, mostly domestic based players. They did have a few loaned out to Spanish league teams, but nearly all of those players failed to get any game time this season, which spells likely doom for this squad. Their strength is cohesiveness as the team is made up primarily from the top two club teams in Saudi Arabia. They will have a tough time earning even a point.
Egypt = 150:1 WC, +600 WG, +150 Adv. – Mo Salah, key player but his injured shoulder is a slight concern. The latest reports show him as being fit for the opening on 6/15/18. However, even without Salah they will compete with this poor group. Like them to advance out of this group, perhaps a dark horse to win it.
Uruguay = 28:1 WC, -130 WG, -500 Adv. – Suarez + Cavani are the key goal scoring duo up top. They are likely other team to advance from this group. Resolute defenders, and always involved in very tight, cagey, and low scoring affairs. Likely will face Portugal or Spain in the round of 16 which will be a tough ask for them.
B
Portugal = 22:1 WC, +190 WG, -550 Adv. – like Portugal not to advance at +300. They have set up very defensively in recent outings, and lack a bit of creativity in front of goal outside of Ronaldo. Look for unders with this team, and draws.
Spain = 5.5:1 WC, -200 WG, -1200 Adv. – Toughest team they have had in recent memory. Their attackers are high quality, and the defense is one of the most experienced and best chemistry in the tournament. They will be in this until the end.
Morocco = 300:1 WC, +1600 WG, +350 Adv. – sharp pick to advance ahead of Portugal. They boast a stout defense, and allowed zero goals throughout African qualifying. Morocco over 2.5 points at -125. Look to go under in 1st game against Iran, will be extremely tight. And unders throughout their run for that matter. They will struggle for goals though, and don’t have much in terms of great attacking talent.
Iran = 500:1 WC, +3300 WG, +650 Adv.
C
France = 6:1 WC, -350 WG, -1400 Adv. – Heavy favorites to win this group. World class attackers with Griezmann, Giroud, Mbappe. Solid central defenders, and they have cover all around. They will have a massive edge in possession stats throughout this group stage, but concerns about their ability to power in goals. Consider looking toward the under in many of their games. The recent friendly result against a very inexperienced USA team was a bit alarming.
Australia = 400:1 WC, +2000 WG, +325 Adv. – Australia to finish last -105. Fairly poor side, with no real attacking flair players to rely on.
Peru = 150:1 WC, +900 WG, +175 Adv.– sharp pick to advance. Guerrero eligible will provide them a huge boost in attack. Look to grab goals against France. And like them to beat Denmark
Denmark = 80:1 WC, +450 WG, -160 Adv. This team will go only as far as Christian Eriksen can carry them. He’s all class and the team looks to play through him at all costs. They will be very direct, and knock lots of long balls up the pitch and try to win knock downs with Eriksen and other midfielders. Don’t see them scoring a ton of goals.
D
Argentina = 9:1 WC, -160 WG, -600 Adv. – look for overs, could be susceptible at the back. Fade them all group stage, +585 not to advance. Or the field to win the group.
Iceland = 200:1 WC, +1000 WG, +275 Adv. – fade them, possibly even bet on a last place finish
Croatia = 33:1 WC, +210 WG, -300 Adv.– possibly a sleeper to win the tournament, incredibly strong in the midfield and they boast a legit goal scorer in Mario Mandzukic. Look to buy them at a modest price in the Calcutta. Also a win the World Cup Bet here. And Croatia to win the group.
Nigeria = 150:1 WC, +900 WG, +240 Adv.– look for overs in their games, should be high flying and attack minded. Over 2.5 goals in the group stage +135.
E
Brazil = 4:1 WC, -400 WG, -2500 Adv. – Absolute stud attackers on this team, and they are favorites to lift the cup for good reason. Their defense is the weakest link and could ship in quite a few goals. Look for overs in many of their games. Likely a good team for a win the cup bet, however winning on European soil will be a tall order for the South Americans. Gabriel Jesus as the golden boot winner is worth a flier.
Switzerland = 100:1 WC, +600 WG, +100 Adv. – Likely will be involved in some slow, mucky games, look to bet a lot of unders when they play. Potential bet to finish last in the group as well.
Costa Rica = 400:1 WC, +1600 WG, +350 Adv.- Like Costa Rica to advance here. Over 2 points in the group stage. Look for unders as well with a stout defense and the best GK in the world (Keylor Navas)
Serbia = 150:1 WC, +750 WG, +100 Adv. – solid but not flashy team with an old group of defenders, averaging 33 years. Fade them throughout, however could be a sneaky pick to advance in second out of this group. Especially because they don’t play Brazil until the third game.
F
Germany = 4.5:1 WC, -330 WG, -1500 Adv. – Absolute powerhouse, the central midfield and defenders on this team give them a real chance to be the first repeat champs since 1962. Second favorites to only Brazil. Getting Marco Reus healthy for his first major tournament will be a huge boost to the attack. And this time around they have a real legit striker in Timo Werner. They may actually be a better side than the one that cruised in Brazil in 2014. The only weak link on this team is a left back, and even that is a stretch. They should easily win this group.
Mexico = 80:1 WC, +500 WG, -110 Adv. – Like them to advance in 2nd, sharp side here. Winger Hirving Lozano is a supreme talent and will provide some attacking flair to the left side of their setup. Like the bet for them to be eliminated in the round of 16 at +200. If they finish 2nd in this group then Brazil awaits.
Sweden = 125:1 WC, +650 WG, +135 Adv. – Very unified and solid squad, perhaps even better team chemistry without Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the team. Emil Forsberg will provide their creative spark and he’s really the only player on the team with that ability. Many of their regular players have not gotten much game action for clubs this season, and as such they are coming into this tournament a little rusty. Will struggle to get anything out of the two matches with Mexico and Germany, and will likely finish third or fourth.
Korea = 400:1 WC, +1600 WG,+240 Adv. – Fade Korea often, tons of injuries have impacted the squad selection. Son Heung-min is their only real star, and the Tottenham man will need to shine if Korea is able to even get a point out of three games. Do have a shot to beat Sweden in game 1, but that will probably be it for the reds and see them crashing out at the group stage. They have serious problems in defense, and will likely ship in a lot of goals. Look to back the overs in many of their games, especially against Germany and Mexico.
G
Belgium = 11:1 WC, -130 WG, -900 Adv. – Like them winning this group at -130 a pretty good value. Very good team, with attacking talent all over the pitch. Should be involved in pretty high scoring affairs against both Panama and Tunisia. Vincent Kompany groin injury may slow him down a tick, but he is expected to play (keep tabs on this).
Panama = 750:1 WC, +4000 WG, +1000 Adv. Pretty bad team who will struggle to compete in both matches against the top of this group. They really struggle to score, and look to muck it up whenever they can. Gabriel Torres is their really only attacking threat.
Tunisia = 500:1 WC, +1200 WG, +400 Adv. Best player is injured and not playing in the World Cup. They play Belgium and England in the first two games and may be out of it already by game 3.
England = 16:1 WC, +115 WG, -800 Adv. Solid team which likes to press high up the pitch and win balls back in dangerous positions. However, they struggle to maintain this pressure for all 90 minutes, so look to live bet against them on occasion.
H
Poland = 50:1 WC, +170 WG, -160 Adv. Only will go as far as Robert Lewandowski can carry them. He is a legit threat to contend for the golden boot if Poland can make a run. Solid in defense and tough to break down. They will be a tough team to face in this group.
Senegal = 150:1 WC, +400 WG, +130 Adv. – Sneaky pick to advance from this group. One African team who actually has the talent to compete on this stage. Sadio Mane up front is coming off a fantastic season with Liverpool, and can score some goals. His pace will surprise some defenders. They have a solid spine too with Gueye and Kouyate running the midfield, and Koulibaly at CB is a solid player with tons of European experience. I like them to advance here.
Colombia = 33:1 WC, +130 WG, -300 Adv. The darlings from 2014 return with an impressive squad which may be more equipped to hang with the elites this time around. James Rodriguez is 4 years older and more experienced. They get a return of Radamel Falcao up front who is coming off an impressive season at Monaco. Young defenders lead the back line, but they are more than capable. This team should easily advance and has abilities to get to the quarterfinals.
Japan = 250:1 WC, +750 WG, +150 Adv. Nothing really flashy for Japan, but they do possess a solid group of players. Most are a bit aged, but do offer plenty of experience in big tournaments. They should be able to hang around in some games and nip a point here or there. But I don’t expect them to do any major damage.
Tier of Potential Champions: Brazil, France, Germany, Spain
Second Tier: Argentina, Portugal, Belgium, Colombia
Sleeper: Croatia
No team has repeated since 1962
My Futures Wagers – Total:
Australia to finish last in group D = -125
Nigeria team total goals over 2.5 = -130
Mbappe highest scorer for France = +600
Egypt to Advance from group A = +170
Croatia to win the World Cup = +3500
Peru to Advance from Group C = +150
Gabriel Jesus top scorer in World Cup = +1400
Morocco to Advance from Group B = +325
Switzerland to finish last in group E = +400
So, get up early and watch this glorious tournament. The rest of the world will be watching too. If you can get some cash on it, then make it count.
Wegs