The NFL has become a year round sport.  Even after all the games are played, the NFL stamps each month with something so we pay attention to them.  The Draft is like the Christmas for NFL fans that people flock to the tv for a 10 second introduction of a new player for their team.  The NFL Draft used to be one long day, then a long weekend.  Now, the NFL has expanded the Draft for 3 full days with Thursday dedicated to Round 1 almost like an Oscar-like night with a Red Carpet experience.  I would say 90% of the Draft talk revolves around Round 1 – who we gonna get at #20?  Yet, after Round 1, there will be an additional 224 players taken on Friday (Rounds 2 and 3) and Saturday (Rounds 4-7).  The excitement may wane for fans a bit given most fans do not know the players selected beyond Round 1.  However, for the players being drafted, their families, all the scouts and Draft experts, the 2nd and 3rd day are really more important for the future of the franchises.

Why Pay Attention?

So, Round 1 is over, and the real work begins.  Round 2 and 3 starts Friday with hopes of drafting the next the Saints’ Drew Brees (Round 2 – 32nd Pick Overall in 2001) or also a Saint, Alvin Kamara, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year (Round 3 – Pick 67) or the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson (Round 3 – 75th Pick Overall in 2012).

Saturday, is when Draft scouts make their money.  Your team could pick a Richard Sherman, now with the 49ers (Round 5 – Pick 154 in 2011) or the best pick of all time, Patriots’ Tom Brady (Round 6 – Pick 199 in 2000) – not bad for a final day pick.

It’s pretty clear that your team will get better faster and for a longer period, if your team can make deft selections after Round 1.  I liken the Draft to the old golf saying, “Drive for Show, Putt for Dough.”  For me, Day 1 is the NFL drive, a lot of show, fancy and gets all the attention, but the Day 2 and especially Day 3 is where the best GMs and teams make their money.

Players to Watch

So, how do we get beyond all the Day 1 hype?  The easy answer is dig a bit deeper.  There can only be 32 players selected in Round 1.  There are tons of good players eligible to be selected.

A Cut Below – Round 2 often shows players that are just outside of the Round 1 grade.  Maybe the 4th best at a position or perhaps off the field issues or injuries hurt the individual players stock which puts them out of Round 1.  In reviewing the Mocks I mentioned in yesterday’s post, the percentage of these players is not as strong as others.  Here are some players that should fall into this category:

  • QBs  
    • Lamar Jackson, Louisville (71% in 1st Rd) – he may be selected in the 1st Round, very talented, but not prototypical at the positon.  He could easily fall in the Draft.
    • Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (29% in 1st Rd) – Another QB of note is from a pass first college offense with good size and arm talent
  • RBs
    • Derrius Guice, LSU (43%) – RBs are not as valued as they used to be.  I have seen projections of as little as 1 RB in the 1st Round.
    • Sony Michel, Georgia (43%) has been seen in several mocks in the 1st round, but like Guice may fall
  • CBs – The NFL needs guys who can cover, but parsing out who is 1st Round worthy is tough.
    • Joshua Jackson, Iowa (86%) – super athletic with great ball skills
    • Jaire Alexander, Louisville (71%) – quick and aggressive player
    • Mike Hughes, UCF (71%) – instinctive cover CB
  • Offensive Line – This class is not as strong as past years.  There are several players that could jump up into Round 1 or at the top of Round 2.
    • Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA (86%) is a tall, athletic guy who will probably go Round 1, but he could fall given his lack of strength on his frame
    • James Daniels, C/OG, Iowa (57%) is the best Center in the draft, but Center is not as high a priority as other line positions
    • Isaiah Wynn, OG, Georgia (43%) is a great player, but moving from OT in college to OG and injured in Senior Bowl
  • WRs – Receivers are a premium in the NFL, but this class and recent classes have not performed as rookies.  So, this group has been discounted.
    • DJ Moore, Maryland (71%) – crazy numbers at the combine with modest production
    • Courtland Sutton, SMU (43%) – Tall and athletic, but raw
    • Christian Kirk, Texas A&M (14%) – Tough and good route runner, but poor showing in explosive tests and quickness
  • Safeties – A valuable position in today’s NFL, but not the strongest group this year.
    • Justin Reid, Stanford (29%) – has risen up after a great Combine, but still fringe Round 1 guy
    • Ronnie Harrison, Alabama (29%) – Was a top guy going into the Combine but not like Top 2 guys

All of the guys listed here will be drafted in the first 2 rounds barring a crazy video or story circulating.  All could grade out to be a 1st Round player, so somebody in the 2nd Round will be delighted.

Potential 2nd and 3rd Round Starters – The 2nd and 3rd Round still should provide a team starters who can walk in Day 1.  Here are a few that will be there:

  • Defensive Line and Edge (DT/DE/OLB) – these guys can be rotational pass rushers for most teams
    • Lorenzo Carter, DE/OLB, Georgia – rangy and very athletic player with raw techniques
    • Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State – strong, technical player who can contribute now
    • Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Oklahoma – most likely a pass rush specialist
    • Arden Key, DE, LSU – Athletic pass rush guy who can get on the field and make plays
    • Harrison Phillips, DT, Stanford – strong defensive tackle with quickness
    • Da’Shawn Hand, DE, Alabama – a big defensive end that can play inside of a 3-4
  • Running Backs – More immediate contributors
    • Nick Chubb, Georgia – recovered well off an injury and produced
    • Ronald Jones, USC – fast, smooth runner with NFL traits
    • Kerryon Johnson, Auburn – a strong, explosive runner from a school that gave him the rock
  • More Defensive Backs – All these guys can play now
    • Carrolton Davis, CB, Auburn – really solid and physical corner
    • Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado – taller athletic corner with good speed
    • Jessie Bates, S, Wake Forest – instinctual safety ready for the NFL

Drafting Potential – The rest of the Draft is a mix of functional players that can fit a role in a squad to hitting a home run at a position.  The home run guy is picking a smaller school player who can jump up in competition or under-rated players that can work their way into weekly starters.  I’m going to focus on a few of those guys:

  • Nathan Shepard, DT, Fort Hayes State – 6’4″ and 315 lbs, played at a small school, but has all the right metrics to succeed in the NFL
  • Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond – the best non-major college QB prospect this year with NFL ability. He will likely go in Round 3 or later, but could be a starter in the league.
  • Mark Walton, RB, Miami – Walton is coming off major knee surgery, but his ability pre-injury was incredible.  He could be this year’s late round RB a la Jordan Howard (RD 5, 150th Pick – 2016) or Kareem Hunt (RD 3, 86th Pick – 2017)
  • Nick DeLuca, ILB, North Dakota State – 6’3″, 251 lbs who can make tackles everywhere on the field
  • Ostman, Edge, Central Michigan – 6’3″ and 255 lbs, a bit undersized for a rush end, but has been getting good buzz
  • Shaquem Griffin, ILB, UCF – Griffin was the talk of the Combine.  He only has one hand, and he still impressed in drills and ran the fastest LB 40 time ever recorded at 4.38.  I’m pulling for this guy.
  • Michael Joseph, CB, Dubuque – 6’1″ and 187 lbs, so taller guy who flashed at the Senior Bowl
  • Alex Cappa, OT, Humboldt State – 6’6″ and 305 lbs.  This guy plays with a fury.  He needs to jump up on competition, but he could be a nasty lineman.

Of course, these are just a few names, but to make it interesting, I try to use the Draft Profiles and the various podcasts to rate players by Round.  I track my predictions based on number of players aligned in Round 1, 2 and 3.  It makes the process more meaningful to me.

Tomorrow, I’ll go over the 1st Round Pool idea that I do, which makes Draft Night on Thursday even more exciting.

How do you track the Draft?  Share your ideas below.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.

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