As the NBA playoffs are in full swing with Conference Finals alternating nights, the other teams not in the playoffs have a stake in the action tonight. Tonight at 7:30 PM Eastern/6:30 PM Central before Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Cavs, the NBA Lottery will take place right here in Chicago.
What is the NBA Lottery?
The NBA Lottery is a chance for all the teams that did not make the playoffs in this past season to get their fortunes reversed. Based on the standings of the teams, each team will have a chance to get the #1 Pick in this year’s NBA Draft which will take place on June 21st. So, each team has an adjusted probability to determine their order in the NBA Draft next month. Now, since there are 30 NBA teams and 16 make the playoffs, only the remaining 14 teams are involved in the lottery. Unlike the NFL Draft which is completely determined by record in reverse order, the NBA allows for this system for a team to jump the system. Why? Well, theoretically, the NBA wants to prevent teams from purposely losing games to obtain the 1st pick in the Draft, also known as “tanking.” Now, teams still tank for sure. The Philadelphia 76ers have been tanking for years, and now they finally have their young nucleus playing at a high level (they were eliminated in the Eastern Conference Semis by Boston).
History of the NBA Lottery
The NBA Lottery started in 1985 according to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery). In the days before the lottery, it was just the like the NFL, simple reverse order. There was a crazy rule called the “Territorial-pick” which allowed teams to take a player because he lived in the local area of the team. That territorial pick concept was eliminated in 1966. Thank goodness.
Then, the NBA used the good ole’ fashioned coin flip for the 2 teams that were worst in each division. The winner of the flip got the 1st pick and loser the 2nd.
Finally, the NBA got crafty in 1985 and started with an envelope lottery system to try to stop the teams from tanking. The envelopes had the names of teams, and then the teams were slated as they were selected out of the hopper. That system allowed an equal chance for all non-playoff teams to get the 1st selection a marked difference from the year before. The Knicks won the 1st lottery and would eventually select Georgetown Center, Patrick Ewing, a fixture for years.
In 1987, the NBA only picked the 1st 3 slots from the envelope drum to determine the order. The change was to allow the worst team to get the 4th selection at worst.
Finally, in 1990, the current weighted lottery ball system was implemented. The weighted system is similar to today’s system by allowing the worst team to have the best chance in getting the top selection. As mentioned earlier, the Orlando Magic somehow won the 1993 lottery despite only have 1 chance to get the top pick. So, you’re saying there’s a chance!!
Current Lottery System
Each team has a proportionate amount of ping pong balls like the old school lottery. Now, in reality only the Top 3 picks are actually determined by the lottery. After the top 3 picks, then the remaining teams will be ordered based on their record worst to best in reverse order.
Here is how it works according to Wikipedia:
1 – 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2 – 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3 – 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4 – 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5 – 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6 – 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7 – 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8 – 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9 – 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10 – 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11 – 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12 – 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13 – 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14 – 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
So, if you are the worst team in the league, you still have a great shot at getting that 1st pick, but there have been many cases when teams like the Orlando Magic, who won the lottery in consecutive years without the worst record.
There are changes coming to the lottery in 2019 with more balance among the Top 3 slots having equal chance at the Top Pick. This is probably meant to stop outright tanking to gain those extra ping pong balls.
Who Has the Best Chance Tonight?
The final records of the last teams are below and their likely order:
1 – Phoenix Suns – 21-61
2 – Memphis Grizzlies – 22-60
3 – Dallas Mavericks – 24-58
4 – Atlanta Hawks – 24-58
5 – Orlando Magic – 25-57
6 – Chicago Bulls – 27-55
7 – Sacramento Kings – 27-55
8 – Brooklyn Nets – 28-54 (Cleveland own this pick)
9 – New York Knicks – 29-53
10 – Los Angeles Lakers – 35-47 (Philadelphia own this pick if No.1 or 6 or later or goes to Boston No. 2-5)
11 – Charlotte Hornets – 36-46
12 – Detroit Pistons – 39-43
13 – Los Angeles Clippers – 42-40
14 – Denver Nuggets – 46-36
One of the fun things from the Draft is the teams have either former legend players representing the team or even current players, like Joel Imbiid, Philadelphia 76ers, who stole the show last year. It’s a fun event.
What Are They Wanting?
All these teams want that chance to take DeAndre Ayton, Freshman Center from Arizona. I’ll go over all the prospects next month, but Ayton is the real deal. He’s 7’0″, 260 lbs, and as athletic as any big man since Hakeem Olajuwon or other top players which excites the fan base.
So, check it out. Should be fun.
Wegs