MLB – Quarter Season Report

I’ve said this before.  Baseball was my first love, but over the years, I just can’t do it.  The season is soooo long.  I do like watching a game or two here and there during the season.  I tune in for the playoffs.  For years, my buddies and i used to do a Home Run Derby (more on that later), so I was engaged in checking the scores daily.  Now, I check in periodically to see how things are going.  Sure, the Cubs are always a story in Chicago, but as I’ve written, I’m a Sox fan.  The Sox are just awful.  With all that said, I’ll take a look at the season after 40 games or so in.

Here is how I look at things.  1) I look at the records of teams, of course, the better teams will win, right.  2) Run Differential – this is the key stat.  Over the course of a season, the teams with the biggest run differential have proven to be the best teams. 3) Runs Scored or Runs Against – similar to Differential, some teams are much stronger one way or another and a good indicator of long term success.

Top Contenders

The best team in baseball at this point is the New York Yankees (28-12).  The young core they have in New York made a late run last year and fell just short in the American League Championship Series.  In the off season, the Yanks picked up the prize free agent, Giancarlo Stanton, who paired with 2nd year man, Aaron Judge, makes the biggest (and tallest) 1-2 punch in baseball.  Yet, they have other studs, too.  The Yanks are the team to beat with a +65 Run Differential (2nd in scoring).

2nd best team – that other AL East team, the Boston Red Sox.  Boston trails the Yankees by only 0.5 games (29-14). The Red Sox have a great line up too, and maybe better pitching with former White Sox player, Chris Sale, Rick Porcello, David Price, etc.  Both teams are killing the league.  The BoSox are +66 in Run Differential and 1st in runs scored.

3rd best team is also in the American League, defending champ, Houston Astros at 28-17.  The Astros tore things down and built back up with a superior lineup – George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa and great pitching – Dallas Keuchle and Justin Verlander.  The Astros are 1st in Run Differential at a crazy +94 with 1st in Runs against – that’s pitching and top defense.

It is hard to see one of these 3 teams not winning it all at this point, but baseball is a marathon not a sprint.

Best of the Rest

The NL East is pretty stacked this year with 3 teams within 2 games of each other.

• Atlanta Braves (26-16) has been a great surprise with a solid lineup and great pitching.  That’s a recipe to win.  At +59 run differential, the Braves are looking good (1st in NL in scoring).
• Philadelphia Phillies (24-16) are also a huge surprise in the East.  The Phils are 1st in Runs against, which pitching always wins games.  They are +42 in Run Differential.
• Washington Nationals (24-18) are the most talented team in the Division, and realistically should win this division.  Seems like the Nats are pacing themselves.

3 Other Teams that are playing well:

• Pittsburgh Pirates (25-17) are bouncing back off a bad year.  The Bucs are playing great at home at 14-6, as good as anyone.
• Milwaukee Brewers (26-18) are a young group and tied for 1st in the Central.  Can their poor 10-9 home record improve as the weather gets better.  The Brewers are winning a lot of close games, as their Run Differential is only +11, the lowest of all the division leaders.
• Arizona Diamondbacks (25-18) is a bit of smoke and mirrors, too.  They are only +18 in Run Differential, as they do not score a lot of runs.  Their pitching has carried them to this point.

Stuck in Neutral

The Chicago Cubs are 2nd in the National League in Run Differential at +51, but they are only 4 games over .500 at 22-18.  Still, the Cubs heat up as the weather turns in the Windy City.  I see the Cubs surging in the next Quarter of the season.

The AL Central is a mystery with no teams over .500 at this point.  Cleveland Indians has been in the playoffs for 2 years running and leads this bad division with the only positive Run Differential at +22.  The Twins are next at -17, but only 1.5 games back.  Cleveland, like the Cubs, should start to turn it on and jump way out in this Division.

Individual Leaders

Not surprisingly, the teams we have listed above also have the top guys individually.  The leaders will change a lot from here to the end, but it is always good to see who is hot to start.

Hitting Leaders:

Batting Leaders – Average

• Odubel Herrera, PHI is the overall leader at .357
• Mookie Betts, BOS is just behind at .355
• J.D. Martinez, BOS is next at .344
• Manny Machado, BAL is .342 (and a legit triple crown contender)
• Andrelton Simmons, LLA – .342

Home Runs

• Manny Machado, BAL at 13 is the leader with 6 others
• Bryce Harper, WAS – 13
• Jose Ramirez, CLE – 13
• Ozzie Albies, ATL – 13
• Joey Gallo, TEX – 13
• Mookie Betts, BOS – 13

Runs Batted In

• Manny Machado, BAL at 38 leads the league (2 of 3 in the crown)
• Jed Lowrie, OAK – 36
• Javier Baez, CHC – 36
• J.D. Martinez, BOS – 36
• Khris Davis, OAK – 36
• Aaron Judge, NYY – 35

Wins Above Replacement – Best Measure of Individual Success

• Mike Trout, LAA – 3.5 (clear leader)
• Francisco Lindor, CLE – 3.0
• Mookie Betts, BOS – 2.9
• Jose Ramirez, CLE – 2.8
• Andrelton Simmons, LAA – 2.3
• Freddie Freeman, ATL – 2.2 (NL Co-Leader)
• Lorenzo Cain, MIL – 2.2 (NL Co-Leader

Pitching Stats

Wins

• Max Scherzer, WAS – 7 (overall leader)
• Corey Kluber, CLE – 6
• Luis Severino, NYY – 6
• Aaron Nola, PHI – 6
• There are several at 5

Earned Run Average (to me the best indicator of pitching)

• Justin Verlander, HOU – 1.05 (this is insane)
• Carlos Martinez, STL – 1.62
• Max Scherzer, WAS – 1.69
• Gerrit Cole, HOU – 1.75
• Jacob deGrom, NYM – 1.83

Saves

• Wade Davis, COL – 15
• Edwin Diaz, SEA – 14
• Craig Kimbrel, BOS – 12
• Brad Boxberger, AZ – 12
• Brad Hand, SD – 12

In the 2nd Quarter of the season, look for teams like the Cubs and Indians to surge, more of the same performance from the Top 3 teams, and continued success by the top players listed – as they will be All Stars.

Home Run Derby Pool

Now, what is the Home Run Derby?  It’s like Fantasy Baseball Lite.

Select 8 players from any major league team.  For each player, we are tracking only Home Runs.  So, the top 5 guys on your team will count towards the total.  The Draft is just like most fantasy leagues where you do a “Snake Draft” – Person 1 gets 1st pick in the 1st Round and last pick in the 2nd round.  It is important to have an even number of players selected to be fair.

We used to track all our players for the entire 1st half (or just past, the All Star Break).  Then, the results of the 1st half are locked.  At the Break, a team can drop a player and pick up a player not selected (Free Agent) in reverse order of the standings.  You do not need to drop any players, but if you do, then you pick up a new player.  Finally, the 2nd half totals begin and are added to the 1st Half Total.

Our organizer would send out updates every 2 weeks to the group to track.

Top 2 guys win – 1st gets 70% of the Money, while 2nd gets 30%.

For me, a non-daily or Fantasy Baseball player, HR Derby was a good way to stay on top of the league.  Try it with your friends, even mid-season.

On to the 2nd Quarter of the Season!

Wegs