The NFL Draft consumed a lot of TV time this weekend. Starting on Thursday, the 4 hours covered only 32 picks. Friday, we had another 68 names called in Rounds 2-3. Finally, on Saturday, the real work went in as another 154 players were called in Rounds 4-7.
Instead of Draft grades, I’m going to go over composition numbers and them my predictions for Round predictions.
Here is how the Draft broke down by position (Compared to 2017 Draft):
DE/OLB/Edge – 39 (32)
WR – 33 (32)
CB – 26 (32)
DT – 22 (23)
RB – 22 (30)
ILB – 22 (19)
G/C – 21 (18)
S – 19 (24)
OT – 17 (15)
TE – 15 (14)
QB – 13 (10)
As you can see, the Passing Game is a premium in the NFL. The Top 3 Positions for 2 years has been the Edge/OLB/DE or generally “Pass Rushers” at the top spot, then WRs and CBs.
As important as QB is in the NFL, the last 2 years there have only been 23 QBs drafted. Plus, in the last 2 years only 12 QBs have been drafted in the 1st 3 Rounds of the Draft. I interpret this to mean, that the guys that teams perceive to be “Franchise QBs” are as valuable as any other player in the Draft and in most case more so in Round 1. However, if the NFL does not deem you to be a Franchise guy, then they are not likely to take you in the Draft at all. 8 of the 23 QBs taken in the past 2 years have come in the 1st Round.
This year we saw a big drop off at RBs drafted from 30 in 2017 to just 22 this year. Plus, the Safety position which I categorize a player if listed as a “DB” a CB in my count. So, there were 5 less Safeties this year.
Predictions:
I had a good 1st Round again this year, as documented on Friday. I picked 28 of 32 correct guys in the 1st round and 4 in the correct slots. However, my 2nd and 3rd Round percentage was abysmal. I only slotted 59.38% in the 1st 2 rounds correctly. That means that I missed graded 13 players. In the first 3 rounds I was down to 41.67% missing 26 of the 36 players. Hard to say what the issue was this year. I probably focused a little too much on the 1st round slotting than resorting my Position pages. There were some notable drops from grace like Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan who could have been a 1st Rounder, but fell to the 5th round due to a concern with his neck. There were others, but I’ll definitely have to adjust the strategy for tracking non-1st Round guys.
Hopefully, you found these posts fun. I’ll do more in advance of the Draft next year around the Senior Bowl, Combine and Pro Days.
Wegs