I wasn’t not posting much last week for a variety of reasons. So, look for 4 posts this week – Today (NHL), Tomorrow (French Open), Wednesday (NBA) and Thursday or Friday (Belmont Stakes).
The NHL Stanley Cup Finals are 3 games in. The darling Knights have cooled off against the hungry Capitals. My Caps prediction is looking solid so far up 2-1 with tonight at home again. Let’s take a deep dive into the stats first:
Stats so Far:
I’m not a big hockey buff, but I know the most important thing is goal tending. Vegas’s Marc-Andre Fleury was the hottest goalie in the playoffs before the Finals. Well, the Capitals are doing what they have done all year – get efficiency in their scoring chances. If you read my Stanley Cup preview, you would remember that Washington is at the bottom of the NHL in shots on goal (29.0 PG). In the Finals, they have continued that trend with only 80 shots in the 3 games. However, they are converting at a very high rate – 12.50% that is a goal every 8th shot. Fleury has not recorded a single game over 90% save percentage, which is a mark to me of quality goaltending.
The Caps on the other hand are giving up a lot of shots at 94, which is just under the Golden Knights average. However, Braden Holtby is getting it done between the pipes averaging an almost 92% save rate. That includes that opening game performance which was less than stellar at under 85%. The Knights are used to peppering the goalie and getting more than 3 goals a game. The Knights are averaging 3 goals a game, but have only scored 3 times since the high scoring game 1.
I like to look at hits in a series, too. The quicker team usually gets hit more, as they skate more than hit. I was a little surprised that Washington, who in my mind would be a fast team, is crushing hits in the series – 122 to 97 – that’s more than 8 hits a game difference. The Caps seem to have figured out you can limit this Vegas team by pummeling them early and often. You would think that penalties would be Vegas’ way, but actually, they are about even on penalties. Vegas does have one more Power Play goal, but that is really not a factor yet.
So, by the numbers, it is no wonder why the Caps are looking strong for the Cup.
Individual Greatness
As a basketball guy, the team with the best player usually wins the NBA title. In hockey, that is a lot less so. This year is looking like an exception. Washington’s Alex Ovechkin is making the most out of his trip the Finals. For the hockey novice, a way to track an individual player’s impact on the game is called Points. You can get a Point by either scoring a goal or assisting on a goal. Well, Ovechkin has 14 points now in the post-season, including 2 goals and 1 assist in the 1st 3 games.
Now, Ovechkin is getting help from his teammates. Evgeny Kuznetsov (12 points in the post-season) had a 3 point game in Game 3. So, he is not doing it alone, but Alex is on a mission. The Golden Knights have to find a way to slow him down.
Upcoming Schedule
Tonight (Monday) – June 4th at 8 PM Central on NBC in Washington
Thursday – June 7th at 8 PM Central on NBC in Vegas
Sunday – June 10th at 8 PM Central on NBC in Washington (if necessary)
Wednesday – June 13th at 8 PM Central on NBC in Vegas (if necessary)
Let’s see if Vegas can get back in the series with a big win on the road tonight.
Enjoy it.
Wegs