Triple Crown – General Info & Kentucky Derby Preview

As a sports fan, I do tend to stick with the major sports.  I grew up playing baseball at a young age and played until I was 14.  I’ll always love baseball, but the game is hard to watch and the season is so long.  My dad was such a big Bears fan growing up that I adopted the Beloved myself and will be a football fan until the sports is no more.  Basketball for me was a late adoption really.  I grew up in the hey day of the Bird-Magic match ups in the Finals, but once Jordan came on the scene, I was hooked.  Of course, the NBA has gained more popularity lately, but I can only watch the playoffs.  Finally, college basketball is a particular favorite of mine.  I was a huge Georgetown fan with Patrick Ewing and died when they lost to Villanova in 1985.  I still run a big pool every year.  Besides those biggies, I do love myself Wimbeldon tennis.  Even if it only runs for 2 weeks or so.  I have friends that are more diehard, but I only keep track a bit.  Hockey is huge in Chicago, and I learned a ton about the sport with the Blackhawks multiple Stanley Cups over the past 8 years.  Why am I cataloging all of my sports affiliations?  Well, most people who are career fans have those emotional touch points with a sport, whether it is with a family member (my dad) or personal experience playing or relatives in the sport.  Sports are the complete opiate of the masses for sure, but who cares, it gives me joy and millions of people in the US and probably hundreds of millions worldwide (I see you futbol fans).

Horseracing is different than the other sports.  Why?  You can win money!!  I remember the first time my dad took me to the track in Omaha, NE to the old AK-SAR-BEN race track.  I was truly impressed how fast all the races went.  The sound of the hooves on the track.  I think we probably tried to pick a few winners, but it was very different from going to Comiskey Park.  It was all focused on betting.  As an adult, I had limited experience going to the track.  I went one time with friends, and turned a buddy’s $20 into $150 by picking a 5 of 6 winners.  That day I learned all about boxing and various bets.  I still wasn’t really hooked on the action like some of my buddies.  Then, as I sit at my desk most days on my job, I listen to tons of sports talk radio.  So, I decided to use Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg’s suggestions and did some more research boxing a Trifecta in 2016 and won like $500 on a $20 bet!!  That was it.  I’m in every year now on the Derby and the Triple Crown.  After all, I’m still playing with house money.

Triple Crown

So, real horse race fans, like my buddy, Art, go to the track all year or even out of state to put bets on the horses.  For the rest of us, the Triple Crown is the World Series of horseracing.  The Triple Crown is made up of 3 different races held at 3 different tracks of varying lengths over a 5 week period.  All horses competing are 3 year olds.  If one horse wins all 3 races, then that horse goes down in history as a Triple Crown winner.  It’s rare.

Here are some basics:

• The Races:
  • Kentucky Derby – held at Churchill Downs in Louisville Kentucky – 1st Saturday in May (this year May 5th)
  • Preakness Stakes – held at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland – 2 weeks after the Derby
  • Belmont Stakes – held at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York – 3 weeks after the Preakness
• First Triple Crown Year – 1875 (with all 3 races run)
• First Triple Crown Winner – 1919 Sir Barton (recognized in 1948)
• Number of Triple Crown Winners – 12
• Last Triple Crown Winner – American Pharoah in 2015
• Longest Drought – 37 years (1978 to 2015)

More Details:

• Kentucky Derby 
  • Date:  May 5, 2018
  • Length:  1 1/4 mile or 10 Furlongs
  • Typically, the Derby has the largest field of horses.  This year there are 20 horses.
• Preakness Stakes
  • Date:  May 19, 2018
  • Length:  1 3/16 mile or 9.5 Furlongs
  • There have been 23 horses to win the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown and not win the Belmont
• Belmont Stakes
  • Date:  June 9, 2018
  • Length:  1 1/2 mile or 12 Furlongs
  • Sometimes this field can be very small depending on if a horse is running for the Crown or some other reasons

Kentucky Derby – Deep Dive

The Derby is the biggest show for sure.  People flood Louisville to spend time at the race in the stands or on the infield.  People get all dolled up in their Derby attire complete with fastenators for the ladies and fun hats for the gents, and all of them with a mint julep in their hand.  With all the hype and hoopla, the average person can catch the race on NBC with the race starting at 6:50 PM Eastern time.

The Field:

There are 20 horses this year, and there is no clear cut favorite.  So, it should be a lot of fun to see the race and bet it.  Let’s review the horses:

According to Bleacher Report as of this post:  http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2773676-kentucky-derby-2018-odds-latest-field-betting-lines-after-post-positions-draw

1 – Firenze Fire:  40-1

2 – Free Drop Billy:  33-1

3 – Promises Fulfilled:  33-1

4 – Flameaway:  33-1 

5 – Audible:  6-1

6 – Good Magic:  11-1

7 – Justify:  4-1

8 – Lone Sailor:  50-1

9 – Hofburg:  20-1

10 – My Boy Jack:  22-1

11 – Bolt d’Oro:  9-1

12 – Enticed:  25-1

13 – Bravazo:  50-1

14 – Mendelssohn:  4-1

15 – Instilled Regard:  50-1

16 – Magnum Moon:  8-1

17 – Solomini:  22-1

18 – Vino Rosso:  16-1

19 – Noble Indy:  20-1

20 – Combatant:  40-1

For those new to racing, the list above shows you the Number the Horse will wear and their position at the gate.  So, the 1 – Horse (Firenze Fire) will be the 1st horse next to the “rail” of the track on the inside, while the 20 – Horse (Combatant) will be the farthest from the rail.

The numbers after the horse’s name is the current odds for the horse to win the race.  So, a smaller number like Justify (4-1) and Mendelssohn (4-1) are the most likely to win the race, while Instilled Regard (50-1) has the lowest chance to win the race and the larger odds horses are also called “Long Shots” to win.  Now, with that said, the odds work in that if you were to bet $1 on Justify (4-1), then you would win $4 if Justify wins the race.  However, if you bet $1 on Instilled Regard (50-1), then you would win $50 if Instilled Regard wins the race.  That’s the fun of it, cheering for your Long Shot to come home and win it.

Betting 101:

There are so many different bets possible on a horse race.  I wanted to review a few common ways to approach betting that may help you if you wish to get in on the action.

• Pick the Winner:  The simplest bet.  Pick a horse to win.  The odds are laid out for you simply, and put the amount of money you want on that horse to win the race.  Then, the odds are simply a multiplier – $1 bet pays $4 for the 4-1 favorites.  Personally, I only like to pick the Winner by itself if there is a long shot involved.  So, if I want to just take a shot on a horse, I’ll pick it to win outright.
• Pick a Horse to Place or Show:  Much like the Win bet, you could put money on a horse to come in 2nd (Place) or 3rd (Show).  Why would you do this?  Well, if you like a horse, but aren’t sure which place they will fall into, then you can bet the horse to Show.  If the horse gets in the Top 3 places, then you would win your bet.  Now, the odds to Show (or Place) will be slightly better than the Win bet.  However, it is always better to win money then to not.  Personally, I only pick a horse to Show if I’m 100% sure they are going in the Top 3 and want to hedge other bets I have.  I almost never do Place bets.
• Pick a Horse “Across the Board”:  Here is what I love about horse race betting, you can spread across your risk.  If you feel like you like a horse in the race, but don’t know which place the horse will get, then you could bet Across the Board.  Across The Board means, if your horse wins the race, then you will get paid the Win odds, Place odds and Show odds on the same horse.  If the horse Places, then you would lose your Win bet, but you would win the Place and Show bet.  Finally, if the horse just shows, then you will win the Show odds, and lose the other 2.  Here is an example:
  • Horse 1 has 4-1 (Win Odds), 3-1 (Place Odds) and 2-1 (Show Odds) – if you place a simple $1 Across The Board Bet (totaling $3 one for each Odds bet), then your horse will pay you:
    • Horse 1 wins – $9 (you profit $6 on the $3 bet)
    • Horse 1 places – $5 (you profit $2 on the $3 bet)
    • Horse 1 shows – $2 (you would lose $1 on the $3 bet)
  • Personally, this is my preferred method on betting on a winner.  It costs a little more, but you can spread your risk and cash in if the horse actually comes through in 2 of the 3 spots.
• Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta:  Now, this is where the fun comes in.  Trying to pick the Top 2 (Exacta), Top 3 (Trifecta) or Top 4 (Superfecta) in the order they come in.  Yeah, it’s really hard to do.  However, if you do, then you get the compiled odds on all the horses in the group and there are odds on the order of finish.  So, the payouts are really high.  For example in the 2017 Derby, the payouts were as follows:
  • https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/2017/05/06/kentucky-derby-2017-payout/312306001/
  • Exacta $2 – $336.20 – that’s $2 to get $336
  • Trifecta $0.50 – $4,148.60 – that’s $0.50 to get $4100!
  • Superfecta $1 – $75,974.50 – that $1 to get $76K!!! 
  • So how do you win that cash? There is a lot of information out there, but a lot of it is luck.  The key is getting the horses in the mix and order is about impossible.
• Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Box:  So, the trick of winning that big cash is the order.  A way to help with the order is to “Box” the horses.  Boxing means you pick the numbers of the horses you like, and then you will pay more for the various orders those horses can come in based on the bet (Exacta – 2 horses, Trifecta – 3 horses, Superfecta – 4 horses).  The Box allows you to win the bet if the horses you pick come in any of the orders possible.  So, as long as you have the correct horses, the order does not matter.  Here is an example:
  • You pick – Horse 1, Horse 5 and Horse 10 for the Trifecta
  • Let’s say you do a $1 Trifecta Box would cost you $6
  • If you would have hit your 3 horses boxing them in last year’s Derby, then you would have won $8,296 for that $6.
  • Now, the more horses you include in the Box (you can box more than the 4 horses in a Super, 3 horses in a Tri or 2 in the Exacta), it will just cost you more.
  • Personally, I like to do a Box of 3 or 4 horses maximum.
• More Exotic Bets:  There are a ton of other ways to bet on the race, but for me I stick to the above listed bets.

So, how do you approach the Race?  It really depends on the field.  I like to bet an amount I’m comfortable losing.  So, if you are ok going to a bar and dropping $60-100, then that is the most you should bet.  There is no reason to go crazy here.  Once you set your amount, then you can budget your bets appropriately.  Personally, I like to start with my Trifecta boxes – maybe 2 of those, and then I’ll do 1 Across the Board bet with 1 long shot Win Bet.  So, that’s like 4 bets.  Of course, you can do more, but I like to go strongly with the horses I feel good about, and then try to cover myself in those 4 bets.  My goal each year is to at a minimum win my money back in the Derby, so that way I’ll have more money for the other 2 legs of the Crown.  If I lose all of the cash, then I would sit out the next 2 races.  Thankfully, the last 2 years, I’ve been able to either profit or cover my costs to be able to use the same amount for the next 2 races.

Derby Predictions:

I like to do a lot of research on the experts picks.  Here is a site that has several predictions:

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/expert-picks

I also will listen to The Rich Eisen Show on Friday (tomorrow) and listen to Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg, again.  That dude knows his horses.

Here is a good horse by horse review:

http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/05/kentucky_derby_2018_expert_pic.html

To win the race, it seems to me to be one of the following horses:  7 -Justify (4-1), 14 – Mendelssohn (4-1), 11 – Bolt d’Oro (9-1), 6 – Good Magic (11-1), 16 – Magnum Moon (8-1), 5 – Audible (6-1).

Now, if you go with history, 7 – Justify and 16- Magnum Moon would have to beat the so called, Curse of Apollo, which means those 2 horses did not compete as 2 year olds.  The last time a horse did not compete as a 2 year old and won the Derby was 1882 by a horse name Apollo.  Also, foreign horses, like 14 – Mendelssohn, have not won the Derby in some time.  5 – Audible has too many questions for my liking.

So, I like Bolt D’Oro and Good Magic as a winner.

The other horse I’m intrigued by is 18 – Vino Rosso (16-1).

If I were betting today, then I would Box Up – Bolt D’Oro, Good Magic and one of the Favorites – Justify or Mendelssohn in a Trifecta Box.  Maybe even do 2 Tri boxes one with each of the favorites and the 2 horses I like to win.  If I am able, then I would put Vino Rosso in as my 4th horse on a Superfecta Box.

Finally, I’ll do an Across The Board bet with Good Magic or Bolt D’Oro.  Honestly, I’m going to listen to Hammerin’ Hank’s suggestions tomorrow to make my final decisions and I’ll leave a comment below when I do.

So, to summarize:  I’ll do one $5 Across The Board bet with Good Magic or Bolt D’Oro ($15).  At least one Tri Box with those 2 horses with Justify or Mendelssohn ($20-25).  Finally, I’ll do the smallest Superfecta allowed with those 3 horses and Vino Rosso ($24).   If I get crazy, then I’ll put $10 on 10 – My Boy Jack (22-1) to make it around $70-75.  Again, the goal is to leave the weekend with the $70-75 back or better for the Preakness in 2 weeks.

Who do you like this weekend?

Wegs