The Conference Finals finally gave us 2 series pushed to the brink with back to back Game 7s. Maybe for most, the intrigue wasn’t there, but both teams who won were down 3-2 in their respective series and both had to win Game 7 on the road. That’s awesome. Let’s review.
Conference Finals Review
Eastern Conference
The Celtics were the Playoff Index favorite (+2.4). The Celtics looked great in Games 1 & 2, and even took Game 5. However, the greatest of Lebron shined through too much. In Game 6, the other members of the Cavs stepped up (as they did at home throughout the series). Then, in Game 7 without Kevin Love, Lebron and the Cavs slowed the game to a crawl. Boston had a lead in the 4th Quarter, but missed their final 10 three point shots. Lebron finished Game 7 with 35 points, 15 rebounds (all defensive) and 9 assists. Jeff Green stepped in and filled in for Love admirably with 19 points and 8 rebounds. The young Celtics earned some battle scars this playoffs and should be much better next year with a full squad. Still, hosting Game 7 at home against an undermanned Cavs bunch seems like a missed opportunity. Lebron is taking this motley crew to the Finals for his 8th straight trip. Incredible.
Playoff Index misses on this one, but Wegs Pool picked Lebron and the Cavs.
Western Conference
The Rockets also had the home court advantage in this series, but the Index had them as a narrow underdog (-0.4). However, the champion, Golden State Warriors took game 1 and were up 2-1, until the Rockets played 2 incredible games in Game 4 & 5 to break the Warriors home streak at 16 and putting the Ws on the brink of elimination. Unfortunately, for the Rockets, Chris Paul was hurt in the final minute of Game 5. The Warriors overcame a 17 point first quarter deficit, and simply rolled the Rockets in Game 6 by 29 behind Klay Thompson (Mother Call Him Klay) and his 35 points. In Game 7, the Rockets led by as many as 15 and 11 at the half. However, all the Warriors do is play well in the 3rd Quarter flipping the game to a 7 point advantage going into the 4th Quarter. The Rockets missed a historic 27 straight 3 point shots from the 1st half into the 4th. Meanwhile, Steph Curry got hot scoring 27 points and Kevin Durant finally got over his late game duds with 34 points and some big hits under duress in the 4th. The Warriors advance to their 4th straight NBA Finals (and their 4th against the Cavs.).
Playoff Index gets this one right, and so did I.
That makes the Index 9-5 for 64.29%, while I’m at 10-4 for 71.43%.
NBA Finals Preview
Well, if it seems like deja vu, it is. This is the 4th straight NBA Finals pitting Golden State and Cleveland against each other. That is the first time in NBA history 2 teams have played 4 straight years in the Finals.
Now, the teams may have the same jerseys, but the players are quite different. The Cavs have Lebron, JR Smith, Tristan Thomson and Kevin Love (if he plays) returning. Kyle Korver was on the team last year. Besides that, the Cavs are missing Kyrie Irving, a huge piece. The rest of the Cavs are younger guys. Jeff Green has seen some battles, but he is not the caliber of Kyrie or even the Warriors bench guys. So, as I’ve said from the outset, if Lebron is to win the title with this group, then I will finally give him his props. Maybe not better than MJ, but on par.
The Warriors have the same guys who started last year – Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. The change in the lineup moves Zaza Pachulia (who is on the bench) and puts James Looney. Andre Iguodala has missed several games now, and may not return. His absence may have doomed the Ws before the Chris Paul injury. Iggy’s ability to defend Lebron for stretches and provide some offense leaves a hole in the lineup. However, rookie Jordan Bell will probably get good minutes guarding Lebron, and Shaun Livingston (who has been playing in all 3 previous match ups) will be a key guy off the bench.
The Warriors are almost better in every category. Last year, Durant outplayed Lebron. I don’t see that happening this year the way Lebron is balling, but Lebron needs more than one guy to step up. Let’s assume Love can play. The Warriors can beat the Cavs with Durant, Steph and Klay. Draymond Green struggled in the Western Conference Finals. If he plays decent, then the Cavs will have no shot. The Warriors are a +1000 favorite right now, which means you would have to pay $1000 to win $100 in Vegas. I understand that is the largest favorite in 16 years, since the Phildelphia 76ers with Allen Iverson played the Kobe-Shaq Lakers. AI was great, but Lebron is legendary right now.
The Index is pretty straight forward here. Warriors are a heavy favorite (+5.8), that is the 2nd largest number of the playoffs this year. However, the 1st was Toronto over the Cavs at +7.2, and the Cavs swept them. It is hard to see the Cavs winning more than 2 games here. I’ll have to go with the Index and pick the Warriors in 5.
Inside the Numbers:
Warriors: 109.1 PPG in the Playoffs – 100.3 PPG Against in the Playoffs
Cavs: 101.2 PPG in the Playoffs – 99.8 PPG Against in the Playoffs
Cavs are going to have to slow the game down. They cannot keep up with the high powered Warriors. They may be able to employ the Rockets strategy that worked in Games 4 & 5, by playing physical and winning late.
Warriors: 46.2 RebPG with 36.5 Defensive RPG
Cavs: 40.2 RPG with 8.2 Offensive RPG
The Rockets were hurting the Warriors on the offensive glass. Guys like Clint Capela dominated the smaller Warriors lineup, however Kevin Love was averaging 10 Rebounds per game. Without him, I can’t see Tristan Thompson making up the difference. Still, that may be the only area, the Warriors are vulnerable.
Warriors: 10.8 Threes Made Per Game (35.2%)
Cavs: 10.3 Threes Made Per Game (30.3%)
Very even in three point shooting. I do think this is more important for the Cavs. Cavs need to stay at this clip to have a chance in the series.
Warriors: 1.9 Assist to Turnover
Cavs: 1.5 Assist to Turnover
There is not much more Lebron can do, as he is creating everything for his team. Yet, someone has to make shots for him. The Warriors are at their best when distributing the ball. If the Cavs can lure Durant in playing hero ball against Lebron, then the Cavs will have a better chance.
In the end, the Warriors look like a lock. Lebron will probably add to his 34.0 Points Per Game average in the series. Can he get his team to hold down the Warriors enough to get late game situations for his team to steal games? We will have to see.
Wegs